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  • Parting Gifts: Ryan's 5 Best Final Moves


    Nick Nelson

    In the wake of his dismissal as general manager, there has been much discussion of Terry Ryan's missteps. Rightfully so.

    But despite the poor results this year, Ryan did make a few notably good moves, and many were the apparent result of savvy scouting. Amidst the focus on his shortcomings, we'll take a look at a few instances where Ryan's instincts paid off (and may continue to pay off long after he's gone).

    Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, USA Today

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    These five low-key decisions, dating back to the end of last season, all worked out better than anyone would have suspected. Three of them involve bullpen pickups, which is somewhat ironic considering that Ryan's lack of action on that front was a primary source of offseason criticism.

    Let's give the man his due:

    Believing in Fernando Abad

    Most fans, including myself, rolled their eyes when Abad became the highest-profile addition to the Twins bullpen during the offseason. For a team badly needing impact left-handed relievers, bypassing the big names on the market and settling for a guy who couldn't get a major-league deal left something to be desired.

    As it turns out, the Twins were astute in preferring Abad over the high-priced free agent alternatives. His numbers have been vastly superior to Antonio Bastardo or Tony Sipp, and he came with only a fraction of the contractual commitment. Now, Rob Antony may be able to flip Abad ahead of the deadline for a decent prospect.

    Signing Robbie Grossman

    Following a 2015 campaign that was poor across the board, the Astros released Grossman in November. He went on to sign a minor-league deal with the Indians. After six weeks with Cleveland's Triple-A affiliate, seeing no path to the majors, Grossman opted out and became a free agent. Ryan liked what he saw and snagged him, and now the outfielder is looking like a potential piece for the future.

    He certainly can't be counted on to maintain an .850 OPS long-term, but Grossman brings a skill set that offers good value off the bench. He's a switch-hitter. He's a solid fielder and runner. He has a keen eye at the plate, and walks enough to keep his OBP afloat through hitting slumps. And finally, he's only 26 with plenty of team control left.

    Uncovering Buddy Boshers

    Last year, Boshers was pitching in an independent league. He performed very well for the Somerset Patriots, and after the season he drew interest from a few different MLB clubs. No one pushed harder than the Twins, who landed him on a minor-league deal in December. What a find he is turning out to be.

    The 28-year-old southpaw has excelled consistently this year, whether in Rochester or Minnesota. In 20 appearances with the Red Wings, he has a 1.16 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 26-to-8 K/BB ratio. In 17 appearances with the Twins, he has a 2.81 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 18-to-3 K/BB. He misses bats, stays in the zone and devastates left-handed hitters. What's not to like?

    Boshers and Abad have become legitimate lefty bullpen options for the Twins going forward, along with Taylor Rogers who was drafted in TR's first year back at the helm. Give the exiled GM this much: he addressed this particular area effectively, albeit in characteristically subtle fashion.

    Trading Chris Herrmann for Daniel Palka

    It's safe to say that Chris Herrmann was not in Minnesota's plans this year, right? He was out of options, with a .530 career OPS, and his fringy receiving skills weren't exactly appealing to a team in need of help behind the plate. Somehow, Ryan managed to flip Herrmann for Palka, whose power-hitting skills have only grown more prolific in a new system.

    Palka's homer last Wednesday in Rochester was his 25th of the year in the minors. No Twin has more than 17. The 24-year-old put on a show in spring training with his long-ball theatrics and is reinforcing his power-hitting prowess with dominant numbers in Double-A and Triple-A. Acquiring Palka for a player who was on his way out will go down as a big win for Ryan.

    Betting on Brandon Kintzler

    Kintzler was once a very effective setup man for the Brewers, but had fallen off in recent years. Ryan believed that there was still something left, and it looks like he was right.

    With Glen Perkins out for the year, and Kevin Jepsen released, Kintzler has taken over the closer role. He has done a damn good job, converting all eight of his save chances despite lacking dominant stuff. Clearly he isn't a long-term ninth-inning solution but he does have the makings of a quality bullpen arm. The Jared Burton parallels are obvious.

