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  • Minnesota Twins and Pitcher Matt Shoemaker Agree To Deal


    John  Bonnes

    The Minnesota Twins have come to an agreement with starting pitcher Matt Shoemaker on a one-year deal, according to Jeff Passan. Shoemaker will likely compete for the fifth spot in the Twins rotation with Randy Dobnak, Devin Smeltzer and Lewis Thorpe.

    Image courtesy of © Adam Hagy-USA TODAY Sports

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    Shoemaker is a 34-year-old with a 3.86 ERA in 602 major-league innings. He's made 112 appearances in the big leagues, including 104 starts. It was known that the Twins had an offer out to him. His one-year deal includes $250K in incentives on top of a $2 million base, according to Passan.

    https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1361442210215063556

    Shoemaker is a good story, having gone unselected in the 2008 draft before signing with the Angels, working his way up through the minors, and finishing second in the AL Rookie of the Year voting in 2014 when he went 16-4 with a 3.04 ERA.

    The righty's career has since been marred by injury issues, and he's made just 18 total starts since 2017, but he continues to perform well when on the mound. Andrew Thares wrote last week about why Shoemaker is an intriguing fit for the Twins.

    For instance, in 2020, Shoemaker increased his fastball's average velocity 1.6% to match the highest velocity of his career. And that paid dividends:

    "Additionally, his fastball spike started to pay some dividends in the advanced metrics, particularly with his Four-seamer, where his expected wOBA dropped from a career .390 down to just .214 in 2020 on that pitch."

    Thares also looked at Shoemaker's pitch usage, focusing on those pitchers which gave up home runs, which was his biggest issue in last year. He wonders why they didn't feature the four-seam fastball more....

    "Instead, they continued to focus the majority of his fastball usage on his sinker (25.6% of pitches in 2020), which has been a flat-out awful pitch for the almost the entirety of Shoemaker’s career. This is where an opportunity lies for the Twins to take advantage of. If they simply cut the usage of Shoemaker’s awful sinker in favor of what appears to be a much improved four-seamer, it would instantly bring his game to a whole new level.

    Now that we know the details of the contract, Thares' conclusion reads even stronger:

    "You factor all of that in with the Twins ability to get the absolute most out of pitchers when other couldn’t (just look at Kenta Maeda last year as an example) and the Twins could have themselves a more than credible option to compete for a spot in the Twins starting rotation this spring, and he would likely be doing so on a cheap, low-risk deal for the Twins."

    Click over to read the whole analysis. When you're done, since Twins Daily has the best and most generous Twins community, share your thoughts and analysis in the comments!

    Twins Daily's Tom Froemming shared some highlights of Shoemaker's pitches and additional details of his career to date in the video below.

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    Great having competition for that #5 spot and this guy looks to be a solid option, if he can be healthy.

     

    When I read about this in this morning's Strib over coffee, assumed it meant that Thorpe would have to be traded to avoid losing when DFA's off roster. Then I learned from those commenting above that he has one more option. That's fantastic as it keeps him around for another year to put everything ugly from 2020 behind him. Still believe he has a ton of potential, just not as excited as I was a year ago.

     

    Looking more like one of Dobnak, Smeltzer or Thorpe will make the opening day roster. That puts the other two in St. Paul where they should get a lot of work and be ready if/when an injury replacement is needed.

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    Thorpe gets fourth option and I bet the team uses it.  He is one of the most disappointing prospects

    I don't know if "disappointing" is the right word. Last season, Thorpe lost 2mph from his fastball and I have no idea why. If that velocity returns, he could go right back to being a good prospect. If this is him going forward, that's a real bummer for the guy because he can't survive in MLB with 89mph stuff.

     

    Did anyone ever explain why his stuff was so dismal in 2020?

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    I am not expecting big things from him, but I do love guys like him in the organization.  They worked their butts off to get to the show.  They learned how to get it done when scouts were not drooling over them.  He just kept working and putting up numbers that team could not ignore.  They are the types of guys that will do what it takes to stick around and help the team.

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    While not dancing a jig...and I'm not Irish anyway...Im OK with this. We need depth and competition. Despite all the success of our staff in 2020, even in a short 60G season, we saw the need for depth.

    We know the recent injury history. The good? 25+ GS 2014-2016 and 14 in 2017, good career ERA, FIP and WHIP with a decent 8+K per 9.

