Projecting the Twins Opening Day Roster: Version 3.0

Is Happ actually injured?

Only in the sense of having gotten a late start because of COVID. 

How about Gordon? Time to move on.

Why? He's a quality player with the worst luck I've seen in a while. Gordon was playing about as well as Arraez in 2019 at AAA when he got hurt and missed a window for a call-up. He got COVID last year and never had a chance to show anything in games for 2020. everything about him shows a floor as a utility guy in MLB with an upside as a hitter. If he's cut off the 40-man, he'll get snapped up immediately. 

Smeltzer or Anderson at least have a chance to slide through waivers; Smeltzer is a classic back of the 40-man guy (some upside, reasons to have hope he might figure it out, but not a great track record of success in the majors/red flags in his MLB performance), and Anderson is a reliever with control issues who ain't 22 any longer.

I'd cut Smeltzer, who right now looks like he's 10th or so in line to start a game for the Twins right now (Donak is currently 6th, followed by some combination of Thorpe, Duran, and Balazovic...but even Ober might jump ahead of Smeltzer if the injury parade really crushed the starters)

Twins don't need 3 catchers. Garver and Jeffers will do fine splitting the duties. Take Astudillo off the roster and add Garlick. I don't trust that Buxton will stay healthy and I don't trust Kepler to perform offensively right away. This gives more OF options. 

You are changing the scenario. In Cody's proposed roster, Astudillo is a 2nd back-up. If Simmons goes down, Polanco goes to SS, Arraez to 2B, NO Astudillo.  If Polanco or Donaldson goes down, Arraez takes his place, NO Astudillo. Astudillo is there if your backup goes down too.

 

Now, would I still keep Riddle instead of Astudillo? Probably. I don't really see the need for 3 catchers.

I would still rather have Riddle over two middle infielders who lost their starting spots because they couldn’t field the position .

Why? He's a quality player with the worst luck I've seen in a while. Gordon was playing about as well as Arraez in 2019 at AAA when he got hurt and missed a window for a call-up. He got COVID last year and never had a chance to show anything in games for 2020. everything about him shows a floor as a utility guy in MLB with an upside as a hitter. If he's cut off the 40-man, he'll get snapped up immediately. 

 

 

I agree with your analysis on Gordon but unless you see Lewis starting next year one of the infielders has to go next year.  It looks to be either Blankenhorn or Gordon.  Blankenhorn better fits the Twins, hard hit rate, homer prone bat than Gordon, and Gordon is nothing special defensively either.  While I agree he has value I don't think it is enough to keep him past this year. 

While I concur just cutting him makes little sense they could try and trade him but it probably makes more sense to see if his bat can lift his value.  At any rate they could decide to move on from him sooner rather than later depending on how they see things, but to your point Smeltzer makes more sense.

 

Now, would I still keep Riddle instead of Astudillo? Probably. I don't really see the need for 3 catchers.

Astudillo has been seeing time at 1B this Spring and has him providing more defensive flexibility.  

Thus he should not be considered "just" a 3rd string catcher, but as a versatile 26th man as others have suggested.

Dobnak and Stashak should share a hotel room, since they'll probably be sharing a taxi back across the river within two weeks of opening day. 

All spring I think I saw Astudillo totally whiff on one swing, which caused a commotion on the bench. Torts looked pissed, so he rifled the next pitch so hard to left field, it skipped over the low fence and scared the fans. Musta been going 110 mph off his bat. The guy must have the highest hard contact rate per swing in the league. Obviously Baldelli sees him as a great RBI guy. Looking for ways to keep that bat in the lineup. With a runner on 2nd and 0 or 1 out, who would you rather step up than Astudillo?

Pretty good lineup, but I don't expect it to stay that way for long. I miss Eddie already.

The drop from the 40-man is tough - looks like either Anderson or Devin Smeltzer to me.  I think with Devin's numbers this spring, he'd have a better chance of making it through waivers.

Just a minor quibble on this one.

Personally, I think never enough starting pitcher depth, so I'd keep Smeltzer (unless there is something going on that we don't know about causing his slump)

Anderson was the wild thing and not in a good way. Let a non-contender watch him walk people ad nauseam

Just a weak opinion though on this

Thorpe was optioned today, which should lock Dobnak into a spot as the long reliever. Not sure who's left to be optioned, but I saw Law was not among them.

Aaaaaaaaaaaaand Thorpe was just optioned.

I have to believe Rogers, Colome, Duffey, and Alcala all have spots.  Robles likely as well since they are paying him 2M they aren't going to cut him loose this early.  So that is 5 out the seven right there.

We haven't seen Colina pitch this spring so seems unlikely he would be a legitimate option but if he is still in camp maybe?

I already had Thielbar and Stashak penciled in to start earlier.  They are both on the 40 man so would seem to have the inside track.  I guess the question is are they willing to bump someone off the 40 to add Law or Waddell?  They both have pitched really well the last couple of times out. 

