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Not all fans approved of the Twins trading Luis Arraez for Pablo Lopez. Arraez was a fan favorite, and there are multiple reasons the club was willing to part with the reigning AL Batting Champion. He has yet to have a true defensive home and doesn't fit the profile of a slugging first baseman. Minnesota has other options at first base in 2023, which might be the most pivotal position on the roster.
Presumed Starter
Alex Kirilloff returns from a unique off-season surgery where doctors shortened his ulna bone. He has dealt with wrist issues over the last two seasons, and this surgery was the best way to solve these problems. This surgery has shown success with the general population, but there have been few professional athletes to undergo this procedure. There is no guarantee Kirilloff will return to his previous form, but all reports from the Twins have him on track to complete a regular spring training.
Projection systems defer in what to expect from Kirilloff in 2023. During his big-league career, Kirilloff hasn't been healthy, which impacts how projections view his potential contributions. ZiPS has Kirilloff hitting .250/.310/.401 (.711) while accumulating 0.9 WAR in 82 games (332 PA). Baseball-Reference projects him to post a .708 OPS in 301 PA. The Twins are hoping to get more than half a season from Kirilloff, so their internal projections are likely higher for his output during the upcoming season.
Other First Base Options
Minnesota can use Joey Gallo at first base, but he provides much of his value with Gold Glove-caliber outfield defense. He can likely be a strong defender at first, but the Twins' best defensive alignment has him in a corner outfield spot. Gallo has played over 745 innings at first base in his career, but most of those innings came in 2017 or earlier. His offensive profile fits at first base, so he is a fallback option if Kirilloff misses time in 2023.
Jose Miranda got time at first last season, but the Twins want him to be the club's everyday third baseman. He has never been considered a strong defender at third, so first base might be his eventual long-term position. Rocco Baldelli can undoubtedly use a line-up that includes Kyle Farmer at third base with Miranda sliding over to the other corner infield spot. Farmer and Christian Vazquez have played over 100 innings at first base so that they can be emergency options.
Offensive Potential
Fans may forget that Kirilloff was considered one of baseball's top prospects throughout his professional career. All three major national rankings had him among their top 100 prospects for three consecutive seasons (2019-21), with Baseball America and MLB.com ranking him in the top 15 entering the 2019 season. He was the 2018 TD Minor League Hitter of the Year after he hit .348/.392/.578 (.970) with 44 doubles, seven triples, and 20 home runs in 130 games. Kirilloff can still be that type of hitter if his latest wrist surgery proves successful.
Minnesota saw flashes of the offensive wunderkind when they sent Kirilloff to St. Paul during the 2022 season. He was struggling to fight through his wrist injury with the Twins, and the club wanted him to rediscover his swing in an environment more suitable for working on mechanical adjustments. He dominated in 35 games by hitting .359/.465/.641 (1.106) with seven doubles and ten home runs. His hot hitting didn't follow him back to the Twins, and he was eventually shut down because of his wrist.
The Twins' best line-up against a right-handed starter has Alex Kirilloff at first base with an outfield of Joey Gallo (LF), Byron Buxton (CF), and Max Kepler (RF). If Kirilloff isn't deemed ready, the Twins can move Gallo to first and have one of the other young outfielders (Trevor Larnach or Matt Wallner) take his place in a corner outfield spot. Minnesota focused on improving the club's outfield defense this winter, so they may avoid using players that struggle more on the defensive side.
If Kirilloff is healthy, Minnesota's line-up is strong at nearly every position, with depth waiting in the wings. The Twins will need to be ready to pivot to other first-base options like Gallo or Miranda if Kirilloff has any setbacks. How important is first base to the Twins line-up this season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
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