Parting Gifts: Ryan's 5 Best Final Moves

tobi0040 · July 25, 2016

There were some moves that over the first half look good.

But let’s take a step back. Almost all these guys listed here are placeholders and many could be traded in the next six days for a minimal return (Abad, Kintzler, Boshers, and Nunez).

alarp33 · July 25, 2016

3.) Even if they never trade Abad he's been a great boon for this year. I shudder to think how much worse the dregs of the first half would have been without him.

Well, they only won 3 of the 1st 18 games he appeared in... so probably not much worse

Otto von Ballpark · July 25, 2016

Bottom line is that Herrmann was on his way out, and rightfully so. Ryan got something of actual value for him, which is a win, regardless of what happens going forward.

It's pretty amusing to watch some of the hindsight judgments playing out here, though. I had completely forgotten what big Herrmann supporters you all were!

Palka is of actual value? He is an interesting corner power prospect. I am not sure we could turn around and trade him for anything more than Herrmann today. He might have more value in the future, IF he can make that big step to MLB and provide enough offense to offset his defensive/positional limitations.

It is also pretty amusing to read how valuable that catchers are, hence why Herrmann was able to be traded for "actual value", but then see those same people completely ignore any performance or value that Herrmann provides...

Han Joelo · July 25, 2016

These were all excellent moves. Unfortunately, most of the relief options had to 'percolate' for a while before they emerged or were given the chance, meanwhile the early season bullpen was awful and made significant backbreaking contributions to the death spiral. Perhaps a high priced, big name signee would have been utilized earlier--the Twins couldn't have gone to Kintzler in the early season because he was still in Rochester. Perhaps. Or it would be just another lousy contract to dump. TR wasn't good at the big moves? Well, maybe he was pretty decent--many of the big deals are the ones you DON'T sign.

It seems to me the only way to be good at 'big' deals is to sign only the absolute top tier free agents, vastly overpaying as you do, eating gobs of money in the end, and even then your odds are about 50/50.

Otto von Ballpark · July 25, 2016

1.) Chris Hermann = small sample size. He's never done this in the majors or the minors and it's in only 145 at bats. He's never profiled as even a decent backup catcher defensively. I'm ready to call it a win for the Twins even if Palka never pans out. Hermann had no place with the Twins going forward (especially with the JRM, Centeno and Hick deals - no one would have wanted Hermann over any of those guys this last offseason). Trading someone with Hermann's ground-level ceiling for anything decent is a good idea.

2.) It's time we stopped bemoaning John Hicks. You can sign a John Hicks caliber player in the offseason any time you want. The Twins have internal options in Centeno, Garver and JRM that are sufficient. Never has a bit player been so mourned as the case of the late John Hicks.

Wait, so Herrmann was expendable because we had John Hicks (although I seem to recall he was claimed after Herrmann was traded)... and in the very next point, John Hicks was expendable for David Murphy too. Got it.

What great catching depth we must have! Why are people worried about the position at all going forward? Seems crazy, the way you portray it.

Otto von Ballpark · July 25, 2016

Agreed... I thought I was about the only Herrmann supporter around these parts the last couple of years, and even I was amazed that they got so much for him in a trade, knowing he was out of options and unlikely to stick around.

I also am glad people are starting to realize that building a bullpen via high priced options is never a good thing. Abad, aside from last year, was right in line with the likes of Sipp and to some degree Bastardo. Kintzler was solid before the knee injury. Unless you're talking about the likes of Chapman and MIller, they all need to be put in a similar bucket.

So does TR deserve criticism for not putting Kintzler and Abad in the same bucket to start the season, and paying Perkins, Jepsen, and Fien and pilfering May from the rotation instead?

I mean, it is nice that some guys are performing in the pen right now, but TR spent ~$13 mil (and a potential SP) on his pen and watched it fail first. That seems to offset whatever credit TR deserves at this point for Abad, Kintzler, and Boshers (pending a trade for "actual value").