Would they replace Thielbar with Waddell?  Seems early to do something like that and Waddell doesn't have much MLB experience and seems to have just learned a new pitch or how to make his pitches more effective so maybe some time at AAA before adding someone like him?

Law doesn't have an opt out until August but he has pitched really well this spring so far.  His WHIP has never been this elite before in fact if you look back at his stats he generally had more hits than innings pitched and plenty of walks to boot.  If he has better control of his pitches and the new found ability to miss bats he could be a force in the pen.  Spring means so little it seems almost impossible to know if this is something he can keep up or not but if the Twins think he can again would they add him and drop or trade someone from the 40 man?

It looks like they will be evaluating those 4 guys to the bitter end to see what makes the most sense.  Stashak does have options so they can move him around.  Not sure if Thielbar has any options left or not but the only way I see them moving him is if they were to add Waddell so lefty for lefty.  Gonna be some suspense to the end of the month.

I prefer Thorpe or Dobnak starting over Shoemaker. Obviously Thorpe isn’t happening now but Dobnak not happening either isn’t great. Hopefully my gut is wrong about Shoemaker. 

I prefer Thorpe or Dobnak starting over Shoemaker. Obviously Thorpe isn’t happening now but Dobnak not happening either isn’t great. Hopefully my gut is wrong about Shoemaker. 

Yeah Dobnak has been awfully dominant this spring seems hard to keep him out of the starting five but hopefully Shoemaker does well.

Dobnak is the story of the spring as far as pitching goes for the Twins.

Still getting ground ball outs, but has added K's to his repetoire.

Opposing batters are not reading his new slider as it comes out of the same slot as his diving sinker.

A trade would be ideal. Short of that happening, I am not worried about loosing Smeltzer if they believe in "the Law".  

Agree, I am not that high on Smeltzer.  He is a nice story, but has not run away with his chances yet.  He may actually make it through waivers as well. 

Well I might’ve been too hard on Astudillo. I mean if he proves this season he can hit then I wouldn’t mind having him on the roster. But if he can’t then he shouldn’t be on the playoff roster.

I can’t complain too much with AK being optioned to the alternate site. Broxton, Garlick, and Rooker all look like better options at this point in time. Although, could they’ve found a spot for him? I’d rather see him on the roster than...IDK...Smeltzer.

Smeltzer was optioned 4-5 days before AK. 

I'm still a Thorpe believer, but I think they have to commit to him to the pen before they fall into the classic trap of trying too long to make a lefty starter out of a lefty reliever only for the player's next team to realize his potential.

I completely get that and normally I absolutely agree but I still think Thorpe is a starter. He’s better as a starter than Perkins or Hendriks ever were. Hendriks is obviously not a lefty but those were two “should have always been relievers” that I could think of off the top of my head. 
 

My worry is they give up on starting (I can’t say too soon because he’s been starting awhile now) and he becomes some other teams 3rd or 4th starter. I’d much rather have a 3rd starter than a reliever. Maybe I am wrong. I probably am. And I know that scenario is probably so rare and if they did switch him right now to a RP I believe he would succeed and would never get to another team anyway but I just don’t think they can give up on it yet. 

There is still plenty of time to make him a permanent RP even after this one last shot, if they give it to him. They may not have options left on him after this year if he stays down long enough but I think he’d have the skills to pick up relief very fast so I don’t worry about losing him in the way you mentioned as long as they give him a chance which they didn’t with Hendriks. 

Just a minor quibble on this one.

 

Personally, I think never enough starting pitcher depth, so I'd keep Smeltzer (unless there is something going on that we don't know about causing his slump)

 

Anderson was the wild thing and not in a good way. Let a non-contender watch him walk people ad nauseam

 

Just a weak opinion though on this

My guess is the Twins value Devin more than this board does and starting pitching especially lefties in our system are hard to come by, so you might be right.

For me and my untrained eye though Devin hasn't been "good" since his debut, isn't a hard thrower and has likely reached his ceiling. While he has pretty strong 5th starter upside after this year we will likely have several better options.  They could keep him for depth though because if they have a ton of injuries this year he is likely our best option behind Dobnak and Thorpe. So getting rid of him early could hurt later but hard to say.

Like you I have not been impressed with the wild Anderson.  The thing is he has elite spin rates which are hard to come by and he throws hard.  His ceiling is shut down elite reliever.  Can he ever gain enough control to become that?  Hard to say, but given the fact the Twins just traded for him it would seem odd to just give him away without even trying to fix his control issues.  I don't see them dropping him this early.

Back to Law.  If Derek has turned a corner and has his pitches under control and new K ability we could certainly use another shut down pen arm to start the season.  Losing Smeltzer who may not even be needed this year and almost certainly not next year for someone we could use day one is the decision that needs to be made.  They certainly can delay that decision since Law doesn't have an opt out but to me that is the trade off they have in front of them.  I guess we'll find out what they think soon enough.