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  • One Of These Things


    Seth Stohs

    One year ago, Kurt Suzuki found himself playing in his first All-Star Game at the age of 30. In fact, he was behind the plate, catching teammate Glen Perkins, as the American League won the game at Target Field. Soon after, the Twins had a huge decision to make on the veteran backstop.

    Image courtesy of Jerome Miron, USA Today

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    A year ago, the Twins signed catcher Kurt Suzuki to a one year, $2.75 million contract. The general thought from Twins fans at the time of the signing was that it an OK signing. He would be a veteran presence to help mold Josmil Pinto into a big league catcher. However, the Twins and Suzuki never said that was the reason for his signing. He was brought in to start. And he did.

    And he played really well. He made his first All-Star team and really earned it.

    On July 31 of 2014, the MLB trade deadline, the Twins were faced with three options regarding their All-Star catcher.

    First, they could just do nothing. They could stand pat, keep him the rest of the season and let him become a free agent at the end of the year. They could join the other teams in bidding for his services at the end of the season, or just let him go.

    Second, they could have sold high and traded him. On July 31, Suzuki was hitting.306/.369/.391 (.760). The team wasn’t in contention, and he could have fetched a solid prospect in return. Maybe that wasn’t really an option. Maybe they tried to trade him and found that they were not getting the kind of return they had hoped for a veteran catcher in an All-Star season.

    As the trade deadline passed that afternoon, news came out that the Twins went with Option #3. They signed him to a two-year extension. Suzuki was given a two year, $12 million contract with a vesting option for 2017 at $6 million based on plate appearances in 2016.

    The big question was Would Kurt Suzuki continue to play like he did in the first four months of the 2014? Had he made some sort of alteration in his game that would help him sustain that success? Or, would the pumpkin burst?

    Let’s take a quick look at the numbers:

    • 2012 (118 games) - .235/.276/.328 (.605)
    • 2013 (94 games) - .232/.290/.337 (.627)
    • Through July 31, 2014 (90 games) - .306/.369/.391 (.760)
    • After July 31, 2014 (41 games) - .248/.290/.366 (.656)
    • Through July 8, 2015 (68 games) - .227/.284/.309 (.593)

    Maybe I’m the only one, but all I can think of is the classic tune from Sesame Street, “One of these things is not like the other.”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ect-kgxBb4M

    Come on... it's always good to get a clip from Sesame Street into an article, right? Now good luck getting that tune out of your head today!

    Those are admittedly just the offensive numbers. Suzuki’s defensive metrics have never graded out well in terms of pitch framing. And in 2014, he threw out 25% of would-be base stealers and that number has dropped to 20% in 2015.

    To be fair, there are intangibles - especially important with catchers - in the game of baseball, and most of those things can’t be measured with statistics all the time. Just because they can’t be measured does not mean they are not valuable. It’s clear that Twins pitchers believe in Suzuki’s preparation, leadership and ability to work and call a good game. Those things do matter.

    On Monday night, the Twins sent Chris Herrmann down the Rochester and promoted Eric Fryer to the big league club. Herrmann was hitting just .156/.239/.281 (.521) in 25 games.

    Fryer had been working out with Team USA, preparing for the Pan Am Games when he learned that he’d been called to join the Twins. After going 0-3 in his first Red Wings game this season, he was on first his next seven games. He hit .625/.667/.750 (1.417) in those games. However, in 42 games since then, he hit .248/.344/.292 (.636), more in line with his career numbers. He had two hits in the Twins win on Wednesday afternoon. Fryer is touted as a strong defensive-minded catcher.

    Josmil Pinto hasn’t hit like himself most of the 2015 season. He suffered a concussion late in spring training that may have cost him a spot on the Twins Opening Day roster. He has again been on the DL with a concussion for the last month. His defensive skills have always been somewhat critically scrutinized by coaches and even teammates.

