Minnesota Needs to Outbid for an Ace

9 hours ago, AceWrigley said:

No, the previous poster had said it's nearly impossible to trade for exceptional young arms and I was just using as reference that the Yankees in 2018 (3 years ago) acquired just that for a reserve outfielder to boot. I never said it was an overnight process, just that you can acquire and/ or develop a stable of possible aces to populate your starting rotation.

The percentage of payroll that a free agent ace will cost is too great a risk for the Twins. Heck, even the vaunted Yankees had to play a single-game playoff this year, started their $36 million-dollar-man, and still lost. No matter how good you are, the post season is still kind of a crap shoot. I think it was Roger who posted earlier that a rotation of #2's and #3's can carry you a long way both during the season and into the post season, and be affordable year over year. And yes, you better have a decent bullpen.

Now you are just framing this up to suit your needs.  For starters, your math is technically correct but we are not talking about calendar years.  Of course, you know this because Cave was here for 4 seasons.  2018/2019/2020/2021 so either you are trying to mislead us or you are just ignoring basic logic for convenience.  Also, the context of the conversation was clearly adding pitching next year.  Everyone here knows we could trade away our established players and rebuild.  Are you really telling us what you meant was they should take an approach targeting 4-5 seasons from now?   

I can see adding one better than Pineda type. At some point you have to see what the kids can do.  Some will make it, some will fail or fail the first time, but before 2023 we have know what we have. If the model totally fails, then we need a new front office.  I don't think it will

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Now you are just framing this up to suit your needs.  For starters, your math is technically correct but we are not talking about calendar years.  Of course, you know this because Cave was here for 4 seasons.  2018/2019/2020/2021 so either you are trying to mislead us or you are just ignoring basic logic for convenience.  Also, the context of the conversation was clearly adding pitching next year.  Everyone here knows we could trade away our established players and rebuild.  Are you really telling us what you meant was they should take an approach targeting 4-5 seasons from now?   

I'm advocating a position of cost-effective competitiveness. Fill the pipeline with high quality pitching prospects, help them develop confidence and figure out how to get hitters out and move them up. If you need a veteran pitcher to fill a hole or leadership needs, then sign him. I don't think a free agent signing or 2 is really going to rescue the Twins next year enough to put them in the post season.

1 hour ago, AceWrigley said:

I'm advocating a position of cost-effective competitiveness. Fill the pipeline with high quality pitching prospects, help them develop confidence and figure out how to get hitters out and move them up. If you need a veteran pitcher to fill a hole or leadership needs, then sign him. I don't think a free agent signing or 2 is really going to rescue the Twins next year enough to put them in the post season.

I agree and this framing of how to proceed is fair and honest.  I also think nearly everyone is solely focused on a plan to compete next year while ignoring the near impossibility of getting a top 3 capable of contending in one off-season.  At least it's nearly impossible without a combination of a lot more revenue and an extraordinary farm systems like the Padres tapped into last year.

13 hours ago, DocBauer said:

First of all, we just need to STOP talking about an ACE pitcher. When you have one, it's AWESOME. But it guarantees nothing. Witness the Yankees and the Dogers right now. 

And I would LOVE the Twins to have an ACE to front their rotation. But again, look at the teams in the WS right now.

Stop treating the Twins as a lousy franchise. There is a lot of talent in place and and more than a few prospects just ready to contribute or explode. 

The Twins had a lousy 2021. But Boston and SF and Atlanta were supposed to do nothing or next to nothing. As built right now, the Twins have 2 consecutive ALC flags before 2021. They have a nucleus of a good offensive team in place. They have some key components in the pen initially and a FO that is respected amongst agents. 

With money to spend, why wouldn't Stoman, Gray, Gausman, Rodon, not look at the Twins as an option?

The Twins can easily place any of these 4 in their payroll for 4 years to front their rotation as a 1 or 2 without blowing up payroll. And Pineda can easily slide in to the #3 slot initially. 

The problem is, who slots in to the #2 slot? The Twins probably need to spend $5-6M for ONE ARM for the BP.

Unless the FO pulls another rabbit out of the hat, they are going to have to make  a trade for a #2 SP.

OR, they will push the 2022 payroll to $145+ and let it fly and take a flier  and run with it.

