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  • Oswaldo Arcia And The Limits Of Patience


    Nick Nelson

    Patience is a commodity in baseball. Each team can only have so much. More patience is warranted in certain circumstances, particularly for rebuilding teams, but it is never infinite.

    With Oswaldo Arcia, patience was a luxury the Minnesota Twins could no longer afford.

    Image courtesy of Jerome Miron, USA Today

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    There was much frustration amongst fans over the decision to designate Arcia for assignment last week in order to make room for Danny Santana. Plenty of commenters voiced their displeasure in a 13-page thread here on Twins Daily.

    It's understandable. These are the same fans that have watched so many players leave Minnesota and excel elsewhere. The "David Ortiz Complex" is very real as the legendary DH wraps up a Hall of Fame career that took off as soon as the Twins unwisely gave up on him. There are too many more recent examples currently on other rosters in the league.

    Seeing the youth, the raw power, and the seemingly untapped potential, it's tempting to lump Arcia with some of the organization's most painful past mistakes. Don't do it.

    Let's lay out a few of the facts with regard to Arcia.

    He has been utterly terrible this year. In 114 plate appearances, he has batted .214/.289/.369 with 46 strikeouts. That's a 40 percent K-rate. Guys who are above 40 percent do not belong in the majors.

    The only MLB player with a higher strikeout rate this year (min. 100 PAs) is Byron Buxton. It's debatable whether Buxton belongs in the bigs right now but he gains leeway because he's so young and brings so much to the table defensively.

    Arcia, conversely, is approaching 1,000 plate appearances in the majors, and offers almost no defensive value. If he isn't mashing he isn't really an asset, and it's been quite a while since he has mashed.

    Last year, as we all recall, the outfielder turned a short rehab assignment into a permanent banishment at Triple-A because he never got going there. Save for a brief power splurge in July, Arcia basically slumped for three months straight, finishing with a .199 average in 79 games at Rochester. For someone who had hit 20 homers with a 752 OPS in the majors a year before, it was embarrassing.

    The Twins gave him a chance to make it right. Despite being tempted by Carlos Quentin's veteran bat in spring training, they stuck with Arcia, who was out of options. And while I've seen some people complaining about the team not putting Arcia in a position to succeed, that just isn't true.

    Actually, Paul Molitor has been quite good about using the righty-mashing slugger in the most advantageous spots. Eighty-two percent of Arcia's plate appearances have come against right-handed pitchers, and in those appearances he has batted .202 with a 42 percent K-rate. Yuck.

    Arcia is still young, but he continues to head in the wrong direction and the Twins have too many other players ahead of him that they are rightfully prioritizing. Miguel Sano, as things stand, remains an outfielder and has nowhere else to play. Max Kepler himself will be out of options next year and needs to get comfortable in the majors. Eddie Rosario has been absolutely tearing up Triple-A since his demotion – not struggling and sulking, mind you – and should be back up soon. Even Robbie Grossman is making a case as a long-term piece in some capacity.

    There's no argument to be made for Arcia starting ahead of any of these guys that doesn't fall back on his production from two years ago. Keeping him on the bench was doing neither him nor the Twins any good. He played himself out of the team's plans and it isn't anyone's fault but his own.

    This is not an indictment of the 25-year-old's long-term outlook; it wouldn't surprise me if he falls into the right situation and hits 30 homers in a couple of years. It's not unusual for players to reach their late 20s before they really figure things out in the majors. This game is tough.

    Yet, to argue that the Twins should have perpetually kept Arcia planted on their 25-man roster until that day arrived is silly. You can quibble with the timing and specifics of the DFA move, since Danny Santana isn't necessarily a player worth giving up anything to make room for and it's only June. But there were no signs of positive change, and keeping Arcia around was only going to get tougher with more deserving players like Sano and Rosario returning to the fold.

    All of the hand-wringing over the decision to designate Arcia overlooks the basic realities of the situation. You need to earn things on merit in Major League Baseball and he wasn't doing it. There is certainly a discussion to be had about how the organization may be culpable in his failure to adjust and grow as a player, especially given how many different times we've seen it happen, but that is a separate discussion.