    Stuart Turner was pushed up to AA Chattanooga after a solid second half in Ft. Myers. He continues to be strong defensively and pitchers really enjoy throwing to him. However, his bat has not turned around this season. In 56 games with the Lookouts, he has hit just .183/.276/.267 with five doubles and three home runs. He will be a big league catcher, but he may need to repeat the level in 2016.

    Mitch Garver, our choice for Hitter of the Year in the Twins minor leagues in 2014, got a spring training invite, but he got off to a slow start with the bat in Ft. Myers this year. Through May 31, Garver was hitting just .185/.317/.215 with four doubles for the Miracle. Since June 1, he has been very good. In 32 games, he has hit .318/.429/.400 with nine doubles.

    There are some catchers in Cedar Rapids and lower that are certainly at least intriguing, but they have a long way to go.

    So, what are the Twins to do? With this year’s July 31 trade deadline approaching and the Twins actually being in contention, could they look for an upgrade at catcher?

    The other option at this point is to hope that Suzuki can have a strong final two months of the 2015 season while continuing to fulfill the importation leadership role that he does have on this year’s team.

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    Kurt is not a great catcher, but before the piling on begins, it is important to remember a couple of things:

     

    Catching in general is in very short supply.  There are a few great ones, some acceptable ones and then practically nothing. 

     

    The Twins signed him to a very reasonable contract that could easily be accepted in a back up role.  By signing him, they essentially protected themselves against the possibility that their prospects might not develop or that they could end up with something worse in free agency.

     

    Do I think Kurt is a "good" catcher - no.  Do I want a better catcher - yes; I believe its their greatest area of need.  Do I believe the Twins made a mistake when they signed him - nope.  Let's trade for somebody to make him a backup or split the starts.

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    I doubt a majority of fan bases are all that happy with their catching situation. Probably feels even worse for Twins fans--a decade of Mauer excellence plus Ramos being frittered away.

     

    Butera was routinely vilified and yet still is a wanted commodity. True all around excellence at catcher might be one of the rarest commodities in sports.

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    Kurt is not a great catcher, but before the piling on begins, it is important to remember a couple of things:

     

    Catching in general is in very short supply.  There are a few great ones, some acceptable ones and then practically nothing. 

     

    The Twins signed him to a very reasonable contract that could easily be accepted in a back up role.  By signing him, they essentially protected themselves against the possibility that their prospects might not develop or that they could end up with something worse in free agency.

     

    Do I think Kurt is a "good" catcher - no.  Do I want a better catcher - yes; I believe its their greatest area of need.  Do I believe the Twins made a mistake when they signed him - nope.  Let's trade for somebody to make him a backup or split the starts.

    If the Twins had used Suzuki to try and evaluate Pinto as a starter last year, most of what they did would have made sense. But they didn't. They signed a guy with a long history of mediocrity, who went BS crazy for three months, and then paid him based on that small sample size. And they got exactly what they deserved. Massive regression to the norm. I never saw the rationale to this. If you are going to play a catcher who can't hit, at least play one who is a very good defensive catcher.
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    I was thinking going the free agent route for a catcher.  Then I looked at the ages of the 2016 free agent catchers.  Almost all above 30, about the time you start worrying about wear and tear.  Of the bunch, it looks like A.J. Pierzynski is the best hitter.

     

    Only option:  PRAYER.

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    I was thinking going the free agent route for a catcher.  Then I looked at the ages of the 2016 free agent catchers.  Almost all above 30, about the time you start worrying about wear and tear.  Of the bunch, it looks like A.J. Pierzynski is the best hitter.

     

    Only option:  PRAYER.

     

    Most free agents are over 30, usually 31. And that's especially true of catchers because they take longer to develop. Most players debut at 24-25, and if they stay up, they pass 6 years service time when they're 31-32. Catchers develop slower, so it becomes even later. Obviously there are exceptions, like Mauer, but then again those guys typically don't become free agents either. 

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    There was no reason to buy high on Suzuki. You can find a mediocre veteran C pretty much any off-season. I do like his toughness though and am generally happy that he's a Twin but they need to upgrade behind the dish somehow.  

