Most Valuable Non-Prospect Offensive Trade Pieces

More often than not we tie top prospects to big name trades because of their potential and years of team control remaining. According to Baseball Reference, the Twins had the 8th oldest line up in 2020 at an average age of 28.7 although the likes of Nelson Cruz and Marwin Gonzalez skew that a little. Sorting the Twins by at bats in 2020 shows that of the top 10 Cruz and Gonzalez, and Ehire Adrianza are the only players that are older than the average. Replacing Cruz’s 185 at-bats with a 25-year-old Brent Rooker and the Twins are all of a sudden the 8th youngest lineup in baseball. No, that’s not an exact science, but my point is that for having one of the best offenses in baseball the Twins are young.

In 2021 the team may try and retain Cruz, but I think we’ve seen the last of Gonzalez and Adrianza in Twins uniforms. This will leave room for either a couple of free agent additions or for a couple prospects to get semi-regular or more playing time. With Rooker, Alex Kiriloff, Trevor Larnach, and Royce Lewis all being legitimate candidates to play for the Twins in 2021 it may be time to make room for them in the Major League lineup rather than wait for a current starter to succumb to an injury. With a logjam in the outfield, I think the Twins will let Eddie Rosario walk...at this point we know Eddie’s ceiling which can be good but we also know his floor. If I’m the Twins I want to give an opportunity to one of the aforementioned prospects in 2021. That still leaves us with two more outfielders and another who could play the outfield if needed.

Though they may not be prospects anymore, the Twins have some young Major League starters who have years of team control left and are on team friendly deals. These are the top three most valuable non-prospect offensive players that I would consider trading over the offseason.

1. Max Kepler, 27, 4 years AAV $7MM + $10MM 5th year team option = 5 years, $7.6MM maximum

It didn’t take long for Max Kepler to establish himself as an everyday Major Leaguer and really breakthrough in 2019 having his best year as a pro. There’s no doubt that he struggled in 2020, specifically making solid contact, but how much does one weird season outweigh the two seasons previous where he produced a combined 7.1 fWAR? By the way, that would rank him as the 15th best outfielder in baseball. On the defensive side of the ball you have one of the best corner outfielders in the game, as well as someone who has shown the ability to play centerfield at an above average level. Combine this with an extremely cheap contract maxing out at $38MM over five-years, and you may have one of the most valuable Major League starters in all of baseball.

2. Jorge Polanco, 27, 4 years AAV $5.3MM + 10.5MM 5th year vested option + $12MM 6th year team option = 6 years, AAV $7.3MM maximum

We knew at the time of Polanco and Kepler contracts that they were very team friendly, but it’s surprising to see how truly team friendly they are when you consider their contributions to the lineup. Like Kepler, Polanco was another player who didn’t take long to establish himself at the Major League level. Like Kepler, he broke out with a bang in 2019. And like Kepler, he really struggled in 2020. Unlike Kepler, it was learned the day after the Twins lost game two against Houston that Polanco hadn’t really been healthy for a majority of the season. Back-to-back offseason ankle surgeries will definitely hurt his value a little bit, but that fifth year option only vests if he has 550 at-bats in year four. Furthermore, the fifth year can be bought out for just $1MM. Assuming this ankle surgery isn’t career altering, at worst a team is looking at a guy who could fill-in at 2B, SS, and 3B for just an average salary of $5.5MM. Not bad considering Marwin made more than double that in 2019 alone.

3. Luis Arraez, 24, 2 years of team control + 3 years of arbitration = 5 years maximum

I debated Buxton here but with his checkered injury history and only two years of arbitration remaining, I think Arraez carries more value on the trade market. Arraez unexpectedly broke onto the scene in 2019 in place of a struggling Jonathon Schoop and forced Twins Manager Rocco Baldelli to make him an everyday player. Unlike our previous two players, Arraez mostly picked up from where he left off in 2019. It took him a while to get going in 2020 but he ended the season slashing 0.321/0.364/0.402 while improving his defense immensely. Do I think the Twins will trade him? No. But you can’t deny the value a Major League caliber player has at just 24 years old with five more years of team control, including two of which will be for an AAV around $600K. On base guys with no power may not be the cool thing anymore, but putting a guy like that at the top of a lineup in front of a cool guy sounds enticing to me!

Do you think the Twins will make a big move this offseason? If so, does that move just come from free agency? Does it involve a prospect? Or does it involve someone that contributed in 2020 that isn’t on this list? If not, are you really comfortable with them standing pat after the up and down season this offense had in 2020?

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