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    Discussing (championing?) the acquisition of a few, successful, bit players only serves to amplify the failure.  Ryan's assignment was to right the ship, turn things around and build a consistent winner. It was clear when he was named "interim GM" that the minor league cupboard was bare and that there was much work to be done. The big decision he missed was "keeping the gang" (management) intact. The Rule 4 draft hadn't provided much for many years (including during his first tenure as GM). This was the perfect time to "shake the tree" and inject new people (and thinking) into an organization that had failed. These aren't multi-million dollar players--no, they are eminently affordable staffers, scouts, and instructor/coaches. There was plenty of money available for that change. The performance of the "first wave" (or is it two waves?) of talent hasn't come close to what was promised.

     

    Sure, there were some decent, bit players acquired--BIT PLAYERS. These aren't the guys that turn things around--nor should anyone stand on a pedestal and shout about some minor good decisions. It's the big decisions that make the real impact--and the jury has rendered its verdict of "Guilty". Now we wait to see if the ownership committee makes the right decision for the next GM.

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    Terry was really bad but my god the Diamondbacks GM is a disaster. He traded Palka for Herrman and gave away Dansby Swanson and other prospects for Shelby Miller. That franchise just got set back another 10 years.

     

    I believe their GM is Dave Stewart and the Director of Baseball Operations is Tony Larussa... 

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    A 24-year-old Palka is of more value to a team in MN's position than a 28-year-old (out of options) Herrmann. I don't think this is a particularly controversial statement.

     

    Of course Palka carries uncertainty, as does any prospect, but it seems odd to completely downplay a guy who's on track to hit almost 40 home runs in his first taste of the high minors.

    Completely downplay? I said he's a decent prospect. "Completely downplay" would be to call the trade a "big win" for the Twins, while completely ignoring the post-trade performance of the player the Twins gave up...

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    Wait, so Herrmann was expendable because we had John Hicks (although I seem to recall he was claimed after Herrmann was traded)... and in the very next point, John Hicks was expendable for David Murphy too. Got it.

    What great catching depth we must have! Why are people worried about the position at all going forward? Seems crazy, the way you portray it.

     

    Mediocre catchers are a dime a dozen. The difference between John Hicks, Juan Centeno and Chris Hermann is negligible. Endlessly complaining about minute decisions that make no real difference is actually crazy. John Hicks going was not a big deal. Chris Hermann being traded was not a big deal (except that the Twins actually got something interesting back). The Twins have had multiple catchers with the same set of skills and if the guys they currently have were hit by a bus, they could go find similar replacements relatively easily.

     

    This topic continues to be beaten to death. It's the weirdest thing in a super weird year on TD.

    Edited by ThejacKmp
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    Well, they only won 3 of the 1st 18 games he appeared in... so probably not much worse

     

    Ha. I was more saying from the point of view of a fan making it through those games. There was at least a month this year where every single reliever coming in made me cringe with the exception of Abad. For that month alone, he has been a great pickup.

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    Completely downplay? I said he's a decent prospect. "Completely downplay" would be to call the trade a "big win" for the Twins, while completely ignoring the post-trade performance of the player the Twins gave up...

     

    As Nick said, the Twins were out of options on Hermann. He would've had to be on the roster all year (or be lost for nothing) which means dumping Suzuki or not getting JRM. Though we may not love Suzuki or JRM, I think we can comfortably say we're happy the Twins took a shot on JRM (who still has multiple options left and is a much better prospect than Hermann) and are glad Suzuki is starting everyday instead of Hermann. The Twins got something for nothing and that something has turned out to be more exciting than we thought at the time.

     

    And no one has ignored Hermann's "revival". We've just correctly pointed out Small Sample Size and Past Performance and dismissed that a hot 145 at bats is relevant to deciding who wins a trade. The Twins had a below-replacement level catcher who they likely couldn't keep in the minors and who didn't warrant a guaranteed spot in the bigs and swapped him for an interesting outfield power bat prospect currently tearing it up in AAA. That's a pretty big win no matter how you look at it.

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    Mediocre catchers are a dime a dozen. The difference between John Hicks, Juan Centeno and Chris Hermann is negligible. Endlessly complaining about minute decisions that make no real difference is actually crazy.

