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  • Nolasco Stuck In No Man's Land


    Nick Nelson

    Yesterday I posed a question for readers about Trevor May, noting his spectacular numbers as a reliever and pondering whether the Twins should view him as a solution to their bullpen needs going forward.

    The comments section featured a lively discussion and there wasn't much consensus on the best course of action. One thing did appear to to be unanimous, however, and has for some time: No one seems to want Ricky Nolasco in the 2016 rotation, blocking May or any other talented youngster.

    Image courtesy of Andrew Weber, USA Today

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    The distaste for Nolasco amongst Twins fans is certainly understandable. As we all know, his contract has been an unmitigated disaster up to this point. In his first season with the club after becoming the highest-paid free agent in franchise history, he went 6-12 with a 5.38 ERA and 1.52 WHIP, both career-worst marks.

    This year, his numbers didn't look any better on the surface before he went down with an ankle injury that ended his season after just two months. In seven starts, he had a 5.53 ERA and 1.65 WHIP.

    However, there were some positive signs hidden within those bloated numbers, and I'm not talking about his irrelevant 5-1 win/loss record. In 32 2/3 innings, Nolasco had a solid 28-to-10 K/BB ratio, and he was showing slightly improved velocity on his fastball. His FIP checked in at a shiny 2.82.

    His main problem was that he was giving up a ton of hits, but the .394 BABIP looks awfully flukish when you consider that he gave up only one home run and 13 total extra-base hits in those seven starts. Nolasco wasn't getting pounded, he was giving up singles in bunches, with an unsustainably low 59.7 percent strand rate. That kind of misfortune tends to even out over extended time, but the righty never had the chance for normalization to set in because he has been on the disabled list since the end of May.

    His ankle issues have been frustrating, undoubtedly for him as much as anyone. It was apparently an old injury that resurfaced, and Nolasco took a cortisone shot before ultimately going under the knife in July to try and correct it.

    While he's unlikely to throw another pitch this season, Nolasco will have a full offseason to heal up and return next year. At that point, his quality peripherals, along with his track record and his not-all-that-advanced age (he'll turn 33 in December), offer plenty of reason to believe that he can rebound and return to being the useful starter that the Twins thought they were signing in the first place.

    That's why all the talk I keep seeing about Nolasco being a "sunk cost," and the suggestions that he should simply be cut outright this winter, strike me as a little ridiculous. He is owed $25 million after this season. I know it's not our money, but does it really seem wise to just flush it down the drain when we've barely had a chance to see what Nolasco can do when he's right physically?

    It's not, and it's not realistic. Nolasco will be here at the start of the 2016 season. If things get off to a similarly brutal start, then at that time I could perhaps see the Twins taking the rather drastic step of cutting ties and eating many millions of dollars. But they won't do so before then, nor should they.

    However, it is not unthinkable that another club could take interest in the veteran starter during the offseason and flip another bulky contract for his, or take on a share of what he's owed with the Twins picking up the rest. There were some rumblings of the Twins and Padres working on something with Nolasco and James Shields leading up to the deadline, though nothing materialized.

    If you're looking to see a Twins rotation next April that doesn't include Nolasco – and who could blame you, since there figure to be several more trustworthy options available – that might be your best bet.

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    He also left out Alex Meyer who has taken a big step back this year but could potentially get it back together by next season

    Meyer still has hope, but he shouldn't be counted on to being an asset for 2016, Milone, Duffey, Berrios, and May all should be IMO

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    I did think about bringing up the idea of shifting Nolasco to the bullpen, but it seems like a longshot since he's made 1 relief appearance in the last 7 years and has never gained much experience in the role. Could still happen though.

     

    Hughes to the bullpen is an interesting idea, as he was an absolutely dominant reliever for the Yankees back in '09. But I suspect he'll get quite a bit more leash as a starter based on his 2015 season and his contract.

    I suspect he'll get quite a bit more leash since he's 26-18 since joining our favorite team.

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    I don't care what the Twins have to do, get rid of this clown.  Trade him for future considerations, include other prospects to sweeten the deal, eat half his salary whatever.  They have to get rid of this guy. 

     

    There is absolutely no reason to Ricky Nolasco in the rotation next season or 2017 other than contract status.  The future is now, it's time dump these non productive starters even if we have to eat significant salary. 

     

    Oh by the way, I hope the league owners insist on adding a contract  escape clause for players caught doping.  Santana has taken Terry Ryan to the cleaners and is laughing all the way to the bank.  

     

    The Twins don't need Nolasco, Pelfrey or Santana.  Get rid of these guys and let the kids pitch.  Wht a difference when you ACTUALLY HAVE talent (Duffey, May, Berrios, etc.)  instead of expesive as beens and low velocity AAAA'ers.  

    Edited by laloesch
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    Trying to categorize all the Twins starters...

