MIN 2, BOS 1: Gibby the Great

According to @baseball_ref Kyle Gibson is the first #MNTwins pitcher to throw at least 120 pitches in a game since Nick Blackburn on May 24, 2011. Blackburn threw 127 in a complete game win that day against Seattle.

Gardy loved to keep Blackburn in for 100+ pitch games. It didn't end well.

Because the trade could make the team better? He's the best trade chip they have?

Actually wouldn't the best trade chip probably be Jose Berrios, probably followed by Royce Lewis?? I mean they could get a load of stuff for those guys?

Help me out here, assuming Gibson has finally broken the code, why in the world would we want to trade him?

Sell high I would assume.    Not that I'm advocating for it, but it's probably the thought process.

Amazes me that this thread, after winning 4 straight from Jays and Red Sox, quickly evolves into whether or not the Twins should trade Gibson or whomever. Right! Trade a pitcher who you have stayed with all these years, who has always had good "stuff" and is just now finding himself at age 30.

Just go back out there tonight and try to win another game. Even splitting the series at Boston is fine; anything better is great. Then guess who comes to Target. Forget trades and just play ball. Too many vicarious GMs on this board.

Personally I've sat through too many classic Gibby starts to not want to enjoy the fruit of his development.  I have to think the Twins brass think the same way - good developed pitching is such a premium.

1. Stop playing Bobby Wilson over Mitch Garver.

2. I'm not trading Kyle Gibson right now unless there is a top 50 prospect and another top 100 prospect included. Twins need him and there aren't a lot of available SP right now

I think you just can't say that Gibson "should" be dealt, or "can't" be dealt. Everything should be in the table, if for no other reason it helps set a benchmark for other deals. I would trade Gibson for a young MLB ready catcher if the opportunity presented itself. It's an orginisational black hole. But in saying that the thought lingers that if Castro comes back, and with a knee injury that's an if, and Molitor remains in place, any young catcher is only going to get day games after night games. So maybe keeping Wilson is not such a bad idea after all?

The danger in this is always selling, and I don't think the team is in the place to do that at the moment.

 

The problem with this is that in Gibson's case, I doubt the return is much worse next year at this time if he keeps on doing it. His track record doesn't work in our favor in this case. Another year of similar results could increase the return, as he would be without question one of the most coveted pitchers on the market if we do bad in 2019 again.

Total agreement.     Like I said, I don't think they should trade him.     Nor do I think they will. 

But I'm also in the camp (probably alone) to wait and sell anybody until after the non-waiver deadline.     There is too many games left with Cleveland in August.     I need to stop letting hope creep in.

Better when? If they are certain the trade makes them a better team in 2019, I am all in. If not, I would keep Gibson. Too much can happen to prospects whose prime is 4-5 years away.

This. Yes, we could probably add overall value to the franchise by trading him but improving our position for the postseason for the next two seasons should be the goal. It's doubtful that we could accomplish that goal by trading Gibson because any team wanting him has the same goal, and they will want to keep players who are at that stage of development.

HA! This is great! And the hyperdrive never works until that exact moment they need it to kick in.

So....August?

If Gibson pitches this well again next year he will be gone in 2020 anyway.  Boston, LA or NY will out bid us in FA in years or dollars or both.  So if the return is decent then trading as painful as it might be for 2019 might be the only way to get a good return on our investment in Gibson.  

We always complain on this board that we never sell high.  This is why.  Once someone does well we never want to trade them anyway.   If he gets injured or doesn't perform well next year I hope I don't hear from the people who wanted to keep him about how the Twins never sell high.

I agree that Gibson gives us the best chance in 2019 and we could have the best Twins rotation in a long, long time, but Sano and Buxton have to come back and be good players to make the whole thing work and they need a really good off-season to fill holes.

I guess it comes down to if you want to play for 2019 or build a stronger future.  If the return is strong I would trade him.  If not then you have to keep him.