Mike Sixel · July 25, 2016

These were all excellent moves. Unfortunately, most of the relief options had to 'percolate' for a while before they emerged or were given the chance, meanwhile the early season bullpen was awful and made significant backbreaking contributions to the death spiral. Perhaps a high priced, big name signee would have been utilized earlier--the Twins couldn't have gone to Kintzler in the early season because he was still in Rochester. Perhaps. Or it would be just another lousy contract to dump. TR wasn't good at the big moves? Well, maybe he was pretty decent--many of the big deals are the ones you DON'T sign.

It seems to me the only way to be good at 'big' deals is to sign only the absolute top tier free agents, vastly overpaying as you do, eating gobs of money in the end, and even then your odds are about 50/50.

or do a better job of trading......

Otto von Ballpark · July 25, 2016

Depending on how you value Hu and Tapia, it seems that TR ultimately paid the equivalent of Bastardo's contract (2/12) for Jepsen. And of course, Perkins.

Has TR's bullpen plan really been effective? Or just not as bad as it could have been? Sounds like a familiar refrain -- last year it was Boyer, before that Duensing, Fien, and Burton. Another reminder to not count your trade returns from Abad and Kintzler before they hatch...

Mike Sixel · July 25, 2016

Well, they are 12th (in the AL) in bullpen WAR for the year so far.....hard to say it is a good bullpen.

If you prefer a leverage measure, like win probability.....they are 13th in the AL.....

if you like ERA (ignoring inherited runners, for example)....they are 13th in the AL....

So, ya, it's not like this is even close to a good bullpen for the year.

tobi0040 · July 25, 2016

Well, they are 12th (in the AL) in bullpen WAR for the year so far.....hard to say it is a good bullpen.

If you prefer a leverage measure, like win probability.....they are 13th in the AL.....

if you like ERA (ignoring inherited runners, for example)....they are 13th in the AL....

So, ya, it's not like this is even close to a good bullpen for the year.

An awful pen and we all knew it was going to be. And they took one of the best asetts from the starters to boot.

mlhouse · July 25, 2016

Terry Ryan had a very good talent of finding marginal talent in the scrap heap of the league.

Primetime82 · July 25, 2016

Terry was really bad but my god the Diamondbacks GM is a disaster. He traded Palka for Herrman and gave away Dansby Swanson and other prospects for Shelby Miller. That franchise just got set back another 10 years.

Edited July 25, 2016 by Primetime82

Nick Nelson · July 25, 2016

Palka is of actual value? He is an interesting corner power prospect. I am not sure we could turn around and trade him for anything more than Herrmann today. He might have more value in the future, IF he can make that big step to MLB and provide enough offense to offset his defensive/positional limitations.

A 24-year-old Palka is of more value to a team in MN's position than a 28-year-old (out of options) Herrmann. I don't think this is a particularly controversial statement.

Of course Palka carries uncertainty, as does any prospect, but it seems odd to completely downplay a guy who's on track to hit almost 40 home runs in his first taste of the high minors.

Nick Nelson · July 25, 2016

Look, I've been as skeptical of Ryan's conservative bullpen approach as anyone, but when his minor-league deal gambles are excelling while popular offseason targets like Bastardo/Sipp are mired in mediocrity and Storen is getting DFA'd in July, I think it's worth pointing out.

alarp33 · July 25, 2016

A 24-year-old Palka is of more value to a team in MN's position than a 28-year-old (out of options) Herrmann. I don't think this is a particularly controversial statement.

What do you consider MN's position... the pre-season "this team's goal is to win the division", when the trade was actually made by the GM who said this.... or the July 25th reality.

Mike Sixel · July 25, 2016

Look, I've been as skeptical of Ryan's conservative bullpen approach as anyone, but when his minor-league deal gambles are excelling while popular offseason targets like Bastardo/Sipp are mired in mediocrity and Storen is getting DFA'd in July, I think it's worth pointing out.