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    It appears we are still a few years away from any internal candidate making an impact on the MLB roster, unless we're seeking Drew Butera like stats at the plate.

     

    I would call the Dodgers to find out their asking price for either Barnes or Farmer in their farm.

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    I'll bet you dollars to donuts that the Twins won't make any move at catcher at the trade deadline.  It would cost too much in prospects to get any type of substantial upgrade.  I wouldn't even bet on them doing anything this off season, I think its the TD community that is unhappy with Suzuki, not the Twins, they'll let Suzuki's contract run out and hope one of the minor league guys, Garver or Turner learns how to hit.

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    I know they have said he won't be traded but that usually doesn't mean much (GM's never lie) so I'd go after Vogt with the A's. Very solid LH bat with some power and he'd fit nice into our lineup. Might cost a lot but we have plenty of prospects and few spots for them all.

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    I'll preface this by saying overall, the is no question Kurt Suzuki is hurting the team offensively. That said, the Twins -- misguidedly -- have noted his "professional" at bats, particularly with runners in scoring position.

     

    2014-2015

    RISP: .312/.363/.434 in 205 PA 

    Bases Empty: .254/.315/.343 in 438 PA

     

    2015 

    RISP: .290/.342/.403 in 73 PA

    Bases Empty: .200/.260/.280 in 146 PA

     

    That's the kind of thing the coaching staff salivates over. Producing under those conditions. This is not meant as a defense but an answer to the people who keep asking why the Twins keep trotting him out there.

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    If the Twins had used Suzuki to try and evaluate Pinto as a starter last year, most of what they did would have made sense. But they didn't. They signed a guy with a long history of mediocrity, who went BS crazy for three months, and then paid him based on that small sample size. And they got exactly what they deserved. Massive regression to the norm. I never saw the rationale to this. If you are going to play a catcher who can't hit, at least play one who is a very good defensive catcher.

    And what would the Twins have done this year when Pinto has been hurt most of the year?

     

    Let's put to rest this notion of "buying high".  He signed a contract that they could easily afford or eat if they had to.  Signing a guy for two years at modest money is not the definition of buying high.

     

    We could have had John Buck - who hoo!

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    I like the idea of a Vogt/Suzuki (and eventually) Pinto platoon.  My big issue here is his age.  At 30, he's got a lot of mileage on those knees already.  I'd be much more excited about it if he were a couple years younger.  The real question is whether Oakland would want someone like Plouffe for him.  I doubt it.  He's going to cost prospects.  Who that is determines whether or not you get him.

     

    As for Suzuki, the extension wasn't a bad option.  It's not like we could have found better in free agency.  If we were getting an awesome prospect for him, I think he'd have been traded last year. 

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    And what would the Twins have done this year when Pinto has been hurt most of the year?

     

    Let's put to rest this notion of "buying high".  He signed a contract that they could easily afford or eat if they had to.  Signing a guy for two years at modest money is not the definition of buying high.

     

    We could have had John Buck - who hoo!

     

    How do we know he would have gotten hurt had he been the starting catcher? No way of knowing, but by being #1 on the depth chart, vs #2 he would have been in a different situation in ST and likely would never have got hit on the back of the head by Adam F@$&ing Jones. 

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    And what would the Twins have done this year when Pinto has been hurt most of the year?

     

    Let's put to rest this notion of "buying high".  He signed a contract that they could easily afford or eat if they had to.  Signing a guy for two years at modest money is not the definition of buying high.

     

    We could have had John Buck - who hoo!

     

    Had the team opted to trade him last year, there was quite a bit of catcher movement this offseason we could have indulged in.

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    The Twins signed him to a very reasonable contract that could easily be accepted in a back up role.  By signing him, they essentially protected themselves against the possibility that their prospects might not develop or that they could end up with something worse in free agency.

    The Twins also effectively punted on looking for an upgrade for an offseason / 12 calendar months.  When they had no prospects to develop in MLB (they clearly didn't trust Pinto, and there was no one else even remotely ready), and they didn't even try to find something else in free agency.

