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  • Oswaldo Arcia And The Limits Of Patience


    Nick Nelson

    Patience is a commodity in baseball. Each team can only have so much. More patience is warranted in certain circumstances, particularly for rebuilding teams, but it is never infinite.

    With Oswaldo Arcia, patience was a luxury the Minnesota Twins could no longer afford.

    Image courtesy of Jerome Miron, USA Today

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    There was much frustration amongst fans over the decision to designate Arcia for assignment last week in order to make room for Danny Santana. Plenty of commenters voiced their displeasure in a 13-page thread here on Twins Daily.

    It's understandable. These are the same fans that have watched so many players leave Minnesota and excel elsewhere. The "David Ortiz Complex" is very real as the legendary DH wraps up a Hall of Fame career that took off as soon as the Twins unwisely gave up on him. There are too many more recent examples currently on other rosters in the league.

    Seeing the youth, the raw power, and the seemingly untapped potential, it's tempting to lump Arcia with some of the organization's most painful past mistakes. Don't do it.

    Let's lay out a few of the facts with regard to Arcia.

    He has been utterly terrible this year. In 114 plate appearances, he has batted .214/.289/.369 with 46 strikeouts. That's a 40 percent K-rate. Guys who are above 40 percent do not belong in the majors.

    The only MLB player with a higher strikeout rate this year (min. 100 PAs) is Byron Buxton. It's debatable whether Buxton belongs in the bigs right now but he gains leeway because he's so young and brings so much to the table defensively.

    Arcia, conversely, is approaching 1,000 plate appearances in the majors, and offers almost no defensive value. If he isn't mashing he isn't really an asset, and it's been quite a while since he has mashed.

    Last year, as we all recall, the outfielder turned a short rehab assignment into a permanent banishment at Triple-A because he never got going there. Save for a brief power splurge in July, Arcia basically slumped for three months straight, finishing with a .199 average in 79 games at Rochester. For someone who had hit 20 homers with a 752 OPS in the majors a year before, it was embarrassing.

    The Twins gave him a chance to make it right. Despite being tempted by Carlos Quentin's veteran bat in spring training, they stuck with Arcia, who was out of options. And while I've seen some people complaining about the team not putting Arcia in a position to succeed, that just isn't true.

    Actually, Paul Molitor has been quite good about using the righty-mashing slugger in the most advantageous spots. Eighty-two percent of Arcia's plate appearances have come against right-handed pitchers, and in those appearances he has batted .202 with a 42 percent K-rate. Yuck.

    Arcia is still young, but he continues to head in the wrong direction and the Twins have too many other players ahead of him that they are rightfully prioritizing. Miguel Sano, as things stand, remains an outfielder and has nowhere else to play. Max Kepler himself will be out of options next year and needs to get comfortable in the majors. Eddie Rosario has been absolutely tearing up Triple-A since his demotion – not struggling and sulking, mind you – and should be back up soon. Even Robbie Grossman is making a case as a long-term piece in some capacity.

    There's no argument to be made for Arcia starting ahead of any of these guys that doesn't fall back on his production from two years ago. Keeping him on the bench was doing neither him nor the Twins any good. He played himself out of the team's plans and it isn't anyone's fault but his own.

    This is not an indictment of the 25-year-old's long-term outlook; it wouldn't surprise me if he falls into the right situation and hits 30 homers in a couple of years. It's not unusual for players to reach their late 20s before they really figure things out in the majors. This game is tough.

    Yet, to argue that the Twins should have perpetually kept Arcia planted on their 25-man roster until that day arrived is silly. You can quibble with the timing and specifics of the DFA move, since Danny Santana isn't necessarily a player worth giving up anything to make room for and it's only June. But there were no signs of positive change, and keeping Arcia around was only going to get tougher with more deserving players like Sano and Rosario returning to the fold.

