Projects Vs. Prospects

Only one rotation spot is up for grabs as we roll into spring, and it likely won’t be a long term gig, as Pineda returns 39 games into the season. The fifth spot has several competitors.

Jhoulys Chacín - 103.1 IP, 6.01 ERA, 5.88 FIP, .280/.356/.521 against

Chacin is believed by some to be the favorite for the fifth rotation spot despite everything bottoming out in 2019. If you’re looking at his numbers wondering why the Twins even gave him a call, it’s because prior to 2019 he sported a 3.86 ERA in over 1,200 innings in his career. He was starting playoff games for Milwaukee just two years ago and still managed a 25.7% whiff rate on the slider that’s carried him to this point in his career. If the Twins can adjust anything with Chacín to bring him near the No. 2 or 3 pitcher he was in Milwaukee, he slots in well for the fifth spot and gives you more than you can realistically ask from any of the rookies.

Randy Dobnak - 28.1 IP, 1.59 ERA, 2.90 FIP, .245/.297/.300 against

Lewis Thorpe - 27.2 IP, 6.18 ERA, 3.47 FIP, .336/.387/.531 against

Devin Smeltzer - 49 IP, 3.86 ERA, 4.58 FIP, .265/.312/.466 against

Here we have three young pitchers who you could easily argue, based on their 2019 performances, are more deserving of a rotation spot than Chacín . Even Thorpe’s ugly looking numbers are balanced by his 3.47 FIP, likely due to his .438 BABIP allowed. So why would Chacín be in consideration for it? The first thought is that he can have explosive value for a non-roster invite if he returns to form. His history says he’s at least capable, while the other three have had success in relatively small sample sizes to start their careers. Also consider Pineda’s return. Do the Twins want a young guy to settle in for six weeks and then have his role in flux?

The bullpen had a spot open up just recently as the front office used their bullpen depth to add to their rotation depth by trading Brusdar Graterol for Kenta Maeda. Let’s call this 1.5 spots up for grabs.

Matt Wisler: 51.1 IP, 5.61 ERA, 4.23 FIP, .272/.323/.490 against

A former top 100 prospect, Wisler was brought in on a guaranteed contract this winter to take a spot in a bullpen with a surprising amount of depth. His FIP being a run and a half lower suggests he may have gotten unlucky. Look no further than his home run to fly ball rate at 18.2%, almost double what the league average normally is. He also has an absurd slider to work with, which earned a 40.8 whiff%. While everything but the slider got crushed in 2019 for Wisler, finding just one more effective pitch could make him a valuable reliever. While it’s not certain, I’d expect Wisler, being out of options, to hold his role with that guaranteed contract when the team heads north, leaving only one bullpen spot remaining.

Cody Stashak: 25 IP, 3.24 ERA, 3.01 FIP, .287/.298/.475 against

Fernando Romero: 14 IP, 7.07 ERA, 5.07 FIP, .317/.431/.483 against

Stashak was money in his debut season, so it’s easy to want him to nab the final spot given his performance compared to Romero’s. You may even be asking what the question is here. Nick Nelson had a nice write up on why you shouldn’t just rule the hard-throwing righty out. He’s got the raw skills you dream of in a reliever, and 2020 is his last option year. It would be nice to give him another chance in the majors in low leverage to live up to his pedigree. If you disagree, also consider that one of the young guys who lost out on a rotation spot could transition to long relief to begin the year. You could solidly argue that the Twins might make better use of two bullpen spots rather than counting on improvement from Wisler.

What the final decision may come down to is the confidence the Twins have in betting on themselves. They’d be betting on their ability to identify hidden talent and value, as well as their coaching staff’s ability to bring it to the forefront. It’s easy to say “stash the young arms in the minors in case we need them”, but they’re looking ready for a major league role after most performed better last season than the projects the front office brought in this winter. A lot of them possess a fair amount of upside themselves.

Consider the depth that this team has in all facets, as well as the fact that they’re coming off of 101 wins with a wide open window. Do you feel comfortable with the Twins’ ability to make something of these pitchers coming off rough seasons? Or would you prefer they run with the younger, mostly unproven arms of which little is known at this point? Let us know below.

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