Just change the last part to "whenever Fernando Rodney is pitching with a one run lead."

Speaking of one-runs--did you know the Twins lead the majors in blown saves with 20?  Also, if the last series was a home series, their record in one-run games would have improved.  Instead, since they were able to pile on all six runs, the Pythagorean record improved. Anyhoo... 

In 2008, Blackburn only reached 100 pitches 5 out of 33 starts, none more than 108. Only one looks particularly taxing -- 102 pitches for 4.2 innings against the Yankees.

 

In 2009, it was 12 out of 33, but it's not like he was laboring in them -- he never topped 111 pitches that year, he threw at least 6 innings in all of his 100 pitch starts, and he threw at least 7 innings in 8 of those 12 too. (Twice he went the distance with 107 and 109 pitches.) Spread out as well -- no more than 2 in any single month.

 

2010 was when Blackburn first started struggling -- 5.42 ERA -- but he was hardly overworked. 6 starts out of 26 with 100+ pitches, none greater than 110, and all of those pitching into at least the 7th inning.

 

2011, the 127 pitch complete game was the outlier. No others greater than 110. 9 out of 26 starts at 100+. He did have 4 of them in May, but none appeared too taxing (pitching into the 7th twice, the 8th once, and the complete game).

 

Very difficult to pin his downfall on overuse.

You did half the work. Now compare that workload to some other pitchers. And be fair -- don't cherry pick hall of famers or Cy Young candidates.

Would you take that if you were Gibson?

Not a chance he takes that. If he keeps it up then this is the only shot at a good FA deal he'll ever get, so I doubt he settles for a team-friendly contract. Top free agents never get team options anyways, especially on short deals. He'll get 3-4 years guaranteed, easily. Too bad for him he missed out on the really big FA deals from 5+ years ago, so I doubt he gets more than that.

Need to market a new health supplement called FRE. Some type of calming, blood pressure lowering, mellowing pills. Take 2 after the 8th and sit back for the ride.

Maybe having Rodney as your closer prepares you more for pressure-filled games.

Tom, you coined a winner, "Gibby The Great". May it stick.

I live in New England. I love when the Twins beat the Sox (well, white or red really).

Go Twins.

Those are all fair points and why I am not advocating "sell Gibson at all costs for the best return" - there are guys on this team I would say that about, but not him.

 

I would shop Gibson hard, but I'm content to keep him.  What I'm not content with is the mentality that we have to keep him.  The flexibility you talk about, coupled with young starters we have that should be in the rotation next year, are why I'm willing to explore this aggressively.

I'm not sure what 'shopping him hard' really means because no other clubs are going to change their interest in Gibson due to lobbying from Falvey and Levine. The other clubs either want Gibson or they don't, and they are either willing to offer significant value or they aren't. 

If someone wants Gibson enough to make a tempting offer, the Twins are going to get the message. Undoubtedly they've been hearing from other clubs for a while now. He's pitching at a different level than most of the other options out there . . . but even rich teams are very reluctant to give up solid prospects.

Between the deals for Soria, Oh, and Happ, not a single prospect changed hands that would be top 30 in the Twins system, per Fangraph's rankings. Gibson is considerably more valuable than any of those three, of course, but top 30 is a pretty low bar.

FYI, this comes across as pretty rude. I did "half the work"? Did you do any?

 

% of starts at 100-119 pitches:

 

2008 AL 43%, Blackburn 15%

2009 AL 45%, Blackburn 36%

2010 AL 51%, Blackburn 23%

2011 AL 49%, Blackburn 31%

2012 AL 44%, Blackburn 16%

 

But you may have a bright future in politics.

Spycake, if you found this easily, I'd be interested in knowing what percentage of starts throughout the league were in this range the past few years. The curiosity has nothing to do with Blackburn -- just wondering if the number has dropped as precipitously as it seems, or if it just seems that way because short starts are getting more attention.