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  • Official Twins Daily July Trade Deadline Day Thread


    Seth Stohs

    Happy July 31st Trade Deadline Day!!

    This article will be updated throughout Monday with any rumors associated with the Minnesota Twins. Be sure to check back frequently for discussion of rumors. Obviously any Twins transactions will get a new article for deeper discussion on it.

    The Twins gave us fans a great run of some really exciting baseball for the season's first 100 games. It's clear that they need to be sellers at this time, and they have several players that teams should be interested in. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine's phones (and they may have multiple phones each) will be busy. Hopefully they remember to bring their chargers to work!

    More important for fans to remember, the Twins have a core of players on their roster, and some younger players who should get opportunities the rest of the way. This team should be fun to watch the rest of this season as we look toward a 2018 in which we will have hope. Hope is a good thing!

    Image courtesy of Sergio Estrada, USA Today

    Twins Video

    Update 2:00 p.m. - Jerry Crasnick says the Twins may be nearing a trade of Brandon Kintzler... well, yeah, there's under one hour to go until the deadline!

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    Update 11:11 a.m. - In response to Feinsand, Mike Berardino tweeted that the Twins expect a Kintzler deal to go "down to the wire."

    Darren Wolfson tweeted that the Nationals, Rays and Rockies have shown a lot of interest in Kintzler.

    Wolfson added the idea that Kintzler could be brought back in the offseason, even if he is traded.

    https://twitter.com/DWolfsonKSTP/status/892054929610866688

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    Update 10:30 a.m. - Mark Feinsand from MLB.com notes that as Justin Wilson and Addison Reed have come off the board, the Twins are getting more interest in Kintzler...

    https://twitter.com/Feinsand/status/892045429466116096

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    Update (9:30 a.m.) - It's been remarkably quiet on the Twins Trade rumor front so far this morning. Addison Reed was just traded from the Mets to the Red Sox.

    https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/892029770443231232

    Does this remove the Red Sox as a potential landing spot for Brandon Kintzler? There are likely still many other teams involved in discussions as well, but having the Red Sox involved can't hurt.

    https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/892034185426325504

    The Red Sox gave up three prospects for him, but none higher than their 18th ranked prospect. So, this, like the Neshek deal last week, sets an expectation that the Twins might be able to get quantity, but they probably won't get high-ranking prospects for Kintzler.

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    We all woke up on Sunday morning and soon learned that the Twins and Yankees had agreed to a trade that sent LHP Jaime Garcia to New York in exchange for RHP Zack Littell and LHP Dietrich Enns.

    The Twins went on to lose to the Oakland A's for the second straight game in walk-off fashion. While the front office had essentially acknowledged a day earlier that they were now in sell mode, the two losses in the Bay Area should have made it official.

    We tried to keep up with Twins rumors the rest of Sunday. There were some rumors on the likely trade candidates, and we know that many times there is a trade of an unlikely player. Who will that player be for the Twins tomorrow, if there is one?

    I think we can all agree that Brandon Kintzler is the player most likely to be traded tomorrow. Because he can fill so many roles for a team, from seventh inning reliever to closer (if needed), any playoff contender could find a role for him. Also, he is an impending free agent.

    https://twitter.com/NickNelsonMN/status/891848263451783168

    It's hard to disagree with Nick's tweet from Sunday night. Because he can be a free agent, it seems wise for the Twins to get whatever they can for him as opposed to getting nothing for him at the end of the season. I can't imagine the Twins would make him a qualifying offer at approximately $18 million for 2018.

    Yu Darvish and Sonny Gray have yet to be traded. Maybe they won't be. Either way, it would seem that Ervin Santana is more of a fall-back plan for those teams like the Dodgers or Astros.

    There doesn't seem to be a lot of rumors swirling around Brian Dozier. A home run in his first at-bat on Sunday was followed by five strikeouts, which probably isn't what a potential trade suitor would want to see. Then again, Dozier's got five years worth of data points that teams are fully aware of.

    Matt Belisle is currently the Twins most reliable reliever. He also is a free agent at the end of the season. He is another guy that teams will consider as a sixth or seventh inning guy since they know that he won't buckle under the pressure of big-game situations. The return would certainly be small, but since he's a free agent, getting anything back would be good.

    And again, there will be plenty of rumors throughout the day, and this article will be updated as we hear them. Updates will happen at the top of the body of the article, so be sure to check back often and discuss.

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    Angels are apparently looking for the 2B. Could Dozier to the other LA team happen out of the blue?

     

    My prediction would be Dozier is either extended or traded to the Angels in the offseason.

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    My prediction would be Dozier is either extended or traded to the Angels in the offseason.

     

    I think it would be hard to extend him. He and his agent are probably going to be looking at his numbers while the Twins brass would be looking at the glut of middle infielders not only in the league but in the system. I would think on the open market, Dozier would probably be vastly underpaid based on his production, I'd hate for the Twins to have to more than market value to keep one of their own. A reverse hometown discount?

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    Exactly. Aren't you 87 years old on one birth certificate? 

     

     

    no.  Don't be ridiculous.

     

    I could never pass for 87.

