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But the Astros only have to come up with two initial plans. Piecing things together it sounds like it could come down to this: The first of their plans is to take Swanson. If they take Swanson, he will take a significant amount of their #2 slot to sign. Then they’ll go BPA at #5 and will be able to find someone falling at #37. You walk away from - probably - the better plan to get the best player in the draft.
The second of their plans is to take Alex Bregman. Bregman could provide them with some savings and more flexibility going forward. That’s where they’ll be able to pull a repeat of their Draft Heist of 2012. Depending on what happens at #3 and #4, there is a very good chance that the two players they like the most, Daz Cameron and Carson Fulmer, are still available. And they might just be able to get them both.
If Cameron goes at #3 or #4, which is real possibility at #4 anyway, the likelihood would be that the Astros go with Tucker and take a falling arm at #37 (Justin Hooper?) with money to spend there.
If, however, both are available, the Astros take Fulmer (or another college pitcher) and wait. It’s a risk, sure, but not an unprecedented one: the Royals did it when they overdrafted Hunter Dozier to get Sean Manaea later. No way they get both otherwise. With every pick that Cameron doesn’t go - first the Twins, then the Red Sox - the likelihood that Cameron gets drafted goes down, because, of course, how do any of those teams pony up $5 million? Once Cameron makes it past the local Braves, it’s smooth sailing. (There may, however, be a few tense moments when the Royals, Dodgers and Yankees make their picks). Next thing you know, Astros are up getting Daz Cameron for $5 million at #37.
Bregman. Fulmer. Cameron. Wow.
How does the rest of the draft shake out?
1) Arizona: Dansby Swanson, SS, Vanderbilt (no change)
2) Houston: Alex Bregman, SS, LSU (Previous: Daz Cameron)
3) Colorado: Brendan Rodgers, SS, Florida HS (no change)
4) Texas: Dillon Tate, RHP, UC Santa Barbara (no change)
5) Houston: Carson Fulmer, RHP, Vanderbilt (Previous: Bregman)
6) Minnesota: Kyle Tucker, OF, Florida HS (no change)
I have a hard time believing the Twins pass on either Bregman or Tate or Tucker. In the event that all three players are gone, Kolby Allard and, potentially, Tyler Jay rise to the top.
7) Boston: Andrew Benintendi, OF, Arkansas (Previous: Fulmer)
8) Chicago (AL): Tyler Jay, LHP, Illinois (no change)
9) Chicago (NL): Jon Harris, RHP, Missouri State (previous: Benintendi)
10) Philadelphia: Tyler Stephenson, C, Atlanta HS (previous: Walker Buehler)
This is a change I made later. Stephenson is a wild card, working out for many teams and literally could go #1 or go #14.
11) Cincinnati: Ian Happ, OF, Cincinnati (previous: Harris)
12) Miami: Trenton Clark, OF, Texas HS (no change)
13) Tampa Bay: James Kaprielian, RHP, UCLA (no change)
14) Atlanta: Brady Aiken, LHP, IMG Academy (previous: Stephenson)
The Braves have a lot of picks and with that comes a lot of money. They also haven’t shied away from acquiring players - like Max Fried - who have been injured. This would be a great addition to the prospect stable.
15) Milwaukee: Kyle Funkhouser, RHP, Louisville (no change)
16) New York (AL): Garrett Whitley, OF, New York HS (no change)
17) Cleveland: Kolby Allard, LHP, California HS (no change)
18) San Francisco: Mike Nikorak, RHP, Pennsylvania HS (no change)
19) Pittsburgh: Ashe Russell, RHP, Indiana HS (no change)
20) Oakland: Walker Buehler, RHP, Vanderbilt (previous: Dewees)
21) Kansas City: Cornelius Randolph, SS, Georgia HS (previous: Aiken)
22) Detroit: Nathan Kirby, LHP, Virginia (previous: Donny Everett)
23) St Louis: Kevin Newman, SS, Arizona (no change)
24) Los Angeles (NL): Mike Matuella, RHP, Duke (previous: Kirby)
Both the Tigers and the Dodgers are teams that don’t seem to care about the cost of spending money. They could acquire talented but injured players who never would have made it to them otherwise.
25) Baltimore: Donnie Dewees, OF, North Florida (previous: Happ)
26) Los Angeles (AL): D.J. Stewart, OF, Florida State (previous: Phil Bickford)
27) Colorado: Jacob Nix, RHP, IMG Academy
28) Atlanta: Jalen Miller, SS, Georgia HS
29) Toronto: Donny Everett, RHP, Tennessee HS
30) New York (AL): Chris Betts, C, California HS
31) San Francisco: Nick Plummer, OF, Michigan HS
32) Pittsburgh: Jake Woodford, RHP, Florida HS
33) Kansas City: Phil Bickford, LHP, College of Southern Nevada
Bickford should go higher, but tested positive for marijuana recently and will likely drop because of it.
34) Detroit: Cody Ponce, RHP, Cal Poly Ponoma
35) Los Angeles (NL): Justin Hooper, LHP, California HS
36) Baltimore: Alex Young, LHP, Texas Christian
37) Houston: Daz Cameron, OF, Georgia HS
And there you have it - the Astros pull a major coup and leave with three of the top 10 talents in the draft.
There's been a ton of other draft-related news on the site, so if you've missed any of it, catch up with these links:
There is also one more set of profiles - The Local Crew - that is yet to come.
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