Minnesota’s 5 Best Players Under 25

Yikes! Pretty thin in terms of accomplishment these days. Under 25 lists are always swayed to potential relative to accomplishment (in MLB terms), but this is fairly extreme. Kinda highlights that the Twins are not really a young team any more. Need the next wave to start impacting soon.

How about a under 21 list?

I’d go with Jeffers over Arraez.

 

The OBP numbers are comparable (.365 for Arraez, .356 for Jeffers). Jeffers hits for more power, which leads to higher OPS/OPS+, etc.

 

Jeffers is also much more valuable defensively.

 

Small sample size for Jeffers, but the defense and extra base power limit Arraez in my eyes.

Would be nice if a few of the big international signings take some big steps forward this year.

We do not make it on the national list.  Our team is no longer young and we do not bring up the players when they are really young so Acuna, Soto, Tatis, Luis Roberts, Eloy Jiminex, Bichette and others rank over our prospects because they have already shown themselves in the majors.  

 

Using that as the measuring stick Arraez and Jeffers have to be first and second. I wish we did let SP work into the rotation earlier, but that does not seem to be the plan.  I was hoping to find more under 25s in the BP but was surprised that Alcala and Stashak are both over the mark so we currently have only two under 25s and hopefully Kiriloff will make number 3.  

 

As I was looking at the stats I was surprised that the Twins are as old as their numbers say - the rotation now has 26 year old Berrios and next youngest is 32 year old Pineda and Happ is 38.  In the BP Alcala 25 1/2 is youngest and Thielbar at 34 is oldest.  In the IF Jeffers is youngest and Donalson is 34.  In the OF if Kiriloff starts he is the youngest at 23, Buxton is 27, Kepler 28.  

Interesting, Cody, thanks.

 

And count me among those who appreciate your having Arraez this high on your ranking. Seems so many don't appreciate what he brings to the game. Maybe he is more of a 1960's player than during today's advanced metrics age. Those of us who enjoyed baseball back then do appreciate him.

 

When so many of us here and elsewhere were agitated that the front office didn't do enough this winter to bring in more/better starters, Falvey seemed to indicate he was satisfied with what they had in their system. Could pitchers like Duran be part of the reason he felt that way?

Yeah, I'd take Lewis off this list, simply because there's no chance for him to make the bigs this season. 

 

Meanwhile, wouldn't it be great if Duhran, Kirilloff, Balazovic and Larnach all made the team this year? A couple strong young pitchers and a pair of good hitters. 

Arraez has a career OPS of .819 to Jeffers .791. OPS+ goes to Arraez 121 to 118. That's with more than 400 extra PAs to establish a more consistent baseline. No argument that Jeffers will hit more HR, but the narrative that Arraez is a slap singles hitter and brings a low OPS is incorrect. He will likely never be a huge HR threat or anything, but his 162 game pace for doubles is 38 (league leaders are typically low to mid 40s for the season). That is a more than respectable number while hitting .320+ and walking more than he strikes out.

 

I don't know that I'd bet Arraez ends with a better career OPS than Jeffers, but I think it'll be pretty similar and as the robo-umps are introduced to the game Jeffers loses a lot of defensive value as pitch framing is no longer a thing. No problem with anyone preferring Jeffers over Arraez, but I think you undersell Arraez a little by suggesting its a foregone conclusion that Jeffers will beat him in OPS/OPS+.

You’re right, I was only comparing last year when both were in the majors. Probably more appropriate to compare career numbers. Also, Jeffers has an extremely small sample size. Though, to be fair, Arraez still hasn’t accumulated a full season of plate appearances either (he’s still under 500).

 

I don’t think Arraez will consistently hit over .330. I don’t think that’s a particularly hot take. Historically, even throughout his minor league career, he’s never had an OPS over .800 with an average under .330.

 

How much of his career major league OPS is propped up by the juiced ball? He hit 4 home runs that year, he hit none last year. We’re getting into opinions vs. stats here, but I don’t think we’ll see many years of Arraez OPSing bear what he did in 2019. We’ll never know what Jeffers’ power numbers look like with that ball.

 

My intention isn’t to undersell Arraez. He’s a very good and useful player (though think many overvalue Arraez significantly because of batting average, which I think most will agree is an antiquated way of analyzing a players value). But, being so one dimensional hurts his value. Hitting for average in the MLB now is like being a great running back in the NFL. The game has shifted to being built around power.

 

I could also say that assuming robo umps are going to negate Jeffers top-notch defense undersells him. Facts are, right now, Jeffers offers a defensive dimension that will be around for the immediate future that Arraez never will. I think Arraez’s defense pulls down his value, whereas, at worst case scenario, Jeffers’ defense is neutral - currently it significantly increases his value.

 

You make good points, it’s a good debate, it’s very close. I would concede that I could be wrong very easily. There’s no question that both are good players. But, if I were building a team from scratch and got the choice of either one, I’d take Jeffers.

Interesting discussion about Arraez. Many believe he will not continue putting up the numbers he has throughout his career. I ask, why not?

 

Just went back and looked at three guys who in some way were similar. Comparing Luis to the three indicated he put up similar or maybe even a bit better numbers during his first two years. The three were Rod Carew, Tony Gwynn and Pete Rose. 

 

Were people saying similar things about them when they had been in the league a couple years? Granted the world was different then and there wasn't an internet, so probably not. Yet, none of us know what the future holds for Arraez. I ask, why can't he be the next Rose, Carew or Gwynn?

I believe he is the next Gwynn, Carew. I just think so many folks are down on batting average to were if a player hits .320 consistently, they don't understand that metric. Therefore many don't see the advantage of a higher average because it does not involve any advanced metrics.

 

Interesting discussion about Arraez. Many believe he will not continue putting up the numbers he has throughout his career. I ask, why not?

 

Just went back and looked at three guys who in some way were similar. Comparing Luis to the three indicated he put up similar or maybe even a bit better numbers during his first two years. The three were Rod Carew, Tony Gwynn and Pete Rose.

 

Were people saying similar things about them when they had been in the league a couple years? Granted the world was different then and there wasn't an internet, so probably not. Yet, none of us know what the future holds for Arraez. I ask, why can't he be the next Rose, Carew or Gwynn?

I mean, it’s not likely simply because even among those that start strong and show the potential (as Arraez has), only about one in a hundred are going to end up developing near the level Carew/Gwynn achieved. Could happen of course. I think Arraez is more limited with his lack of high end speed. Also, with his swing, it’s hard to see him ever getting to 10-15 HR in a season. Still, I have no problem with where Arraez is on this list. I think his AVE/OBP could be sustainably high enough to be valuable...and it’s arguable that it’s more valuable to this club than is Jeffers’ SLG, just based on scarcity.

Nice write up.

 

But I want to see the list of the best Twins players over 40.

Well I think I’d go with:

 

7. Phil Niekro

6. Nelson Cruz

5. Bartolo Colon

4. Dave Winfield

3. Jim Thome

2. Paul Molitor

1. Steve Carlton

Ahem. Joe Niekro