     

    Expensive Veterans with Issues

    Hughes (back, velocity down)

    Pelfrey (can't hold runners)

    Nolasco (arm, ankle)

    ...

    Santana (PEDs) <-- not an ongoing problem

     

    Young Guys with Upside

    Gibson (sinker baller, low K)

    May (keeps improving wherever you put him)

    DuffEy, aka Extra E, Bender, Dr. Hook

    Berrios (future staff ace)

     

    Talented Prospects with Control Problems

    Meyer

    Burdi

     

    Unlikely Starters

    Milone

     

    The scene at Spring Training could be very interesting if all these guys are still around. Hughes and Nolasco both will have to prove that they are physically able to perform at a winning level.

    The four young starters will have to show that they can get guys out without walking people.

    Burdi and Meyer will have to stop walking people or remain stuck in the minors another year.

     

    The one guy that seems least likely to stick around as a starter is Tommy Milone. He's stacked up against a lot of talent. Maybe he becomes Deunsing's replacement?

     

    To me it seems like Nolasco could be competing on equal ground with Phil Hughes, who has a slight edge from a great 2014, but now appears to be losing his essential velocity. Nolasco's ability (when healthy) to pepper the zone from different angles with many different pitches might be more effective than Hughes's aggressive attack of the zone, but with less zip on the heater.

     

    A better option for the building Twins might be during the off season to unload all the veteran starters except Santana, in an effort to acquire prospects, but especially a catcher that can platoon with Suzuki. I'm not all in for trading for shortstops. Danny Santana could still pan out, and Polanco could, too.

     

    The other issue is improving the bull pen, which the Twins already did with Cotts and Jepsen. I could see possibly swapping Pelfrey and May next season, tho it's more likely that Pelfrey will continue to insist on starting, thus wind up somewhere else.

     

    Another puzzle is JR Graham. He's not really a bull pen guy, is he. Also wondering about Ryan Pressley. Going forward, a possible starter?

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    What kind of prospect do people still think Milone can acquire? Sam Fuld again. No disrepect to Milone, but I think the market on his is pretty well defined at this point.

    I don't think that's true at all. Beane vastly overpaid for Fuld and most of us felt that way at the time. The performance of each player since the trade has cemented that feeling. Fuld has been a replacement level player for the A's. Milone has been better than that for the Twins.

     

    It was a bad trade by Beane, doubly so after the A's collapsed and didn't even make the ALDS last season.

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    Why does Berrios need to get shut down soon?  That makes no sense.  He pitched 160 innings last year and is at 155 this year.  Most likely he was denied winter ball because they want him available for the full MLB season next year and don't want him getting 2+ months of winter ball added on.  I am not sure I would have him finish the MLB season but he should be able to pitch 180 innings this year unless he looks fatigued.

     

    Milone at 5-ish M in arbitration isn't bringing back anything interesting.  Make him the swingman RP'er/SP'er depth next season if he can't win a rotation spot.

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    When Nolasco is written about, "quality peripherals" invariably are mentioned. Fact is, Nolasco is not a "useful starter". He never seems to get the results the peripherals suggest he is capable of, and it was a bad signing, unless you are conditioned to accept that a win one lose one pitcher with a 4-5 ERA is useful. Santana, Nolasco, Pelfrey, and even the Hughes extension (when he had 2 years left on his contract) was misguided, in my opinion, at the time and now. I am so tired of mediocre free agents being signed. 

    H20 - From what I recall, Santana, Nolasco for sure, and possibly Pelfrey were "top 10 starting pitching free-agents" when each of them hit the market.  I'm not arguing the fact that these signings have not turned out as well as hoped, but the Twins needed starting pitching and these were some of the best available in free agency.  Thus I don't blame the F.O. - at least they tried.

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    Only one person really mentioned this but Nolasco's good FIP this season is misleading.  His xFIP was 4.01 because he was really lucky with HR's.  And he has continually underperformed his xFIP by 0.7 ERA throughout his career.  This was the one glaring issue in signing him but the hope was that perhaps his results were finally matching his stuff (peripherals).  The injuries certainly haven't helped him though and he will get every chance to make the team in the spring but he is an unlikely candidate to make the rotation partly due to the depth the Twins have now.

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    To me, the Nolasco thing is much like Pelfrey, but with a much higher price tag. Like Pelfrey, Nolasco hasn't been right physically in his two years with the Twins. Like Pelfrey, he is perceived as standing in front of younger, cheaper, better options. Like Pelfrey, he hasn't had enough success in a Twins uniform for many fans to believe there is still quality in his right arm.

     

    It is probably nothing, but during spring training, Nolasco seemed to be the guy who wouldn't be conforming with what ever drill the pitchers were doing. His on-field demeanor has always non-plussed me as well. However, I've seen just enough of the "good Ricky" that I believe there is value there.

     

    While the Twins have obvious weak spots in their position players, starting pitching always has to be a high priority. Nolasco can be part of the solution.

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