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  • MLB Draft Preview: Final Mock


    Jeremy Nygaard

    Regardless of what happens over the next 24 hours, this will be my last mock.

    Be sure to listen to me, the Twins Geek, John Bonnes, and Seth Stohs tomorrow on KFAN from 7-8 pm. Guaranteed to be some good draft talk.

    It’s the same old story: The Astros - who don’t even hold the #1 pick this year - hold the key to the draft. And there is a really good chance they walk away from it having totally redeemed themselves for last’s year mess.

    This much is clear: Nothing’s clear. The Diamondbacks are still weighing their options.

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    But the Astros only have to come up with two initial plans. Piecing things together it sounds like it could come down to this: The first of their plans is to take Swanson. If they take Swanson, he will take a significant amount of their #2 slot to sign. Then they’ll go BPA at #5 and will be able to find someone falling at #37. You walk away from - probably - the better plan to get the best player in the draft.

    The second of their plans is to take Alex Bregman. Bregman could provide them with some savings and more flexibility going forward. That’s where they’ll be able to pull a repeat of their Draft Heist of 2012. Depending on what happens at #3 and #4, there is a very good chance that the two players they like the most, Daz Cameron and Carson Fulmer, are still available. And they might just be able to get them both.

    If Cameron goes at #3 or #4, which is real possibility at #4 anyway, the likelihood would be that the Astros go with Tucker and take a falling arm at #37 (Justin Hooper?) with money to spend there.

    If, however, both are available, the Astros take Fulmer (or another college pitcher) and wait. It’s a risk, sure, but not an unprecedented one: the Royals did it when they overdrafted Hunter Dozier to get Sean Manaea later. No way they get both otherwise. With every pick that Cameron doesn’t go - first the Twins, then the Red Sox - the likelihood that Cameron gets drafted goes down, because, of course, how do any of those teams pony up $5 million? Once Cameron makes it past the local Braves, it’s smooth sailing. (There may, however, be a few tense moments when the Royals, Dodgers and Yankees make their picks). Next thing you know, Astros are up getting Daz Cameron for $5 million at #37.

    Bregman. Fulmer. Cameron. Wow.

    How does the rest of the draft shake out?

    1) Arizona: Dansby Swanson, SS, Vanderbilt (no change)

    2) Houston: Alex Bregman, SS, LSU (Previous: Daz Cameron)

    3) Colorado: Brendan Rodgers, SS, Florida HS (no change)

    4) Texas: Dillon Tate, RHP, UC Santa Barbara (no change)

    5) Houston: Carson Fulmer, RHP, Vanderbilt (Previous: Bregman)

    6) Minnesota: Kyle Tucker, OF, Florida HS (no change)

    I have a hard time believing the Twins pass on either Bregman or Tate or Tucker. In the event that all three players are gone, Kolby Allard and, potentially, Tyler Jay rise to the top.

    7) Boston: Andrew Benintendi, OF, Arkansas (Previous: Fulmer)

    8) Chicago (AL): Tyler Jay, LHP, Illinois (no change)

    9) Chicago (NL): Jon Harris, RHP, Missouri State (previous: Benintendi)

    10) Philadelphia: Tyler Stephenson, C, Atlanta HS (previous: Walker Buehler)

    This is a change I made later. Stephenson is a wild card, working out for many teams and literally could go #1 or go #14.

    11) Cincinnati: Ian Happ, OF, Cincinnati (previous: Harris)

    12) Miami: Trenton Clark, OF, Texas HS (no change)

    13) Tampa Bay: James Kaprielian, RHP, UCLA (no change)

    14) Atlanta: Brady Aiken, LHP, IMG Academy (previous: Stephenson)

    The Braves have a lot of picks and with that comes a lot of money. They also haven’t shied away from acquiring players - like Max Fried - who have been injured. This would be a great addition to the prospect stable.

    15) Milwaukee: Kyle Funkhouser, RHP, Louisville (no change)

    16) New York (AL): Garrett Whitley, OF, New York HS (no change)

    17) Cleveland: Kolby Allard, LHP, California HS (no change)

    18) San Francisco: Mike Nikorak, RHP, Pennsylvania HS (no change)

    19) Pittsburgh: Ashe Russell, RHP, Indiana HS (no change)

    20) Oakland: Walker Buehler, RHP, Vanderbilt (previous: Dewees)

    21) Kansas City: Cornelius Randolph, SS, Georgia HS (previous: Aiken)

    22) Detroit: Nathan Kirby, LHP, Virginia (previous: Donny Everett)

    23) St Louis: Kevin Newman, SS, Arizona (no change)

    24) Los Angeles (NL): Mike Matuella, RHP, Duke (previous: Kirby)

    Both the Tigers and the Dodgers are teams that don’t seem to care about the cost of spending money. They could acquire talented but injured players who never would have made it to them otherwise.

