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  • One Position May Hold the Key to the Twins Offense


    Cody Christie

    The Twins have added depth at multiple positions on the roster, but trading Luis Arraez leaves a hole to fill. One position might be the key to the Twins' line-up firing on all cylinders during the 2023 campaign.

    Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn, USA Today Sports

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    Not all fans approved of the Twins trading Luis Arraez for Pablo Lopez. Arraez was a fan favorite, and there are multiple reasons the club was willing to part with the reigning AL Batting Champion. He has yet to have a true defensive home and doesn't fit the profile of a slugging first baseman. Minnesota has other options at first base in 2023, which might be the most pivotal position on the roster. 

    Presumed Starter
    Alex Kirilloff returns from a unique off-season surgery where doctors shortened his ulna bone. He has dealt with wrist issues over the last two seasons, and this surgery was the best way to solve these problems. This surgery has shown success with the general population, but there have been few professional athletes to undergo this procedure. There is no guarantee Kirilloff will return to his previous form, but all reports from the Twins have him on track to complete a regular spring training. 

    Projection systems defer in what to expect from Kirilloff in 2023. During his big-league career, Kirilloff hasn't been healthy, which impacts how projections view his potential contributions. ZiPS has Kirilloff hitting .250/.310/.401 (.711) while accumulating 0.9 WAR in 82 games (332 PA). Baseball-Reference projects him to post a .708 OPS in 301 PA. The Twins are hoping to get more than half a season from Kirilloff, so their internal projections are likely higher for his output during the upcoming season. 

    Other First Base Options
    Minnesota can use Joey Gallo at first base, but he provides much of his value with Gold Glove-caliber outfield defense. He can likely be a strong defender at first, but the Twins' best defensive alignment has him in a corner outfield spot. Gallo has played over 745 innings at first base in his career, but most of those innings came in 2017 or earlier. His offensive profile fits at first base, so he is a fallback option if Kirilloff misses time in 2023. 

    Jose Miranda got time at first last season, but the Twins want him to be the club's everyday third baseman. He has never been considered a strong defender at third, so first base might be his eventual long-term position. Rocco Baldelli can undoubtedly use a line-up that includes Kyle Farmer at third base with Miranda sliding over to the other corner infield spot. Farmer and Christian Vazquez have played over 100 innings at first base so that they can be emergency options.

    Offensive Potential
    Fans may forget that Kirilloff was considered one of baseball's top prospects throughout his professional career. All three major national rankings had him among their top 100 prospects for three consecutive seasons (2019-21), with Baseball America and MLB.com ranking him in the top 15 entering the 2019 season. He was the 2018 TD Minor League Hitter of the Year after he hit .348/.392/.578 (.970) with 44 doubles, seven triples, and 20 home runs in 130 games. Kirilloff can still be that type of hitter if his latest wrist surgery proves successful. 

    Minnesota saw flashes of the offensive wunderkind when they sent Kirilloff to St. Paul during the 2022 season. He was struggling to fight through his wrist injury with the Twins, and the club wanted him to rediscover his swing in an environment more suitable for working on mechanical adjustments. He dominated in 35 games by hitting .359/.465/.641 (1.106) with seven doubles and ten home runs. His hot hitting didn't follow him back to the Twins, and he was eventually shut down because of his wrist. 

    The Twins' best line-up against a right-handed starter has Alex Kirilloff at first base with an outfield of Joey Gallo (LF), Byron Buxton (CF), and Max Kepler (RF). If Kirilloff isn't deemed ready, the Twins can move Gallo to first and have one of the other young outfielders (Trevor Larnach or Matt Wallner) take his place in a corner outfield spot. Minnesota focused on improving the club's outfield defense this winter, so they may avoid using players that struggle more on the defensive side. 