    As of this post going live on Sunday night, there is still no word that Arcia has been claimed off waivers by another club. Maybe this will all be moot. But even if he does land elsewhere, and even if he does finally turn a corner eventually, it won't be because the Twins screwed up and gave up too early.

    It will be because he exhausted every last bit of patience they could show him.

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    The Players Project

    Brooks Lee

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      On 6/20/2016 at 11:07 PM, howieramone2 said:

    Sano, Buxton, and Kepler. Keep watching!

    Buxton was an elite defender before he was drafted. Sano feels like he is an elite hitter despite the twins and Kepler does feel like a successfully trained and molded player.... I'm so conflicted!!! Lol

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    Btw, I'd also like to note that on May 6, after the first game of a series in Chicago, Arcia was hitting .281/.359/.491.

     

    He played the next two against the Sox, going 1-6 with 2 walks.

     

    He then played just one game against the Orioles (0-4), two games in Cleveland (0-8), then for some reason appeared only once--a pinch-hitting spot--in Detroit.

     

    Coming home, he played twice in four games against the Jays (1-7), then just once against the Royals (2-3), then played twice in Oakland (0-6 with a walk).

     

    That brought him to the end of May, where after a 3-week slump in spotty playing time (8 starts and one PH app after Chicago), his line had fallen to .217/.301/.370. And that's where the Twins apparently gave up on him.

     

    After not playing at all in the first week of June, he had two starts in the Marlins series (2-6), made a pinch-hit app in the Red Sox series, and finally had a start in Anaheim on June 14 (0-4).

     

    Really, they gave up on him because of a 3-week slump covering 8-10 starts in May. One of their better prospects of recent years, and WHY? To make room for Danny Santana. Because Terry Ryan said, "We need him. It's as simple as that."

     

    FFS.

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      On 6/20/2016 at 11:36 PM, SwainZag said:

    There's been a lot of comparing of Santana to Arcia, but no one has pointed out that DanSan has played 32 of his 35 starts this season in CF.  Santana is not taking AB away from Arcia, at least not this season.  

    maybe some of these people want Arcia in CF

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    Honestly, it's a lost season, I'd have played him in CF just to keep his bat in the lineup and see if he can adjust to major league pitching.  Would one or two more losses b/c of it really make things worse than what they are now?

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      On 6/20/2016 at 11:36 PM, SwainZag said:

    There's been a lot of comparing of Santana to Arcia, but no one has pointed out that DanSan has played 32 of his 35 starts this season in CF.  Santana is not taking AB away from Arcia, at least not this season.  

    Ok, so, Santana doesn't just play CF.  He's plays corners too.  If Santana was gone instead of Arcia, all that would mean is that Buxton and Kepler would be 1-2 for CF with Arcia taking a corner spot when he played (or LH DH). 

     

    So, instead of Buxton, Santana, Kepler and Grossman, it'd be Buxton, Arcia, Kepler and Grossman.  Leaves two people who can play CF and 4 OF who can play corner (with Rosario eventually, who can also play all 3 spots)

     

    It's not that hard to figure out why people are asking why are we keeping Santana over Arcia.

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      On 6/21/2016 at 11:50 AM, diehardtwinsfan said:

    Honestly, it's a lost season, I'd have played him in CF just to keep his bat in the lineup and see if he can adjust to major league pitching.  Would one or two more losses b/c of it really make things worse than what they are now?

    Especially if you're not using any young promising SP right now, who might get discouraged by bad defense.  (Although even then, you're unlikely to need Arcia in CF -- most folks advocating more playing time for Arcia are also advocating a starting job for one of Buxton or Kepler, or perhaps Grossman or even Nunez or Escobar if their bats remain hot and they get forced out of the infield by Polanco.)

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    Santana is Plan B in center field. Kepler would play center if both Buxton and Santana are out of a game. DanSan has started one game each in right and left IIRC. I would anticipate he will get a few more infrequent starts on the corners and subs more regularly for Buxton.

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      On 6/21/2016 at 3:11 PM, stringer bell said:

    Santana is Plan B in center field. Kepler would play center if both Buxton and Santana are out of a game. DanSan has started one game each in right and left IIRC. I would anticipate he will get a few more infrequent starts on the corners and subs more regularly for Buxton.

