MIN 2, BOS 1: Gibby the Great

Not a chance he takes that. If he keeps it up then this is the only shot at a good FA deal he'll ever get, so I doubt he settles for a team-friendly contract. Top free agents never get team options anyways, especially on short deals. He'll get 3-4 years guaranteed, easily. Too bad for him he missed out on the really big FA deals fromi 5+ years ago, so I doubt he gets more than that.

 

Do you really feel sorry for someone who "only" gets offered $40 to $50 million dollars for just three years of playing a game?

Sure am glad that Gibby went eight innings because the designated snooze inducer Lance Lynn starts tonight and we will need the full bullpen after he throws 90 pitches in the first two innings.

I had a hunch this spring Gibson was going to have a solid year, and he has. 

 

After reading an Athletic article glowing about Rosario.....and his base running....I had doubts.

 

but, man, of the qualified hitters on FG's leaderboard, he is third overall on their baserunning rankings.....

 

huh. Kind of the "halo" effect in reverse, where it is so easy to remember the bad plays, I guess.

 

Good on him. 

 

Actually, other than 2017, he's been VERY GOOD on the basepaths.

 

I was thinking about this - if a player is aggressive on the basepaths, it probably makes sense that the aggression will occasionally backfire even if overall the impact is positive (e.g., if you try for the extra base every time your chance of making it is 90%, that's worth the risk but does result in getting thrown out sometimes).

the header (gibby the great) reminds me of the old leonard cohen story: it was 1984, leonard's career was in a lull and cbs wouldn't give u.s. release to his "various positions" album (the one with "hallelujah" and "dance me to the end of love"). so leonard went to the office of walter yetnikoff, the head of cbs records, to find out why. "we know you're great, leonard," yetnikoff said. "we just don't know if you're any good."

 

I’d rather have 1.4 years of Gibson. Easily.

I think the only reason Gibson is traded, short of a AJ Pierzynksi type of haul, is the FO doesn't believe the Twins will compete next year.

Just listened to the Gibson interview and it was rather humorous, Gibson says he asked Molitor for one base runner and he'd go out again.

 

What a crazy game.

 

the header (gibby the great) reminds me of the old leonard cohen story: it was 1984, leonard's career was in a lull and cbs wouldn't give u.s. release to his "various positions" album (the one with "hallelujah" and "dance me to the end of love"). so leonard went to the office of walter yetnikoff, the head of cbs records, to find out why. "we know you're great, leonard," yetnikoff said. "we just don't know if you're any good."

Kudos for the random Cohen story.  What a songwriter.  Every time someone shares yet another version of Hallelujah, I have to make sure they know who wrote and recorded that song...and also query if they've actually listened to any of the lyrics besides the title word.

 

Yup. I have watched him his whole Twins' career, of course. I have always liked him, and was disheartened by his struggles. Jake Arrieta didn't look that good for the first 4 years. Then he took off, at 28 years old, and Baltimore had missed out, after he was cultured in their system. Sure, there is a list of pitchers that failed, and never got better, and it never clicked, and I am not saying he is a Jake Arrieta. But I like home grown players, and I have always had faith that he would get there. And now he has. To say, when Arrieta went 10-5 with a 2.53 ERA in 156.2 innings in 2014, "You watched him pitch the last few years right? There's plenty of reason to doubt..." would have been a valid way to look at it, granted. He was way worse than Gibson's worst. But it happens. Players do get better, and at different ages. Justin Turner is another example, albeit not a pitcher. I like betting on a player that has come of age at the MLB level, much more than a prospect.

 

Gibson lost a good year, and more, really, as one comes back from TJ, so his age could be considered a comparable and a year less (Arietta has had no TJ), and being in your 31st year does not make one 31, and he is, by most, still considered to be 30, and won't be 31 until October 23rd, and next year will be his 31 year old season. (One poster has even called him 32 on this thread, and someone that the turnaround started in September, and not July! No need to not be accurate). But that is all somewhat meaningless, really. I hope he is a life long Twin, and we get the best he will and has become. I feel prospects are a much worse bet, than Gibson being a star pitcher for the next several years. 