    If Kirilloff is healthy, Minnesota's line-up is strong at nearly every position, with depth waiting in the wings. The Twins will need to be ready to pivot to other first-base options like Gallo or Miranda if Kirilloff has any setbacks. How important is first base to the Twins line-up this season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

     

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    9 hours ago, nokomismod said:

    I would love to see Kiriloff healthy and breakout but if he cannot why not Larnach? He played a great first base in college and will hopefully breakout this season.

    I agree Mr Mod! People seem to sleep on Larnach, but the guy has a nice bat. He's pretty good in the outfield too. Gallo however is top notch and keeping him there would be best. 

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    1st base is the easiest position to fill (other than DH.)   You can pick up a guy like CJ Cron and his defense would probably be better and his offense would be marginally less than Arraez.  If the Twins felt Arraez couldn't play 2nd or 3rd base, then his batting average was "wasted" at 1st base.  I like several of the options we have at first base and think Kirilloff will be JUST as productive as Arraez(in different ways of course.)

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    2 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

    100% agreed on the hitting value comp. On the fielding comp, Gallo is a much better fielder. While I hate the Gallo signing and feel he’s an overrated  fielder, at least he’s descent. Sano is a butcher, pretty much everywhere he’s fielded.

    At the end of the day you'd better either win the World Series or be entertaining.  29 teams are NOT gonna win the World Series.  Odds would indicate that the local nine is far more likely to be among the 29 that better be entertaining than be the one winning it.  For my money, Sano is the most entertaining Twin I've seen with a bat in his hand since Harmon Killebrew.  It ain't always going out, but when it does it might land in a different zip code.  And, sure, he might be a sub par fielder.  However, last I checked, MLB teams are allowed to put a player in the lineup who never has to even pick up a glove. 

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    1 minute ago, dxpavelka said:

    At the end of the day you'd better either win the World Series or be entertaining.  29 teams are NOT gonna win the World Series.  Odds would indicate that the local nine is far more likely to be among the 29 that better be entertaining than be the one winning it.  For my money, Sano is the most entertaining Twin I've seen with a bat in his hand since Harmon Killebrew.  It ain't always going out, but when it does it might land in a different zip code.  And, sure, he might be a sub par fielder.  However, last I checked, MLB teams are allowed to put a player in the lineup who never has to even pick up a glove. 

    Agreed on win or be entertaining, but I don’t like watching 3 true outcomes hitters. I’m not entertained by watching 3 whiffs and sitting down 80% of the time. Also, Gallo is basically Sano with a better mitt. You’ll like watching him strikeout, I promise

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    IF AK can't go full speed, full time at 1st - could one of the other left handed outfielders waiting in the wings play the 3 spot?  Larnach?  Walner?  Not saying its just a spot you can throw anybody into, but I might consider something like that if any experience there instead of blowing up the existing plan by putting Farmer at 3rd and Miranda at 1st.

    Just another option - or do we have any 1st at AAA ready to step in?

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    23 hours ago, DocBauer said:

    Don't sleep on Julien playing some 1B this year. 

    I would expect that he start at AAA as the starting 1B to get his reps in. If he can be decent and special K doesn't get it done.. we should see him there.. 

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    For the sake of argument, lets just say that AK is a complete bust and back on the DL within may or June. What are the chances that Lewis or Julien is playing 1st for the Saints after spring training and takes over for AK? That’s assuming alot but don’t the two of them need to find a position and why not have a permanent back up plan if AK is MIA. 

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    4 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

    Agreed on win or be entertaining, but I don’t like watching 3 true outcomes hitters. I’m not entertained by watching 3 whiffs and sitting down 80% of the time. Also, Gallo is basically Sano with a better mitt. You’ll like watching him strikeout, I promise

    He's Sano with a better glove and worse bat and I don't care about his glove.

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    16 hours ago, jimbo92107 said:

    We are all crossing our fingers (and, where possible, toes) that Alex Kirilloff finally gets a full season of health. Same for Byron Buxton. One year, o ye gods of baseball and pediatrics!

