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  • Pondering a Nelson Cruz Reunion


    Cody Christie

    For two seasons, Nelson Cruz was the heart and soul of the Twins lineup. Will the front office consider a reunion with Boomstick with the trade deadline looming?

     

    Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

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    In recent years, Nelson Cruz seemed to be defying Father Time. From age 38 to 40 seasons, he posted a 151 OPS+ while averaging 30 home runs per season. At an age when many players are significantly declining, he was accomplishing things few players had done in their careers. Cruz had many memorable moments with the Twins, and his lasting legacy may be the players the Twins received when trading him to Tampa Bay. 

    The Twins had an opportunity to bring Cruz back for the 2022 season, but the National League adding the designated hitter created other opportunities for his services. He signed a one-year $12 million deal with the Nationals and got off to a slow start. Cruz ended the month of April with a .479 OPS and more strikeouts (17) than hits (13). It looked like Father Time had caught up to the slugger, but then something clicked. From May 6 through July 3, Cruz hit .289/.367/.449 (.816) with 12 doubles and six home runs in 51 games. He might not produce like the old Boomstick, but he is undoubtedly an above-average hitter in a declining offensive environment.

    Other Statcast numbers also point to Cruz being closer to his former self. He ranks in the 70th percentile or higher in average exit velocity, hard-hit %, xwOBA, xSLG, and BB%. His Barrel percentage is among the league’s best as he nearly ranks in the 90th percentile. There is a lot of season left, and Cruz has something contending teams may be interested in adding to their roster. 

    Some contending teams looking for a bench bat may be scared away by Cruz’s age, and his performance declined in the second half of 2021. After the Twins traded Cruz, he hit .226/.283/.442 (.725) with eight doubles and 13 home runs in 55 games. Both Tampa Bay and Cruz struggled in the playoffs as he went 3-for-17 (.176 BA) and the Red Sox eliminated the Rays. The 162-game schedule can be grueling for players, especially for those over the age of 40. 

    For the 2022 Twins, Cruz may be a superfluous addition to the roster. Adding him would allow Ryan Jeffers and Gary Sanchez to get more regular rest on the days they aren’t catching. Miguel Sano is on track to return to the roster in the second half and doesn’t have a clear path to playing time. Cruz was a vocal leader in the clubhouse, but the Twins players and coaches have been adamant about the difference in clubhouse culture this season. Other players have taken on the leadership role, which seems to work for the club. 

    This year’s trade deadline is also different from previous years due to the expansion of teams in the playoffs and the National League having the DH. More teams are in contention, and more teams will be interested in adding a big bat for the stretch run. It remains to be seen if Cruz can continue his hot-hitting ways or will this finally be the season where Father Time comes calling. 

    Do you think the Twins should try and acquire Cruz? How do you predict he will do in the season’s second half? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

     

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    4 hours ago, srlarson said:

    no.....and can we also not have Sanchez and Jeffers both in the lineup.....we have enough bats (that can actually hit) to not have these guys and their feeble swings both in the lineup......was hoping for more out of Sanchez......but at least a short deal.  

    It seems Cruz would actually fill that role.

    But I think you're proposing some type of Sano/Larnach/Miranda/Arraez/Garlick rotation at DH (in a dream scenario where the team is mostly healthy).

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    12 minutes ago, RpR said:

    What magic says they can even hit major league pitching?

    What makes you think a 42-year-old can?

    I count 13 42-year-olds (batters) who've had at least 100 PA this century. The odds of Cruz succeeding look worse than the odds that a 24-year-old in AAA succeeding.

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    I would consider the move, depending on several factors - I'd like to get Sanchez out of the DH spot, but it may take an injury and a very cheap cost of the trade (no way I'd give up 2 #10-20 prospects like Tampa did). But the bullpen needs to be addressed first and probably another starter for the rotation would be wise... 

    I am concerned that he may not play well down the stretch like he did last year... but I'd still take him over having the Jeffers/Sanchez combo at C/DH in a playoff game. Will Larnach/Miranda/Steer be competent options for that DH spot? Will Garlick still be eating lefties alive? It's hard to say. I'd probably pass, but it depends where we are in 4 weeks' time.

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    24 minutes ago, RpR said:

    What magic says they can even hit major league pitching?

    Players whose bats are dominating the high minors usually can hit at the mlb level. No magic required, just look at the stats. Plus, read the descriptions from pundits. Both guys are predicted to hit at the top level. 

    Your point should be that there's usually a time lag before a rookie "figures it out" at the plate, and that's true. No problem there for Nelson Cruz. On the other hand, you could still bring up Spencer Steer, then platoon him with Kirilloff at DH and 1B. Another super-sub won't hurt, especially if he figures it out fairly quickly. Then you would have Steer and Gordon for IF, and Gordon and Celestino for OF. Three subs that can hit. 

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    13 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

    What makes you think a 42-year-old can?

    I count 13 42-year-olds (batters) who've had at least 100 PA this century. The odds of Cruz succeeding look worse than the odds that a 24-year-old in AAA succeeding.

    image.png.f4704e290a8e84d03b4aaf379abd9ec6.png

    image.png.cf5620991567fecca29c3a7feaf698ea.png

    Not hitting as many Bombas yet but he hit 21 doubles last year and already has 12 this year with 46 rbi.

    Your fabled rookies would be below the Mendoza line.