    I agree with GNess that past injury history does in no way guarantee future injury. I also agree this is a lot like the Bailey signing last year. And that's NOT a bad thing. Bailey had a nice rebound 2019. If 2020 had been a full season, there is a very good chance Bailey would have contributed well over at least a half year. And every season there is someone who gets over the injury bug and suddenly shines like they used to and becomes a "steal" for the team who signed them. Why can't this be Shoemaker?

    Now, I would have preferred stretching payroll more to $8-10M for the HOPE of Paxton, the STEADINESS of Odorizzi or the UPSIDE of Walker and push Happ down. But 1-4 I really like the rotation we have. (Especially Happ getting out of Yankee stadium). There is still room for Dobnak, who I like, to make a difference. There is also room for Duran and Ober and potentially others over a full season.

    So again, I'm OK with this move.

    I really like this quote...especially"HOPE...STEADINESS...and UPSIDE". Well written Doc.

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    I'd much rather have somebody like Quintana or Paxton instead of Happ, as they signed at similar prices. Dobnak/Shoemaker are fine for the back end of the rotation. I would like better options than Thorpe/Smeltzer, but we are talking about the #8/9 spots.

    I'm probably inclined to agree; I'd roll the dice on Paxton's injury history because of his ceiling, and I think Quintana offers the same floor as Happ with a slightly higher ceiling to boot. Ideally any of those three would take that back end spot, rather than it being a revolving door. 

     

    Shoemaker has been injured and/or below average for 3+ seasons now. There's no real reason to trust Thorpe or Smeltzer, and I'm not high on Dobnak starting for any extended period of time either. I'm guessing you have Balazovic and Duran as the 6 & 7? If one or both of them could solidify a rotation spot it'd be the best case scenario, but that's a lot to ask of two guys who've thrown almost exclusively in A ball the last few years.  

     

    The 5 spot is shaky, and that puts pressure on the front of the rotation that is already dealing with Berrios' trouble finishing seasons and Pineda's penchant for DL stints. Are we counting on Maeda to replicate his '20 as well? In a vacuum Shoemaker as a depth piece or ST competition is fine, but similar to what I said in the Happ thread after his signing, the issue is that these guys won't be used as such.

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    I'm probably inclined to agree; I'd roll the dice on Paxton's injury history because of his ceiling, and I think Quintana offers the same floor as Happ with a slightly higher ceiling to boot. Ideally any of those three would take that back end spot, rather than it being a revolving door. 

     

    Shoemaker has been injured and/or below average for 3+ seasons now. There's no real reason to trust Thorpe or Smeltzer, and I'm not high on Dobnak starting for any extended period of time either. I'm guessing you have Balazovic and Duran as the 6 & 7? If one or both of them could solidify a rotation spot it'd be the best case scenario, but that's a lot to ask of two guys who've thrown almost exclusively in A ball the last few years.  

     

    The 5 spot is shaky, and that puts pressure on the front of the rotation that is already dealing with Berrios' trouble finishing seasons and Pineda's penchant for DL stints. Are we counting on Maeda to replicate his '20 as well? In a vacuum Shoemaker as a depth piece or ST competition is fine, but similar to what I said in the Happ thread after his signing, the issue is that these guys won't be used as such.

    Dobnak was pretty good for an extended period last year. I wouldn't mind him starting another 10-15 games if needed.

     

    Duran is definitely closer, but I don't think he will be an option for the first half of the year. I think Balazovic is still a ways out and won't be close to making the team in 2021.

     

    At this point, I think Griffin Jax and Charlie Barnes are the next guys up after Smeltzer/Thorpe. Not ideal...

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    Dudes been a boss when healthy. Solid #3 with 2 upside. He’s been around long enough to teach younger guys and knows how to pitch in Yankee Stadium. Underrated signing, let’s go.

     

    Umm that was 5 years ago.... #2 upside? What you smokin' Willis? 

     

    If it was a minor league deal I would be fine but a major league deal? With all the options out there he is the pick? Yikes! Front office has done a great job so they are due a mulligan... this is it.... 

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    I don’t understand the dislike of Dobnak as a No 5. I feel like he is a known commodity. And he started last season in our rotation. And he was our best starter for 5 turns thru the rotation. Again. I understand that this may be his ceiling but I will take it.

     

    If Shoemaker can give them 100 innings I will take that too. Baseball is back to a marathon in 2021. The depth on the pitching staff is so much better than pretty much any Twins team I’ve followed. I’m just sad it took so long for our front office to invest in that depth.

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