     

    I think exploring the market for a better or longer-term solution would have been well worth potentially having to overpay Suzuki in the offseason.

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    Let's put to rest this notion of "buying high".  He signed a contract that they could easily afford or eat if they had to.

    See my post above -- the issue wasn't really "buying high" but settling for a low-upside guy they may very well have to bench/eat soon rather than explore the market.  I guarantee you that TR wasn't working the phones looking at other catchers last winter, when he probably should have been, arguably more than trying to ink Ervin Santana.

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    I'll preface this by saying overall, the is no question Kurt Suzuki is hurting the team offensively. That said, the Twins -- misguidedly -- have noted his "professional" at bats, particularly with runners in scoring position.

     

    2014-2015

    RISP: .312/.363/.434 in 205 PA 

    Bases Empty: .254/.315/.343 in 438 PA

     

    2015 

    RISP: .290/.342/.403 in 73 PA

    Bases Empty: .200/.260/.280 in 146 PA

     

    That's the kind of thing the coaching staff salivates over. Producing under those conditions. This is not meant as a defense but an answer to the people who keep asking why the Twins keep trotting him out there.

     

    True. The thing that is funny about it, though, is that this makes him a much better backup who can come in and pinch hit for somebody in those situations!

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    You can find a mediocre veteran C pretty much any off-season

    Yup.  AJ, Soto, Hundley, etc. -- and even Suzuki himself the winter before (actual multiple seasons before, if we consider his low-cost trades).

     

    I guess if they wanted to lock up Suzuki just to have something, but still look at the market for upgrades, that would be okay, but I am pretty confident they didn't do that.  At least not last offseason, and that decision is hurting them now.  In July 2014, Suzuki was guaranteed to be Plan A for 2015, without any real Plan B given the obvious mistrust and issues around Pinto.

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    The Twins also effectively punted on looking for an upgrade for an offseason / 12 calendar months.  When they had no prospects to develop in MLB (they clearly didn't trust Pinto, and there was no one else even remotely ready), and they didn't even try to find something else in free agency.

     

    I think exploring the market for a better or longer-term solution would have been well worth potentially having to overpay Suzuki in the offseason.

     

    Not much the Twins could have done this last off-season to upgrade the catcher position, at least from a free agency standpoint. The best option was Brian McCann 5/85 and the Twins are never going to win a bidding war against the Yanks. Other options out there: Jarrod Saltalamachia? He was terrible this season for the Marlins and got a buyout. AJ Pierzynski? 37 years old oh boy...

     

    I hate that we're in this spot with so few options besides Suzuki. But the only option to make an upgrade was through trades. And who knows maybe some of the rookies making an impact this season would have been offered to get a catcher...

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    And what would the Twins have done this year when Pinto has been hurt most of the year?

     

    Let's put to rest this notion of "buying high".  He signed a contract that they could easily afford or eat if they had to.  Signing a guy for two years at modest money is not the definition of buying high.

     

    We could have had John Buck - who hoo!

    Knowing Pinto was gonna get hit in the head three times is beyond my psychic abilities, so I would have had to have made that decision with the available knowledge last July, when Pinto had not yet gotten whacked. If my psychic abilities had reached the level of some on TD, I would have kept Ramos, knowing Mauer was going to get foul tipped to death many years later. (Actually I would have kept him anyway).
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    My only issue with the article is, the Twins did not pay Suzuki big bucks.  Everyone knew Suzuki was not a .300 hitter, and the contract seems pretty reasonable.  (Note: NBA Free Agency just started, and those contract offers are just CRAZY. DeAndre Jordan at $22 million/year??  It's hard to keep things in perspective).

     

    I think the Twins need to play Suzuki less.  For whatever reason, he seems worn out to me.  I really like bringing Fryer up as the backup catcher.  He will not hit any better than Suzuki has this year, but he will be a much better catcher.  Small improvements are still improvements.

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    Yup.  AJ, Soto, Hundley, etc. -- and even Suzuki himself the winter before (actual multiple seasons before, if we consider his low-cost trades).