    All of the hand-wringing over the decision to designate Arcia overlooks the basic realities of the situation. You need to earn things on merit in Major League Baseball and he wasn't doing it. There is certainly a discussion to be had about how the organization may be culpable in his failure to adjust and grow as a player, especially given how many different times we've seen it happen, but that is a separate discussion.

    As of this post going live on Sunday night, there is still no word that Arcia has been claimed off waivers by another club. Maybe this will all be moot. But even if he does land elsewhere, and even if he does finally turn a corner eventually, it won't be because the Twins screwed up and gave up too early.

    It will be because he exhausted every last bit of patience they could show him.

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      On 6/20/2016 at 1:46 PM, wsnydes said:

    Agreed. The response there is that they have better all around options in the INF, but had none in the OF. Arcia can't even play a corner spot, let alone CF.

     

    Again, I'm simply stating what I believe to be the other side of this argument. It is very thin, I agree. But it's the only rational reason I can see as a benefit of this move.

    I get where you're coming from. It's a paper thin rationale, but that's probably what the Twins are thinking.

     

    We can chalk it up to having no backup plan in CF, and them being fascinated by a player who's been nothing but terrible offensively the last 2 years.

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    We burned Arcia's options and only once did the kid get 400 PAs and even then it was barely 400.

     

    I get really annoyed with the mentality that players have to "force" or "earn" their way.  You know how that has to happen?  With actual, consistent playing time.  That means through struggles as well, especially when you aren't competing.  

     

    In his first year up (2013) he was getting less PAs than Clete Thomas from June-August.  Clete Thomas.

     

    In 2014 guys like Kubel, Fuld, and Parmelee were stealing at-bats.

     

    In 2016 he's been relegated behind Danny Santana.

     

    If that's what the Twins or anyone else think is the right way to "give someone a chance" - I want those people nowhere near the decision making process.

    Edited by TheLeviathan
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      On 6/20/2016 at 1:52 PM, Vanimal46 said:

    I get where you're coming from. It's a paper thin rationale, but that's probably what the Twins are thinking.

    We can chalk it up to having no backup plan in CF, and them being fascinated by a player who's been nothing but terrible offensively the last 2 years.

    Agreed completely.  At this point, there is no reason to consider using a roster spot on a defensive specialist (using it sarcastically).  While I'm not nearly as bent out of shape about Arcia's DFA, I am miffed by the timing and how it went down.  

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      On 6/20/2016 at 1:54 PM, TheLeviathan said:

    We burned Arcia's options and only once did the kid get 400 PAs and even then it was barely 400.

     

    I get really annoyed with the mentality that players have to "force" or "earn" their way.  You know how that has to happen?  With actual, consistent playing time.  That means through struggles as well, especially when you aren't competing.  

     

    In his first year up (2013) he was getting less PAs than Clete Thomas from June-August.  Clete Thomas.

     

    In 2014 guys like Kubel, Fuld, and Parmelee were stealing at-bats.

     

    In 2016 he's been relegated behind Danny Santana.

     

    If that's what the Twins or anyone else think is the right way to "give someone a chance" - I want those people nowhere near the decision making process.

    And they're doing virtually the same thing with Polanco.  I'm not sure if adding him to the active roster to provide depth and not playing him is better or worse than sitting behind that list of crap veterans.  It's not good or smart, that is for sure.

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    My favorite part is when it's pointed out that even if Arcia goes somewhere, figures it out, and does well, it still won't make the decision the wrong one.  Like the Hughes and Suzuki extensions were the right moves at the time, and even though they didn't work out (predictable as could be), neither of those moves showed the FO to be wrong either.  This team has been very bad for a long time, both in performance and construction, yet it always amazes me how so many of their moves are the right ones.  How can a team that makes so many correct moves be bad for so long?  Worst team in baseball right now, in case anyone forgot.

    Edited by jimmer
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    The reality is we could make individual cases to cut about half of our players. In a silo, you can make a case to cut Arcia. Limited defensively, high k rate, etc.. However, comparing players with gigantic warts against one another is the more appropriate analysis.