    25) Baltimore: Donnie Dewees, OF, North Florida (previous: Happ)

    26) Los Angeles (AL): D.J. Stewart, OF, Florida State (previous: Phil Bickford)

    27) Colorado: Jacob Nix, RHP, IMG Academy

    28) Atlanta: Jalen Miller, SS, Georgia HS

    29) Toronto: Donny Everett, RHP, Tennessee HS

    30) New York (AL): Chris Betts, C, California HS

    31) San Francisco: Nick Plummer, OF, Michigan HS

    32) Pittsburgh: Jake Woodford, RHP, Florida HS

    33) Kansas City: Phil Bickford, LHP, College of Southern Nevada

    Bickford should go higher, but tested positive for marijuana recently and will likely drop because of it.

    34) Detroit: Cody Ponce, RHP, Cal Poly Ponoma

    35) Los Angeles (NL): Justin Hooper, LHP, California HS

    36) Baltimore: Alex Young, LHP, Texas Christian

    37) Houston: Daz Cameron, OF, Georgia HS

    And there you have it - the Astros pull a major coup and leave with three of the top 10 talents in the draft.

    There's been a ton of other draft-related news on the site, so if you've missed any of it, catch up with these links:

    Swanson/Rodgers/Tate

    Walker Buehler

    Andrew Benintendi

    Kyle Funkhouser

    Carson Fulmer

    Tyler Jay

    Brady Aiken & Kolby Allard

    Kyle Tucker

    Jon Harris

    Alex Bregman

    Daz Cameron

    There is also one more set of profiles - The Local Crew - that is yet to come.

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    This is a draft I would take the financial risk on Cameron or medical risk with Aiken. Worst case is they don't sign and we have the number seven pick in a much stronger draft next year.

     

    Cameron doesn't seem good enough to put up with the signability BS, or Scott Boras in general. Not as fast as his Dad apparently, so he probably isn't the plus defender.  Lacks HR power.

     

    I prefer Tate, then Jay.

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    There is an insider article on ESPN about how most GMs leave it up to the scouting director, and if they don't, then they have the wrong scouting director......is that not the case here? "Ryan has the final word"......

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    Cameron doesn't seem good enough to put up with the signability BS, or Scott Boras in general. Not as fast as his Dad apparently, so he probably isn't the plus defender.  Lacks HR power.

     

    I prefer Tate, then Jay.

    Boras/Cameron have had it floating out there they are looking for Buxton money $6M (#2 overall).  They can ask that all they want but truth is Cameron is not a hands down top 2 talent, he's arguably in the talks for top 5 talent.  His wheels aren't like his dad's and there are questions of his swing

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    Boras/Cameron have had it floating out there they are looking for Buxton money $6M (#2 overall).  They can ask that all they want but truth is Cameron is not a hands down top 2 talent, he's arguably in the talks for top 5 talent.  His wheels aren't like his dad's and there are questions of his swing

     

    I doubt he goes to college.  He will get over slot money wherever he is drafted, but he isn't getting #2 money because he isn't a #2.

     

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    There is an insider article on ESPN about how most GMs leave it up to the scouting director, and if they don't, then they have the wrong scouting director......is that not the case here? "Ryan has the final word"......

    DJ was talking in terms of the war room, and if there are differing opinions, Ryan has the final say.  Let us not forget, Terry Ryan is in the Pro Scouting HoF.

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    I doubt he goes to college.  He will get over slot money wherever he is drafted, but he isn't getting #2 money because he isn't a #2.

    He'll likely push signing back to the last day possible, and some team will end up giving him 4M or so.  But you're right highly doubt he goes to college with that much money on the table and very little place to move up.  He'd really have to bet on himself to improve his draft stock

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    He'll likely push signing back to the last day possible, and some team will end up giving him 4M or so.  But you're right highly doubt he goes to college with that much money on the table and very little place to move up.  He'd really have to bet on himself to improve his draft stock

     

    Yeah.  He had 14 HR his last two years of high school.  Not much power for a 5-tool guy that thinks he is a top two player.  

     

    For context, Joe Mauer had 15 his senior season.

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    Yeah.  He had 14 HR his last two years of high school.  Not much power for a 5-tool guy that thinks he is a top two player.  

     

    For context, Joe Mauer had 15 his senior season.

    I wouldn't put much stock in HS hrs, alot of that depends on the competition and how they pitch him.  On the showcase circuit (he took most of last year off, but was everywhere his SO/JR HS year), he showed plus power at times enough to impressive the scouts to see him growing into it.

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    There is an insider article on ESPN about how most GMs leave it up to the scouting director, and if they don't, then they have the wrong scouting director......is that not the case here? "Ryan has the final word"......

    Mike, who exactly is saying this? Do you really believe King Theo, Brad Pitt etc., don't make the final decisions?

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    Mike, who exactly is saying this? Do you really believe King Theo, Brad Pitt etc., don't make the final decisions?

     

    Of course they have final say on decisions, but they likely aren't going to go against what the scouting director recommends. If they did, then they would have the wrong scouting director.

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    Yeah, I think the final decision that TR, theo, etc. are making is something along the lines of 'yeah, I'll go overslot for him' or 'no I won't'.  Not much else.  The GM might dictate a lower slot strategy to get high upside guys, but I'd imagine that even that is done with input from the scouting guys.

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