Fair. What's killing them, imo, is their complete inability to develop enough pitching.....

dxpavelka · July 25, 2016

And yet we hover on the brink of being only 19 games out of first place.

Thrylos · July 25, 2016

A 24-year-old Palka is of more value to a team in MN's position than a 28-year-old (out of options) Herrmann. I don't think this is a particularly controversial statement.

If Palka were a catcher, instead of a corner OF/1B, or the Twins had a couple MLB-ready options, I would totally agree with is; however he is not.

Edited July 25, 2016 by Thrylos

Thrylos · July 25, 2016

I also am glad people are starting to realize that building a bullpen via high priced options is never a good thing. Abad, aside from last year, was right in line with the likes of Sipp and to some degree Bastardo. Kintzler was solid before the knee injury. Unless you're talking about the likes of Chapman and MIller, they all need to be put in a similar bucket.

Sipp and Bastardo were in the level of Matt Capps when Ryan (over)paid to re-sign him, so it is not like it has not been done in the Twins' organization.

Two other things:

a. Not going after a closer-type player knowing that Perkins lost 5 mph on both his slider and fastball, is not quite what a decent general manager does.

b. Ryan got the following pitchers out of the garbage heap last off-season:

Buddy Boshers
Brandon Kintzler
Fernando Abad
David Martinez
Dan Runzler
Aaron Thompson

and then during the season

Sean Burnett
Neil Ramirez

Only the top 3 managed to make it to the majors, and they made it with a last place team. It would be "success", if there is demand for their services by a contending team and they will not go the way of Fien, Boyer, etc, which is usually the Twins' way in these matters...

Also, competitors who do not want to go after the Chapmans and the Millers of the world, develop from inside and give their young relievers a chance. The fact that Kintzler is the Twins closer now instead of Chargois and Abad the LH setup guy instead of Melotakis, in a last place team, is inane.

So the heap pile, even though it might once a while get them someone who may be serviceable, costs them much more in opportunity...

dbminn · July 25, 2016

Ryan left some other parting gifts that have to be intriguing (I liked the earlier use of this word) to any prospective GM:

A young, talented OF that's ready to stick in the majors
A bunch of power hitters
Some veteran pieces to trade, more than a few still under control
A budget that will have increased flexibility each year moving forward
Minor league talent and depth, both for trades and development

The problem is, the Pohlads have been left to deliver the parting gifts. Otherwise, I think anyone in the potential GM pool would be excited to take the job.

savvyspy · July 25, 2016

If these completely underwhelming moves are the highlights Terry Ryan leaves us with I think that speaks to confirm this was the correct decision to relieve him of his duties.

Kintzler, Abad, and Boshers are having decent recent stretches but are probably bit pieces on a playoff team.

Grossman is playing way over his head and will almost certainly regress to his historical norm.

The Palka deal is promising but the Twins haven't been good at developing guys like this so we'll see.

Trading Hicks for Murphy was a bigger miss than all of these "positive" deals combined. That's why Ryan was the worst GM in the majors.

Nick Nelson · July 25, 2016

If Palka were a catcher, instead of a corner OF/1B, or the Twins had a couple MLB-ready options, I would totally agree with is; however he is not.

I'm looking at the move independent of the Murphy and Hicks acquisitions, which clearly did not pan. On its own this was a good trade. If you were complaining about losing Herrmann last November coming off a season where he posted a .486 OPS, I'd love you to point me to it.

Taildragger8791 · July 25, 2016

Ryan left some other parting gifts that have to be intriguing (I liked the earlier use of this word) to any prospective GM:
A young, talented OF that's ready to stick in the majors
A bunch of power hitters
Some veteran pieces to trade, more than a few still under control
A budget that will have increased flexibility each year moving forward
Minor league talent and depth, both for trades and development
The problem is, the Pohlads have been left to deliver the parting gifts. Otherwise, I think anyone in the potential GM pool would be excited to take the job.

Most of your list has little to do with Terry Ryan specifically, unfortunately.