     

    Across the last two seasons, Danny Santana has a wRc of 48. Among players with 400 AB he is second worst in the major leagues. His OPS is .559. Arcia’s wRc is 83 and 78, and his OPS is .717 and .658.

     

    And look at our roster and the win column. We basically have two CF’s in Buxton and Kepler and at some point a third, Rosario will be back. And Escobar and Nunez can play SS and Beresford who is probably better than Santana anyway is a phone call away. Given all of the flexibility on our roster, the 4th OF role should have been a no brainer for a platoon bat and a guy who has a shot at hitting a HR in the bottom of the 9th. No player we have is better suited for that than Arcia.

     

    Defensive flexibility has always been over emphasized by this franchise. A team losing 70% of their players should not be overly worried about who their 3rd SS is on a daily basis.

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      On 6/20/2016 at 2:02 PM, Mike Sixel said:

    It's very important Danny Santana be up here and playing, and Polanco be in AAA during his last option year, on  a team that is neither young, nor good.....

    I don't care where Polanco is playing as long as he's playing every day.

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      On 6/20/2016 at 4:57 AM, Nick Nelson said:

    I'm no Santana fan, but he serves a function on the roster. Arcia really didn't anymore. As I said, you can quibble with the timing but this move was imminent one way or another, with Sano's return and Rosario's recall closing in.

    I'm actually a fan of Danny Santana.  I think the real problem with him is 2 fold:

    1. The Twins are playing him far too much and wearing him out
    2. He's being played too much because Buxton still hasn't shown himself to be a full-time player.  Not sure what the Twins have as an alternate CF.

     

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    I think the biggest problem with Santana is he can't field any position well, nor can he hit.  I have faith that Arcia, if given he chance somewhere, can at least DH against righties and be productive.

     

    A team's backup CF shouldn't be an IF who can't hold down an IF job.

    Edited by jimmer
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      On 6/20/2016 at 2:12 PM, HitInAPinch said:

     

    I'm actually a fan of Danny Santana.  I think the real problem with him is 2 fold:

    1. The Twins are playing him far too much and wearing him out
    2. He's being played too much because Buxton still hasn't shown himself to be a full-time player.  Not sure what the Twins have as an alternate CF.

     

    Kepler can play some CF.

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      On 6/20/2016 at 2:12 PM, HitInAPinch said:

    I'm actually a fan of Danny Santana.  I think the real problem with him is 2 fold:

    • The Twins are playing him far too much and wearing him out
    • He's being played too much because Buxton still hasn't shown himself to be a full-time player.  Not sure what the Twins have as an alternate CF.

    A professional athlete is getting worn out playing baseball about half the time over two years?

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      On 6/20/2016 at 6:34 AM, Dantes929 said:

    Poor comparison to Ortiz because Ortiz was a very good hitter with the Twins.     Injuries and a determination that they would rather have Dougie M's defense at 1st   than Ortiz and his bat was questionable at the time but it was mostly the injuries.    Ortiz had an .809 OPS with the Twins.    Arcia's best year two years ago was .752.  Big difference.

    Yeah, Ortiz was a good hitter with the Twins.  The argument against Ortiz seemed to come from Tom Kelly, who wanted Ortiz to hit " The Twins Way".  i.e. slap the ball to the opposite field, instead of swinging for the fences.  Win some, lose some...

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      On 6/20/2016 at 2:18 PM, tobi0040 said:

    A professional athlete is getting worn out playing baseball about half the time over two years?

    Quite a bit of difference training to be a SS as opposed to covering a wide range in CF.  

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      On 6/20/2016 at 2:12 PM, HitInAPinch said:

     

    I'm actually a fan of Danny Santana.  I think the real problem with him is 2 fold:

    1. The Twins are playing him far too much and wearing him out
    2. He's being played too much because Buxton still hasn't shown himself to be a full-time player.  Not sure what the Twins have as an alternate CF.

