Official Winter Meetings Wednesday Thread

 

Below average defensively, not overall.

Also, might want to check on that for Dozier. Altuve and Canon both outpaced Dozier by a good amount in bWAR.

So a below average CF defensively with an OPS of .790. And I know its just one websites opinion but bleacher report said Dozier was the best secondbaseman in baseball. If he's not the best he's top 5 no doubt.

 

Yes, because you take into account salary, years of control and age.  Eaton's surplus value is incredible.

 

Eaton is younger, is going to get paid 38.4 M for the next 5 years.  Even if you assume he'll play CF EVERY year of the next 5 (which I highly doubt), you're probably looking at a 3-3.5 WAR play per year.  So if we say 8M per WAR, and you figure an average of 3.25 WAR for 5 years, that's 130M.  130M minus 39 equals 91M of surplus. About 30M more than Dozier.

You bring up really good points using WAR and salary, but if you were to draft a team Dozier would be picked way ahead of Eaton. If you could have two years of dozier or 5 of eaton i'm no doubt taking Dozier. And if you're the nationals and harper is gonna be gone in two years isn't your best chance to win now? So why not take the 2 years of dozier instead?

 

And if players are graded on surplus value of their salary from WAR I bet there would be some real funny player rankings.... 

 

 

So a below average CF defensively with an OPS of .790. And I know its just one websites opinion but bleacher report said Dozier was the best secondbaseman in baseball. If he's not the best he's top 5 no doubt.

 

You bring up really good points using WAR and salary, but if you were to draft a team Dozier would be picked way ahead of Eaton. If you could have two years of dozier or 5 of eaton i'm no doubt taking Dozier. And if you're the nationals and harper is gonna be gone in two years isn't your best chance to win now? So why not take the 2 years of dozier instead?

 

And if players are graded on surplus value of their salary from WAR I bet there would be some real funny player rankings.... 

If I had a choice between 5 years of Eaton or two years of Dozier, it'd be easy.  5 years of Eaton, no doubt about it.  

 

People are determining value and it's not just by looking solely at who is the better player with nothing else included.  Age, years of control, salary and skill. All needs to be looked at.

Edited December 8, 2016 by jimmer

I don't understand why the Nats didn't just sign Dexter Fowler. Pretty close to as good as Eaton. Sure, he'd cost more, but I can't imagine the Nats are hurting for money. Plus that's just looking at "cost" as salary, Eaton cost them his salary and those three prospects. I don't get it, but hopefully this means the Twins can get a similar haul for Dozier. While you can at least compare Eaton to Fowler there is no one on the free agent market comparable to Dozier.

 

If I had a choice between 5 years of Eaton or two years of Dozier, it'd be easy.  5 years of Eaton, no doubt about it.  

 

People are determining value and it's not just by looking solely at who is the better player with nothing else included.  Age, years of control, salary and skill. All needs to be looked at.

It's a good point, but I still just have a hard time finding more value in Eaton. It's just way easier to find an outfielder that will replace Eatons value than it is to find a guy that will do what Dozier does. Every year there's a ton of Eatons available in free agency, of course at a higher price. Also I get Dozier won't put up 42 homers again, but the fact he puts up 25 in a half of a baseball season provides hope. It's not like the pirates traded for Eaton looking for a deal, it was the Nationals who would have no problem with money issues. I just think you can find Eatons other places, but there is not a lot of Doziers.

So a below average CF defensively with an OPS of .790. And I know its just one websites opinion but bleacher report said Dozier was the best secondbaseman in baseball. If he's not the best he's top 5 no doubt.

 

You're knocking a .790 OPS, but last year was Dozier's first time topping .762. Consistency also comes into play -- Dozier has a much more volatile projection.

 

Also reports on Eaton's CF defense are somewhat mixed. I wouldn't be surprised if he handled it at an average level for a year or two yet (he is still 2 years younger than Dozier after all). And if you don't like him at CF, you still have a plus corner defender. If Dozier slips a bit defensively at 2B in his 30s, what do you have?

Edited December 8, 2016 by spycake

I think Santana's value will be higher this year at the trade deadline. I like Santana and all, but you can always find mid rotation guys on the FA market without having to give up assets to trade for one.

 

Inevitably one team contending will be short a solid pitcher come the deadline, trade him then.

I just think you can find Eatons other places, but there is not a lot of Doziers.

Dozier wasn't even a Dozier until a few months ago.

 

I think you overestimate the ease of finding a comparable player to Eaton. He has averaged 5.1 bWAR over the past 3 years. Dexter Fowler's career high is 4.2, and his next best is 2.8. And he's 3 years older than Eaton, and will cost a first round draft pick and a lot more than Eaton's current contract.

 

Not to mention, the Nats don't have unlimited funds. Getting a strong outfielder at a discount is what helps them afford a Max Scherzer.