I fully agree about theACE thing.  They are one of 26 guys, and really of like 40 guys when you look at how many guys play during a season.  As the game has evolved ACE is less of a thing.  Yes, if you can have a guy that can shut down a team two or three times in a series in the playoffs that is great.  However, hamstring the rest of your team for 1 pitcher will not get you over the hump.  There is at minimum 1,458 innings pitched each year.  The best ACE's these days will throw 200 innings, give or take.  That is less than 1/7 of the innings.  Even if they make every possible start at best the ACE can help win about 33 games.  It is unlikely even the best pitcher in the game will make that huge of a difference through a full season, maybe add 4 or 5 wins at best. 

In the playoffs they can make a much bigger difference, but as Doc pointed out, Yankees had Cole, Dodgers had Bueler, Scherzer, Urias all pitching in post season, but they lost.  Does a top pitcher give you a better chance, yes, but can you win without a certified Ace these days, yes as well.  It is about building a good solid team with depth. 

9 hours ago, old nurse said:

I do hope people read the comments section where they shred your analytic methods

I'm happy with the responses and comments on the article as I don't believe anything stated effectively took away from my position. So I'd be happy if they read the comments, too.

21 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

It’s also going to hurt financially. Because now we are looking at pitchers that are his caliber, maybe slightly better for double the price of his last arbitration year. Martin better be a stud to make it worthwhile.  

What gets me is that they merely have the opportunity to splurge on a pitcher who profiles similarly. It's far from a foregone conclusion that they'll acquire one through either FA or a trade.

6 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I agree and this framing of how to proceed is fair and honest.  I also think nearly everyone is solely focused on a plan to compete next year while ignoring the near impossibility of getting a top 3 capable of contending in one off-season.  At least it's nearly impossible without a combination of a lot more revenue and an extraordinary farm systems like the Padres tapped into last year.

This is a fair position and one that you and some others have advocated. This is fine, but can you or someone who also has a similar position please lay out their specific roster for the 2022 Twins to support your ideas. The exchange of plans is a basic premise behind these discussions. 

Naturally, once Falvey begins to move on players in November there will be additional thoughts and adjustments based on those actions. But for right now the posts concern how individuals are building a team. 

On 10/27/2021 at 1:41 PM, Wax off said:

Great point on Berrios and I think it's telling. Why would they not extend him, then turn around and give huge amount of money to a FA? If Berrios was on the market, he would be the type the Twins would or should go after, reliable and young. They could've just caved into his demands if they were looking spend big money on a pitcher.

Kinda off topic but I think the FO made a huge mistake not extending Buxton if his only hangup was about incentives. That's such a poor decision if true that on top of recent disastrous FA signings that could get them on the hot seat.

I am not sure that this is the takeaway regarding Berrios. It seems that Berrios was set on becoming a FA once he got this close to FA rather than signing an extension. It is likely that the Twins $$ extension proposals were not in line with current FA starting pitching market, but it also seems from Berrios’ comments that he wanted to be a young SP FA and max his return. So the Twins had to move him. I completely agree on Buxton. We don’t know the $$$ on incentives that led to the breakdown, but I am afraid of a similar outcome with Byron and Berrios. And then the blueprint in 2022 looks very different for me. 
 

Appreciate your comment and dialogue.

On 10/28/2021 at 5:27 PM, tony&rodney said:

This is a fair position and one that you and some others have advocated. This is fine, but can you or someone who also has a similar position please lay out their specific roster for the 2022 Twins to support your ideas. The exchange of plans is a basic premise behind these discussions. 

Naturally, once Falvey begins to move on players in November there will be additional thoughts and adjustments based on those actions. But for right now the posts concern how individuals are building a team. 

Obviously this changes significantly if they trade Buxton / Donaldson or Arraez.  If Donaldonson gets traded, bring up Miranda and spend the extra dollars on pitching.  They could also give Buxton a bump in 2022 as an incentive to extend but I doubt the immediacy of the pay raise is a big factor.  So, ideally they spend the money on pitching or a top SS.

IDK how good this estimate for Stroman and Taylor is so the numbers could change a bit.  It would also be nice if the Pohlad's approved $140M.

I am not real confident in Dobnak but Winder appeared ready last year and they have quite a few others that I would rather see in that 5th spot than another Shoemaker type.  The players with a X are depth and obviously there could be several others included.  At some point I could see a couple rookies sharing the 5th spot being "stacked"  That gives them the exposure we need for developing internally.

MLR, the roster looks decent. I'm not expecting as much money spent on relievers. Step 1, from most people, is settling or at least knowing someting, is Buxton. It still seems really possible to find a good pitcher via trade using some of the players whose roles are already taken (Arraez, Larnach, Rooker, a catcher). Hopefully teams do not wait until a CBA agreement.