     

    I agree, he is playing far too much.  But it's not because he's wearing out. :)

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      On 6/20/2016 at 1:31 PM, jimmer said:

    I'd argue that the learning part should be in the minors, but yeah. In any event, the epitome of this is Rosario, who, somehow, is apparently is 'more deserving' than Arcia, even though he takes horrendous at bats, can't get on base, and makes bonehead decision after bonehead decision.. 

    All of those things are true of Arcia, as well. Rosario at least can run and play defense, and has hit at some point in the last 2 years. Yet this concept is inexplicable to you?

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      On 6/20/2016 at 2:22 PM, HitInAPinch said:

    Quite a bit of difference training to be a SS as opposed to covering a wide range in CF.  

     

    65 of his 68 starts in 2015 were at SS.  Was he worn out when he hit .215/.241/.291 last year?

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      On 6/20/2016 at 2:25 PM, Nick Nelson said:

    All of those things are true of Arcia, as well. Rosario at least can run and play defense, and has hit at some point in the last 2 years. Yet this concept is inexplicable to you?

     

    When did Rosario hit?  His .289 OBP in 2015 was him "hitting"?

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      On 6/20/2016 at 2:22 PM, HitInAPinch said:

    Quite a bit of difference training to be a SS as opposed to covering a wide range in CF.

    So a professional athlete who is about 135 pounds is wearing down because he has to sprint about 50 yards 3-5 times a game, because he trained for shorter runs?

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      On 6/20/2016 at 2:28 PM, alarp33 said:

    When did Rosario hit?  His .289 OBP in 2015 was him "hitting"?

    because of the unsustainable amount of triples making his OPS look decent.

    Edited by jimmer
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      On 6/20/2016 at 2:25 PM, alarp33 said:

    65 of his 68 starts in 2015 were at SS.  Was he worn out when he hit .215/.241/.291 last year?

    Santana was a terrible SS: great arm, terrible footwork.  One thing leads to another.   Pretty good reason why he's almost exclusively and OF now. 

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      On 6/20/2016 at 2:28 PM, tobi0040 said:

    So a professional athlete who is about 135 pounds is wearing down because he has to sprint about 50 yards 3-5 times a game, because he trained for shorter runs?

    Umm, Arcia in LF and Sano in RF?

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      On 6/20/2016 at 2:25 PM, Nick Nelson said:

    All of those things are true of Arcia, as well. Rosario at least can run and play defense, and has hit at some point in the last 2 years. Yet this concept is inexplicable to you?

    What level of offensive futility are we willing to accept for defensive flexibility and how does that compare to defensive futility?

     

    We are giving up 150 basis points in OPS between Arcia and Santana, about double the wRc. And obviously upside. Seems to me Santana is worse with the bat than Arcia is with the glove. And Santana is not a gold glover. In fact, Santana has negative defensive value if you look at WAR.

    Edited by tobi0040
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      On 6/20/2016 at 2:37 PM, HitInAPinch said:

    Santana was a terrible SS: great arm, terrible footwork.  One thing leads to another.   Pretty good reason why he's almost exclusively and OF now. 

     

    So he couldn't hit at SS, because he was terrible there.  He's equally terrible as a CFer, and equally cannot hit, but this time because he's too tired? Got it.  So why is he in the Major Leagues?

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      On 6/20/2016 at 2:20 PM, HitInAPinch said:

    Yeah, Ortiz was a good hitter with the Twins.  The argument against Ortiz seemed to come from Tom Kelly, who wanted Ortiz to hit " The Twins Way".  i.e. slap the ball to the opposite field, instead of swinging for the fences.  Win some, lose some...

    Through age 25, Ortiz and Arcia had very similar offense relative to the league with an OPS+ of 103 and 101 respectively. Through age 24, Arcia had the edge. A difference is the opportunity Ortiz was given in his age 25 season by Kelly.

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