 

(Moreover, if you are discussing Dozier vs Eaton for the Nats specifically, the Nats are stacked in the middle infield with Turner, Murphy, and Espinosa. There is just no way that Dozier would be of equal value to them as Eaton. The calculus is hopefully different for another club, of course.)

I get the Eaton value. I think the Nationals got a good player but for that price... I'm surprised that the Nationals couldn't have gotten Robertson along with Eaton in the deal. 

 

The Nats need some back end of the bullpen work. 

 

I think Santana's value will be higher this year at the trade deadline. I like Santana and all, but you can always find mid rotation guys on the FA market without having to give up assets to trade for one.

Inevitably one team contending will be short a solid pitcher come the deadline, trade him then.

 

Based on the starting pitching available in free agency there are very few mid rotation starters this year. The top of the FA starting pitcher list is Ivan Nova, Rich Hill, and Jason Hammel and beyond that I don't know that I'd consider any of the other free agents capable of being an adequate mid rotation starter.

 

Because of the lack of quality starting pitcher options I'm all for making Ervin Santana available to see If an overpay type of offer comes along. 

 

Dozier wasn't even a Dozier until a few months ago.

I think you overestimate the ease of finding a comparable player to Eaton. He has averaged 5.1 bWAR over the past 3 years. Dexter Fowler's career high is 4.2, and his next best is 2.8. And he's 3 years older than Eaton, and will cost a first round draft pick and a lot more than Eaton's current contract.

Not to mention, the Nats don't have unlimited funds. Getting a strong outfielder at a discount is what helps them afford a Max Scherzer.

(Moreover, if you are discussing Dozier vs Eaton for the Nats specifically, the Nats are stacked in the middle infield with Turner, Murphy, and Espinosa. There is just no way that Dozier would be of equal value to them as Eaton. The calculus is hopefully different for another club, of course.)

Reading on it the plan for the Nats would be to move Murphy to first and Zimmerman to the bench, it seems they're fed up with his play. So yes there is a spot for Dozier with Turner in center like last year and Espinosa at short and Murphy 1B.

 

Really though watching the AL central people would take Eaton for 5 over Dozier for 2. You have no clue where you will be in 5 years anyways, you will have lost Harper, Werth and Murphey so why not get the better player and win this yeat or next? they'll still have an outfield of Werth, Turner and Harper. It's hard after Dozier had an incredible year for a 2B and Eaton had a slightly above average in RF, that the Nats would do this trade for Eaton before snyone else. Eaton has value but not as much as he was traded for.

Yankees just signed Chapman to a 5 year deal for $86 million.

Zoiks.  I'm kinda thinking this Eaton trade is going to be the Nats' version of the Wilson Ramos trade.  Some kind of freaky karma there...

 

 

Reading on it the plan for the Nats would be to move Murphy to first and Zimmerman to the bench, it seems they're fed up with his play. So yes there is a spot for Dozier with Turner in center like last year and Espinosa at short and Murphy 1B.

 

Really though watching the AL central people would take Eaton for 5 over Dozier for 2. You have no clue where you will be in 5 years anyways, you will have lost Harper, Werth and Murphey so why not get the better player and win this yeat or next? they'll still have an outfield of Werth, Turner and Harper. It's hard after Dozier had an incredible year for a 2B and Eaton had a slightly above average in RF, that the Nats would do this trade for Eaton before snyone else. Eaton has value but not as much as he was traded for.

They probably don't want Turner in CF long-term before he has had a chance at SS. Remember Danny Santana?

 

No team knows where it is going to be in 5 years, but that doesn't mean 5 years of control has no value. They have more options with Eaton -- if the team fades after a couple years, they can always flip him to rebuild/reload. If he struggles, well, the last 2 of those 5 years are team options. There is zero time to realistically flip Dozier, and zero chance of extending him as cheaply as Eaton is controlled.

 

Finally, you keep assuming that Dozier is definitively better than Eaton based entirely off of 2016. Eaton has the higher career OPS, for Pete Redfern's sake. Eaton has steadily averaged 16 Rbat the last 3 years. Dozier did post 30 last year, but was actually -2 the year before that, and 13 the year before that. There is a good chance that that Dozier is no better offensively than Eaton in 2017, and an excellent chance that any Dozier advantage is relatively minor (under 10 runs or 1 win).

 

And in terms of defensive value, there really isn't that much difference between an averageish defensive second baseman and a slightly below average defensive CF or an excellent defensive corner outfielder. The 2B positional adjustment is +4, and Dozier has averaged +1 Rfield, for a net +5 runs per season. CF positional adjustment is +3, and Eaton has averaged -2 runs in CF, for a net +1. 4 runs difference, less than half a win. Plus there is evidence that Eaton could be a superlative corner OF -- RF comes with a -6 run positional adjustment, but Eaton had 22 Rdrs in his time in RF last year, more than making up for that and even some potential offensive difference.

 

Not to say that Dozier can't be a better player/fit for some teams, but it is not definitive at all.

Edited December 8, 2016 by spycake