Kepler was signed when Bill Smith was GM.
Most of the power hitters you're hinting at were also acquired under Bill Smith.
Not sure what veterans you think have notable trade value. Most of them are unlikely to produce a significant return. The expectations are mostly longshot prospects.
Sports team budgets almost always have increased flexibility each year you look forward, because contracts expire. The exception being when you have young superstars that you expect to resign.

Darius · July 25, 2016

Those aren't bad moves, but they're certainly not going to help this team get back in contention anytime soon. It's still clearance shopping at Wal-Mart while others are are shopping the Galleria. Sure, every once in a while you'll find a decent pair of socks/underwear, that the public should never really see anyway, but your never going to find any Hammermade.

I don't know if the these moves are a reflection of TR's exceptional skills as much as an indication that he couldn't properly fill out the roster in the first place. Nobody should be pulling guys off the scrap heap to close games in the middle of the season.

The take-away for me: Sometimes, you can make terrible decisions, and cut corners, and you still may get really lucky and have it work out somewhat positively (even though I wouldn't consider a potential 100 loss club positive in any way).

jimmer · July 25, 2016

Most of your list has little to do with Terry Ryan specifically, unfortunately.

Kepler was signed when Bill Smith was GM.

And if Rosario was one of the OF he had in mind that are ready to stick, Smith signed him too.

Seth Stohs · July 25, 2016

Sipp and Bastardo were in the level of Matt Capps when Ryan (over)paid to re-sign him, so it is not like it has not been done in the Twins' organization.

Two other things:

a. Not going after a closer-type player knowing that Perkins lost 5 mph on both his slider and fastball, is not quite what a decent general manager does.
b. Ryan got the following pitchers out of the garbage heap last off-season:

Buddy Boshers
Brandon Kintzler
Fernando Abad
David Martinez
Dan Runzler
Aaron Thompson

and then during the season

Sean Burnett
Neil Ramirez

Only the top 3 managed to make it to the majors, and they made it with a last place team. It would be "success", if there is demand for their services by a contending team and they will not go the way of Fien, Boyer, etc, which is usually the Twins' way in these matters...

Also, competitors who do not want to go after the Chapmans and the Millers of the world, develop from inside and give their young relievers a chance. The fact that Kintzler is the Twins closer now instead of Chargois and Abad the LH setup guy instead of Melotakis, in a last place team, is inane.

So the heap pile, even though it might once a while get them someone who may be serviceable, costs them much more in opportunity...

I would argue that if you hit on 3 out of 8 minor league free agent signings in a season, that's pretty good.

TheLeviathan · July 25, 2016

These were all good supplementary moves. The kind that put a good plan over the top to a great plan, but when the core plan sucks they do little more than put lipstick on a pig.

I hope we can spin some of this found value into future value, that would be nice.

jorgenswest · July 25, 2016

Seth stated at the time of the trade that Chris Herrmann could be an average hitter for a catcher. If you followed his minor league career, you might make the same assessment. I keep reading posters quote slash stats, but they really don't have any meaning in his major league sample or as a career starter. If the Twins had anyone recommend this deal based on Herrmann's major league slash stats, they need to be cleared out by the new GM.

His upside might have been an average bat, average arm and poor other catcher skills. That has value to the Twins and other teams. The Twins really needed to assess whether they could improve the catcher position to the point where he was an obvious DFA. Adding Murphy, who had options, should not have been that clear. Why not go to spring with both? A DFA of Herrmann at the end March when every team is making similar moves probably would have passed him through.

Where is the greater need? Catcher or corner/DH?

HitInAPinch · July 25, 2016

It's pretty amusing to watch some of the hindsight judgments playing out here, though. I had completely forgotten what big Herrmann supporters you all were!

I always thought Herrmann was too skinny to play catcher. And too damn weird:

http://www.liketotally80s.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/pee-wee-herman-1.jpg

Linus · July 25, 2016

TR greatest parting gift is a well stocked farm system which is the most important factor of any.

They have some potential high end players and enough depth that if some bust we will still be ok.

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