    I thought you just said that Herrmann lacking options was a big negative?  That's certainly a difference that he and Centeno don't share with Hicks, who is not only optionable this year, but again in 2017.  Being able to more freely audition catchers, in an org with a catching deficiency, seems like it would be more than a negligible or minute difference.

    Edited by spycake
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    As Nick said, the Twins were out of options on Hermann. He would've had to be on the roster all year (or be lost for nothing) which means dumping Suzuki or not getting JRM.

    Those weren't the only options.  They could have tried to pass Herrmann through waivers and outright him to AAA, and if he was really as interchangeable with Juan Centeno as you claim, it shouldn't have been too much of a problem to time such a transaction -- an out of options Centeno cleared waivers himself in November.

     

     

    And no one has ignored Hermann's "revival".

     

    Read the article again.  Nick, to whom I was responding, most definitely completely ignores Herrmann's 2016 performance.  There is no mention of it at all in the article, even just to dismiss it as a small sample size, outlier, etc.  Which sort of matters when he wants to conclude the trade is a "big win" based on the 2016 minor league performance of Palka.

     

    I'd even be willing to consider the trade as win for Minnesota right now, but I think such a conclusion needs a more honest accounting of all of the facts, and the fact is that Herrmann has looked like a useful MLB player in 2016 at a position of need for the Twins, and it isn't all that clear that Palka will ever exceed that threshold.  (The "X" factor is, of course, if the Twins have coaching/development problems that were stifling Herrmann here.)

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    So the heap pile, even though it might once a while get them someone who may be serviceable, costs them much more in opportunity...

     

    Opportunity cost, bingo. 

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    So.... has anybody figured out how Palka is going to find playing time in the majors? He's not going to supplant Kepler. Rosario will likely be given quite a bit of leash in LF. And Grossman has been pretty good. At DH/1B we have Sano (long term), Mauer, Park, and Vargas. Palka is already 25. An astute GM would recognize this back-log and try to flip Palka in the offseason. 

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    So.... has anybody figured out how Palka is going to find playing time in the majors? He's not going to supplant Kepler. Rosario will likely be given quite a bit of leash in LF. And Grossman has been pretty good. At DH/1B we have Sano (long term), Mauer, Park, and Vargas. Palka is already 25. An astute GM would recognize this back-log and try to flip Palka in the offseason. 

    I'd trade Rosario or Grossman before I traded Palka.  Rosario is best served as a 4th OF, not a starter. Been saying for a long time,

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    So.... has anybody figured out how Palka is going to find playing time in the majors? He's not going to supplant Kepler. Rosario will likely be given quite a bit of leash in LF. And Grossman has been pretty good. At DH/1B we have Sano (long term), Mauer, Park, and Vargas. Palka is already 25. An astute GM would recognize this back-log and try to flip Palka in the offseason. 

     

    Out of all those names you listed, I would put 2 of them in the category of "locks to be long term MLB Starters (btoh good ones)".  Sano and Kepler.  

     

     

    Edit:  Not to say I disagree with flipping Palka.. just pointing out that logjam is no sure thing

     

    Edited by alarp33
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    So.... has anybody figured out how Palka is going to find playing time in the majors? He's not going to supplant Kepler. Rosario will likely be given quite a bit of leash in LF. And Grossman has been pretty good. At DH/1B we have Sano (long term), Mauer, Park, and Vargas. Palka is already 25. An astute GM would recognize this back-log and try to flip Palka in the offseason. 

    Hey, Palka still has a couple months of being 24 years old. Let's not age him prematurely. :)

     

    So you're saying, an astute GM might flip Palka for catching depth this winter? :)

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    Out of all those names you listed, I would put 2 of them in the category of "locks to be long term MLB Starters (btoh good ones)".  Sano and Kepler.  

     

     

    Edit:  Not to say I disagree with flipping Palka.. just pointing out that logjam is no sure thing

     

    Agreed, but they will all get their looks before Palka. And time is not on Palka's side. 

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    Hey, Palka still has a couple months of being 24 years old. Let's not age him prematurely. :)

     

    So you're saying, an astute GM might flip Palka for catching depth this winter? :)

     

    My bad, I thought Palka was a year older. He is 24 though, 10/28/91. Turns 25 in october. 

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