    Hell, how's about one year where the Twins don't have the most players on IL in the league? How about one year where the team doesn't need to use over 40 different pitchers to limp thru the season? We want all that...and a shrubbery. Nothing too expensive. 

    Was that actually a Monty Python reference in a TD post?

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    Miranda had a lot of growing pains last year at 1B. There is little system depth at1B. A healthy Kiriloff at 1B will be absolutely key to this offense. I still think a veteran backup would be useful. If this team has a complete turnaround in health, they have a chance to be very good.

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    3 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

    He's Sano with a better glove and worse bat and I don't care about his glove.

    How do you get at the worse bat?

    Sano career OPS .808 ISO .248 wRC+115.

    Gallo OPS .794, ISO .270 wRC+ 110.

    that is so similar, it is indistinguishable. Gallo Ks slightly more, BBs slightly more, and hits more homers. Isn’t the ISO the interesting part?

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    1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

    How do you get at the worse bat?

    Sano career OPS .808 ISO .248 wRC+115.

    Gallo OPS .794, ISO .270 wRC+ 110.

    that is so similar, it is indistinguishable. Gallo Ks slightly more, BBs slightly more, and hits more homers. Isn’t the ISO the interesting part?

    Ks slightly more is probably not a comp you want to make to the fanbase.

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    10 hours ago, farmerguychris said:

    IF AK can't go full speed, full time at 1st - could one of the other left handed outfielders waiting in the wings play the 3 spot?  Larnach?  Walner?  Not saying its just a spot you can throw anybody into, but I might consider something like that if any experience there instead of blowing up the existing plan by putting Farmer at 3rd and Miranda at 1st.

    Just another option - or do we have any 1st at AAA ready to step in?

    Gallo would be the first choice at 1B in ‘23 if Kirilof can’t play (v. RH pitching) ……..Larnach may get some reps through the year. We have plenty of OF depth to allow Gallo to man first base.

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    On 2/11/2023 at 10:53 AM, Nashvilletwin said:

    Really interesting take - Polanco at 1B if Kiriloff is a no go.

    At the moment, even if Kiriloff can make it back, Miranda should get lots of frames at 1B.  If Miranda ends up being a more dependable, higher producing player than Kiriloff this season, then next year when Lee, Lewis and Julien show up, Miranda would be the everyday 1B and Kiriloff (with Kepler and Gallo gone) would be a corner OF (with some combo of Larnach, Gordon, Wallner and Martin), backup 1B, and DH.

    I literally cannot believe we are going to be starting an OF of Gallo, Kepler and Taylor (when Buxton is inevitably out). Yes, the defense is there in spades, but what a snooze fest at the plate.  And all essentially one year rentals.

    Back to Polanco.  I actually think his year at the plate is going to be the key to the Twin’s offense this season. How Polanco goes is how this team will go..

    CANNOT start Taylor v. RH pitching………(not unless guys are hurt!) Against RH pitching - 80% of the games, order of depth:

    Gordon/Gallo/Larnach - Buxton/Gordon/Taylor - Kepler/Gallo/Taylor

    I see Buxton starting 80 games in CF if he can hold it together……..50 games at DH.

    When Buxton is resting or DH v. RH pitching, Gordon plays CF - 50 games………vs. LH pitching Taylor is in CF - 30 games.

    I look forward to Gallo - Gordon - Kepler in the OF & at the plate v. RH pitching.

    Larnach - Taylor - Kepler v. LH pitching with Buxton at DH.

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    22 hours ago, nokomismod said:

    I would love to see Kiriloff healthy and breakout but if he cannot why not Larnach? He played a great first base in college and will hopefully breakout this season.

    Cris E., above, says Larnach has played 1 game at first base in college and minor leagues combined………….. Not sure who is right?

    Does seem if he played “a great first base in college” he’d be getting some buzz and would be the obvious choice to replace Kirilof! 

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