    I was shocked to hear that they even did birth certificates when you were born, Chief.  Then I figured that they just carved it onto a slab of stone a la the Flintstones.  

    Edited by wsnydes
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    Because he should fetch a great return compared to other options. Kepler changed his swing and hitting profile to gain more power. There is a risk that the added HRs came at a significant price. You can't call a dead pull hitter who can't hit lefties an all around hitter. He's also not hitting for much average or power right now. Is he Jacque Jones or Justin Morneau?

    I'm having a very difficult time figuring out what your goal is by trading Kepler.  To get a minor league prospect?  Trades like that just don't happen.  Kepler is more or less still a prospect himself. I'm not sure I have ever heard of a prospect for prospect trade.  A proven MLB pitcher?  For Kepler?  Now?  No way.  He's not going to fetch that kind of a return.  Not controllable AND proven.  You could probably get a rental for Kepler, but why do that?

     

    Kepler has the best OPS vs RHP of ANYONE on the Twins roster.  Including Sano and Rosario.  Literally, the only flaw in his game is not being able to hit LHP at ALL.  Against RHP, he hits for avg and power.  His BB walk rate is good.  His K rate is fine.  If the Twins coaches can't help Kepler improve vs LHP, they need different coaches.  Kepler will probably never hit LHP as well as RHP.  Most lefties don't.  But he doesn't need to either.  He just needs to be serviceable vs LHP.  Even a modest .600 OPS vs LHP would make his overall numbers outstanding.  Kepler has a .190 BABIP vs LHP.  That would seem to suggest he's had some bad luck against them this year as well.  Some of it is being a predictable pull hitter, true enough.  But .190?  That's insanely low.  Just doing a little "what if" math, if Kepler had a BABIP of .275 vs LHP, even with no additional walks or extra base hits, his OPS vs LHP would be close to .600.  That works out to 6 scratch/bloop/worm burner singles instead of outs.

     

    Morneau didn't hit LHP that well right away either.  I don't think he was ever sub .400 OPS against them, but I also don't think Kepler is going to continue being THAT bad against them.  It wasn't until Morneau had been in the league 3 years that he started hitting LHP well.

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    if they recover from injury, that's a nice trade for the A's.

     

    For the Yankees, it's a nice, but not cheap, trade.

    I would have to think the Yankees feel pretty good about this trade, giving up 2 injured guys.

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    Nobody the Yankees gave up is even close to Gordon, IMO.
    Gordon is top 35 on midseason mlb list.

    That's fair, it was my initial snap judgment without looking at top 100 lists. I was more comparing the injured pitcher and OF (Kiriloff to Fowler and Jay to Kaprielian) and since the two injured Yankees are slightly higher regarded than the two injured Twins I thought maybe the difference between Gordon and Mateo would cover that difference. Sub Javier in for Gordon and it's a bit light from the Twins standpoint

    Edited by redstorm
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    I was shocked to hear that they even did birth certificates when you were born, Chief.  Then I figured that they just carved it onto a slab of stone a la the Flintstones.  

    I think "Chief" pre-dates writing, he would have been "xxx".... lol

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    I'm having a very difficult time figuring out what your goal is by trading Kepler.  To get a minor league prospect?  Trades like that just don't happen.  Kepler is more or less still a prospect himself. I'm not sure I have ever heard of a prospect for prospect trade.  A proven MLB pitcher?  For Kepler?  Now?  No way.  He's not going to fetch that kind of a return.  Not controllable AND proven.  You could probably get a rental for Kepler, but why do that?

     

    Kepler has the best OPS vs RHP of ANYONE on the Twins roster.  Including Sano and Rosario.  Literally, the only flaw in his game is not being able to hit LHP at ALL.  Against RHP, he hits for avg and power.  His BB walk rate is good.  His K rate is fine.  If the Twins coaches can't help Kepler improve vs LHP, they need different coaches.  Kepler will probably never hit LHP as well as RHP.  Most lefties don't.  But he doesn't need to either.  He just needs to be serviceable vs LHP.  Even a modest .600 OPS vs LHP would make his overall numbers outstanding.  Kepler has a .190 BABIP vs LHP.  That would seem to suggest he's had some bad luck against them this year as well.  Some of it is being a predictable pull hitter, true enough.  But .190?  That's insanely low.  Just doing a little "what if" math, if Kepler had a BABIP of .275 vs LHP, even with no additional walks or extra base hits, his OPS vs LHP would be close to .600.  That works out to 6 scratch/bloop/worm burner singles instead of outs.

     

    Morneau didn't hit LHP that well right away either.  I don't think he was ever sub .400 OPS against them, but I also don't think Kepler is going to continue being THAT bad against them.  It wasn't until Morneau had been in the league 3 years that he started hitting LHP well.

    Apparently you missed the Twins trade of Murphy (prospect) for a pitching prospect.

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    The Yankees gave up their 3rd and 7th best prospect for Gray. The other guy was outside the top 20.

     

    None of them are currently on the MLB.com top 100.

     

    Gray has a career 3.43 ERA and has 2 more years of control. Maybe we should have traded for him.

    Fowler is #77 on mlb.com top 100.

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