     

    I guess if they wanted to lock up Suzuki just to have something, but still look at the market for upgrades, that would be okay, but I am pretty confident they didn't do that.  At least not last offseason, and that decision is hurting them now.  In July 2014, Suzuki was guaranteed to be Plan A for 2015, without any real Plan B given the obvious mistrust and issues around Pinto.

    They have done this before! See Aaron Hicks!
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    Not much the Twins could have done this last off-season to upgrade the catcher position, at least from a free agency standpoint. The best option was Brian McCann 5/85 and the Twins are never going to win a bidding war against the Yanks. Other options out there: Jarrod Saltalamachia? He was terrible this season for the Marlins and got a buyout. AJ Pierzynski? 37 years old oh boy...

     

    I hate that we're in this spot with so few options besides Suzuki. But the only option to make an upgrade was through trades. And who knows maybe some of the rookies making an impact this season would have been offered to get a catcher...

    Actually McCann was the previous offseason -- Russell Martin was the premier catching FA this past winter, signing for a similar amount with Toronto.

     

    Given the state of our catching, it would have been hard to argue if the Twins decided to use the money budgeted for Suzuki and Ervin Santana to make a run at Martin instead (or even McCann as Mauer had just quit catching), or taken a gamble on Miguel Montero.  The FA outlook at the position is fairly bleak the next couple years, so now we're probably left scrambling around with Suzuki types anyway, or trying to engineer a potentially more costly trade of talent.

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    Actually McCann was the previous offseason -- Russell Martin was the premier catching FA this past winter, signing for a similar amount with Toronto.

     

    Given the state of our catching, it would have been hard to argue if the Twins decided to use the money budgeted for Suzuki and Ervin Santana to make a run at Martin instead (or even McCann as Mauer had just quit catching), or taken a gamble on Miguel Montero. The FA outlook at the position is fairly bleak the next couple years, so now we're probably left scrambling around with Suzuki types anyway, or trying to engineer a potentially more costly trade of talent.

    Whoops, that's what happens when you Google "best free agent catchers 2014" thinking it was for the 2014 off season heading into this year.

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    And what would the Twins have done this year when Pinto has been hurt most of the year?

     

    Let's put to rest this notion of "buying high".  He signed a contract that they could easily afford or eat if they had to.  Signing a guy for two years at modest money is not the definition of buying high.

     

    We could have had John Buck - who hoo!

    Just cuz you can afford something doesn't mean you didn't overpay

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    I'll preface this by saying overall, the is no question Kurt Suzuki is hurting the team offensively. That said, the Twins -- misguidedly -- have noted his "professional" at bats, particularly with runners in scoring position.

     

    2014-2015

    RISP: .312/.363/.434 in 205 PA

    Bases Empty: .254/.315/.343 in 438 PA

     

    2015

    RISP: .290/.342/.403 in 73 PA

    Bases Empty: .200/.260/.280 in 146 PA

     

    That's the kind of thing the coaching staff salivates over. Producing under those conditions. This is not meant as a defense but an answer to the people who keep asking why the Twins keep trotting him out there.

    I don't doubt the coaches like this about Suzuki, but asking him to bunt with runners on first and second kind of muddles the whole theory.

     

     

    EDIT: granted bunting Suzuki there assures Dozier will bat with RISP.

    Edited by Hosken Bombo Disco
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    This is one position I have no issue with.  I did not like the way that they dealt with Pinto in the past, but right now he is not an option and no one else is ready.  I assume Suzuki is a place holder and eventually one of the minor league catchers will emerge - just not this year.

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    Sometimes I really hate watching the Nationals games when Wilson Ramos is playing. Sure would be nice to have kept him...oh that's right, we traded him for Matt Capps, wherever he is now. Yeah, I'm not still bitter about that one...

     

    I like Kurt Suzuki though, hope he turns it around. It was pretty fun last year to see him and Perkins close out the All-Star Game at Target Field.

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