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    On 7/6/2022 at 1:53 PM, RpR said:

    image.png.f4704e290a8e84d03b4aaf379abd9ec6.png

    image.png.cf5620991567fecca29c3a7feaf698ea.png

    Not hitting as many Bombas yet but he hit 21 doubles last year and already has 12 this year with 46 rbi.

    Your fabled rookies would be below the Mendoza line.

    He has an OPS of .691 and he ONLY DHs. The Twins 24-year-olds Kirilloff, Celestino, Arraez, Larnach and Lewis all have done better than that. The only youngsters that haven't topped that mark are Jeffers, Jermaine Palacios in his measly 8 games and Jose Miranda who will probably eclipse that number if he gets a hit today.

    I like Cruz and I've already said it's not the worst idea in the world, but complaining about young players when the team is winning BECAUSE of the young players isn't a great look.

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    Grumpy Cat No GIF by Internet Cat Video Festival

    The only reason I could see to bring him back would be his leadership. But that's not what it appears the 2022 version of the Twins need.  What they need is another arm upgrade (or two) in the bullpen, not another bat at an extreme price.  To the point(s) made earlier in the thread, there are too many younger bats that need consistent reps right now (Kirilloff, Miranda, Gordon specifically) and adding Cruz would chip away at those.  It also means on days where Buck or Kep need a light day then they are out of the lineup entirely unless called on to pinch hit.

    I'd rather everyone get slightly more reps.

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    6 hours ago, Sean.h said:

    We need bullpen help. On another note though, what do you think about Cruz's HOF chances? A good 2022 would have bolstered his case no doubt. The shortened 2020 season didn't help either.

    No chance, especially with the PED suspension. 

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    I would love to hear that conversation with Jim Pohlad.  Hey Jim, what do you think of this idea.  Let’s bring in Nelson Cruz who did very little for the Rays last year when they traded away a very good SP for him.  It will cost us $4M in salary plus a $3M buyout and prospect capital.   Prospect(s) plus $7M

    Jim Pohlad ... How has he been hitting.  Falvey ... wRC+ of 88.  However, he has been better lately.  Since June 1st his wRC+ is 107.

    Pohlad ... So, what are your options without Cruz.  Falvey ... We could rotate Arraez / Kirilloff and Miranda at DH.  Pohlad ... How have they done lately (since June 1)  Falvey .... 155/144/133 respectively.  Pohlad .... Derek, have you been drinking?

    Of course, none of this takes into consideration that the other players can play a defensive position.  The FO would consider this for 30 seconds or less because that's about how long it takes to realize the information above.

     

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    2 hours ago, HokieRif said:

    Grumpy Cat No GIF by Internet Cat Video Festival

    The only reason I could see to bring him back would be his leadership. But that's not what it appears the 2022 version of the Twins need.  What they need is another arm upgrade (or two) in the bullpen, not another bat at an extreme price.  To the point(s) made earlier in the thread, there are too many younger bats that need consistent reps right now (Kirilloff, Miranda, Gordon specifically) and adding Cruz would chip away at those.  It also means on days where Buck or Kep need a light day then they are out of the lineup entirely unless called on to pinch hit.

    I'd rather everyone get slightly more reps.

    I'm honestly indifferent about bringing him back.

    But a first place team should be playing to win now, not making sure their utility player gets more ABs.

    And, with Rocco's rest cycle, everybody will get their ABs...

     

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    On 7/6/2022 at 4:14 PM, Major League Ready said:

    I would love to hear that conversation with Jim Pohlad.  Hey Jim, what do you think of this idea.  Let’s bring in Nelson Cruz who did very little for the Rays last year when they traded away a very good SP for him.  It will cost us $4M in salary plus a $3M buyout and prospect capital.   Prospect(s) plus $7M

    Jim Pohlad ... How has he been hitting.  Falvey ... wRC+ of 88.  However, he has been better lately.  Since June 1st his wRC+ is 107.

    Pohlad ... So, what are your options without Cruz.  Falvey ... We could rotate Arraez / Kirilloff and Miranda at DH.  Pohlad ... How have they done lately (since June 1)  Falvey .... 155/144/133 respectively.  Pohlad .... Derek, have you been drinking?

    Of course, none of this takes into consideration that the other players can play a defensive position.  The FO would consider this for 30 seconds or less because that's about how long it takes to realize the information above.

     

    I honestly don’t think Jim Pohlad would balk at that price tag. 
     

    Not saying the Twins would or should take that salary on as there are bigger fish to fry, but if Falvey told him it was the best move, I think he’d do it.

    Of course if we wanted to paint Pohlad in that dollars and cents light, there are likely few players who would move the needle of casual Twins fans like the return of fan-favorite Nelson Cruz. Not 7M worth, but certainly his presence would produce some dividends.

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    19 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

    I honestly don’t think Jim Pohlad would balk at that price tag. 
     

    Not saying the Twins would or should take that salary on as there are bigger fish to fry, but if Falvey told him it was the best move, I think he’d do it.

    Of course if we wanted to paint Pohlad in that dollars and cents light, there are likely few players who would move the needle of casual Twins fans like the return of fan-favorite Nelson Cruz. Not 7M worth, but certainly his presence would produce some dividends.

    I agree the dollars wouldn't get in the way if it were a good value proposition.  However, every business decision has an investment vs payoff component which is why I framed it this way.  I could have left out the dollars because it would be a poor decision if it cost nothing.

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