We all root for guys that are drafted by the Twins. There's more invested from a fan perspective, and players are tracked through the minors. There's always hype surrounding high draft picks, and with that comes hope that they'll deliver on that promise. I get all of that, but I think it's tainting the view some have of Gibson, and IMO it's certainly a driving force for this call to extend him right now. If Gibson wasn't a product of the minor league system, and the Twins had traded for him last offseason, how hard would anybody be pushing for an extension?

 

This is splitting hairs here but Gibson's ERA was higher exiting last July than it was upon entry. He turned in a few duds through mid August too. He didn't really start pitching well until late August, so labeling it as one good month of 17' isn't all that inaccurate. 

 

You're right, guys figure it out at different times. Late development happens: Arrieta, Turner, Dickey, you can throw Bautista on that list, and I'm sure there are more if we spend 5 mins digging, but those guys are the exception that prove the rule. For every Jake Arrieta how many guys pop up for a brief period then fizzle back to previous production levels? Can this version of Gibson be who he is for the next few seasons? Sure, but is that a gamble I want to take by extending him right now? Not a chance. If some club feels he's worth the risk and makes a good offer then the Twins should happily make that deal. If not then they have Gibson for 19' and they can use some of that $$ they'll hoard this offseason to bring him back as a FA. 

 

 

 

If the hardcore fans are split on that move, just think what the reaction would be like from the casual fans. I'm pretty confident this organization will never do anything that controversial. 

So expect aiming for mediocrity to continue as the status quo?

 

The Twins will not get a return that will be better in 2019 than Gibson. I’m 99 percent confident in that. I want the Twins to do everything in their power to compete not later than 2019.

So I don’t care if some team offers a top prospect. That guy will be in A ball, or lower, and I’m not interested.

I'm with you.  I think this team is better in 2019 with Gibson than with whomever they get in a trade (which is likely a minor league prospect)

 

 

 

I think it's inaccurate and misleading.

 

Over the past 365 days, Gibson has thrown 192 innings, 185 K's, a 3.46 ERA, and a 1.227 WHIP.

 

He might fall back, but he's been legitimately, consistently good over the past year. Every pitcher throws a dud once in a while.

I'm not ragging on how he's pitched this season.

 

I'm not sure why we need to lump in a number of poor starts through July and August with his September starts & this season. His ERA entering his August 22nd start last season was essentially the same as when he took the mound July 4th. That isn't inaccurate and I'm not sure what about it is misleading. He wasn't pitching at the level he is now during that stretch. It doesn't take anything away from what he's doing now to recognize that. 

 

I don't think anyone disagree with the fact they'll be better in 19 with Gibson than a minor league player.....I think some disagree they'll be competitive next year....I'm firmly on the fence, since I don't know their plans.

I think they are competitive next year.  Almost everything that could have gone wrong this year has gone wrong, with very little unexpected success stories happening. . . . and they still are "only" 7 games out at the deadline.

 

On July 27, 2019 add 10 wins to where they are today and you have a 58-43 team.  It sounds like a lot, but I think that is something they can do.  They are better than their record and have played awful over stretches. 

'

As you know, I've been arguing to pick a path.....

 

either add MLB talent, or add more high ceiling minor league players....

 

But don't ride the middle.

 

So, sure, I'm happy to trade for Realmuto or a legit OF/DH/1B type.....but if they don't bring in outside talent, they are not, imo, good enough to compete with NYY, BOS, Houston, a fully healthy LAA, and probably not CLE either.

 

So, pick a path. 

 

And, yes, you kind of have to pick it now......because keeping Gibson is picking that path (somewhat....as his value will be less in the off season).

 

So, great, I agree, if you are going to compete, then trade for some players now or in the off season.

 

But, pick a path.

This. A path. There is an old Cajun joke about a guy who gets stuck in a tree at night with a bobcat. He wants his buddy to shoot, but his buddy can't tell what he would hit in the dark. The guy in the tree says at this point I don't care, just shoot. . That's the Twins today, do something. I don't care if it's wrong, just do something. I want it to be right, but not doing anything guarantees nothing good can happen. We are stuck in the middle. I am sick of the Bobby Wilsons, LaMares, Motters, and all the other waiver wire pickups. We may need t shirts! PICK A PATH.

Normally, I don't pay much attention to --- or at least give much importance to it --- a pitcher's won-loss record, but I was shocked to notice that this was only win number 5 for Kyle Gibson this year. As good as he's pitched, that's pretty darn surprising.