     

    Right. He is plan B in Center. He shouldn't be is the argument

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      On 6/21/2016 at 2:23 PM, spycake said:

    Especially if you're not using any young promising SP right now, who might get discouraged by bad defense.  (Although even then, you're unlikely to need Arcia in CF -- most folks advocating more playing time for Arcia are also advocating a starting job for one of Buxton or Kepler, or perhaps Grossman or even Nunez or Escobar if their bats remain hot and they get forced out of the infield by Polanco.)

     

    yes... then again, it might encourage those young guys to focus more on getting ahead in the count and striking out the batter :)

     

    I'm just saying at one point, given that we won't be doing anything this year, we may as well focus on figuring out what works. In Arcia's case, getting him in the lineup every day should have been a requirement. 

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      On 6/21/2016 at 1:53 PM, jimmer said:

    Ok, so, Santana doesn't just play CF.  He's plays corners too.  If Santana was gone instead of Arcia, all that would mean is that Buxton and Kepler would be 1-2 for CF with Arcia taking a corner spot when he played (or LH DH). 

     

    So, instead of Buxton, Santana, Kepler and Grossman, it'd be Buxton, Arcia, Kepler and Grossman.  Leaves two people who can play CF and 4 OF who can play corner (with Rosario eventually, who can also play all 3 spots)

     

    It's not that hard to figure out why people are asking why are we keeping Santana over Arcia.

     

     

    Perhaps the Twins have plans for him to play some shortstop in the near future.  

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      On 6/21/2016 at 4:23 PM, laloesch said:

    Perhaps the Twins have plans for him to play some shortstop in the near future.  

    Boy I hope not. I saw enough of the failed experiment at SS last season to never want to see that happen again. 

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      On 6/21/2016 at 11:50 AM, diehardtwinsfan said:

    Honestly, it's a lost season, I'd have played him in CF just to keep his bat in the lineup and see if he can adjust to major league pitching.  Would one or two more losses b/c of it really make things worse than what they are now?

     

    This is sarcasm, right?

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      On 6/21/2016 at 5:14 PM, SwainZag said:

    This is sarcasm, right?

    Mostly. Obviously no one would make Arcia the everyday CF, and he would probably never need to play the spot if guys like Rosario, Kepler, or even Grossman were also on the roster -- but keeping Arcia's bat in the lineup should have been a greater priority than giving reps to the veteran backup CF or utility guy du jour (Thomas, Mastroianni, Schafer, Robinson).

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    This thread is pretty interesting to see the similar debates around the league as to the move without all the Danny Santana grandstanding clouding the decision.

     

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/06/twins-designate-oswaldo-arcia.html

    7 or 8 days into the DFA, and no claims or trades?  Could Arcia go unclaimed?  Would that be good or bad?  I sort of think Ryan was exposing Millone and now Arcia to waivers because he thought teams might try to move up the waiver order and trade for them.  If no one claims them, great, we hold on to Arcia with no 40 man issues...  of course that means that players who aren't even the worst players on our team aren't even worth rostering on any other team.  No wonder Grossman looks good in comparison...

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      On 6/21/2016 at 5:14 PM, SwainZag said:

    This is sarcasm, right?

     

    Yes and no.  It's contextual more than anything else.  You have a high ceiling young OFish guy who clearly isn't a CF but does have some real roster crunch issues making it harder for him to get PT.  An occasional game in CF (think Parmelee a few years ago) isn't going to hurt anymore than it already does.  Yeah, not good long term for pitchers, but then again, it's probably costing an out every game or two, which is while it sucks will give the team a chance to see if this kid could have been a cornerstone bat or the very least up his value so he could be flipped if the team is sold on Park (why he hasn't been optioned at this point is another issue).  

     

    Bottom line is that Arcia needed at bats, and he didn't get them consistently in what was a make or break season.  In a season where you're going to lose 100 games, this is (in my opinion at least) inexcusable.  It would be far more understandable if this team was in the middle of a race for a playoff spot, but they weren't.  Arcia's release comes down to a complete failure to recognize what was clearly obvious after week 2 and a failure to adjust to this reality in the name of the long term health of the organization. 

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