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  • Miguel Sano And Negativity Bias


    Nick Nelson

    We've been down this road before. Miguel Sano comes under siege from a local columnist who finds specious reasoning to grind an ax over the young slugger's purported lack of commitment. Patrick Reusse did it last spring, and a week ago Jim Souhan published a similarly toned piece.

    Are these scribes calling Sano lazy? They'll say no, but the columns undoubtedly lead the reader in that direction. Which is ironic, since what's truly lazy is the story line these veteran newspapermen keep peddling.

    Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas, USA Today

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    Sano is an easy target for errant criticism, because he is big, and he strikes out a ton. You could argue both are inhibiting factors, but they are part of who he is. Every player has his inhibiting factors, and in this case, they also contribute to what makes Sano great.

    And let's make no mistake about it: he is great. Already, at age 24, and he's likely on his way to becoming even better. There is much to celebrate about where Sano is and where he's going. He surpassed 70 career home runs when he went deep twice against Arizona last weekend, just before going on the disabled list. He reached that mark quicker than anyone in franchise history, by a longshot:

    https://twitter.com/AaronGleeman/status/898736488749256705

    Sano's historic power is enabled by his size and strength, his ferocious cuts – the very same things criticized by anyone who's looking for a grievance to air.

    "He's getting too big." Well, that's who he is, a large man. "He strikes out too much." Well, that's what he is, a hard swinger prone to strikeouts as well as tape-measure shots.

    It is well established in psychology that humans have an implicit negativity bias; we are more apt to remember something bad than good, an evolutionary trait. It is, as the linked article states, "the same reason political smear campaigns outpull positive ones."

    By hounding upon Sano's ostensible weight control issues, these columnists are guilty of succumbing to negativity bias, while also planting it in the minds of their readers. The Strib platform entails a certain level of responsibility, and there are consequences for actively working to shape perceptions like this.

    I much prefer the way new Twins GM Thad Levine is openly embracing the overwhelming positives of the Miguel Sano experience. Here's how he talked about his inherited All-Star at the Baseball Prospectus Target Field event a few weeks ago:

    I will tell you, he wants to be great. This is a guy who has an amazing amount of energy, loves the game of baseball, is smiling from ear to ear. Leaders come in different shapes and forms, but I'll tell you, from an energy standpoint, this guy's love of the game is palpable and will get us through a 162-game season. That, and he also can hit the ball a very, very long way.

    The key to that statement: "Leaders come in different shapes and forms." Sano's physical shape and form do not define him, nor do they preclude him from being productive or healthy. I'm sure people made the same "dietary discipline" remarks about Prince Fielder but from age 24 through 29 he missed three total games and hit 200 home runs.

    Sano is, in Souhan's own words, "remarkably agile for a large man." He gets the job done at the hot corner and moves well enough around the base paths. He leads the Twins in OPS, and even during his slumps he's still a relatively solid performer, never a liability. His absence has certainly been felt since the DL move, with Eduardo Escobar representing a severe drop-off in the cleanup spot, and games like Thursday's 5-1 loss to Chicago feeling strongly impacted by his non-presence.

    But Sano had played in 111 of the team's 121 games before going on the shelf due to a foul ball in the shin. He has taken approximately 35 fastballs to the left wrist, and kept on chugging along.

    To write these kinds of columns for a Minnesota sports audience almost feels treacherous, and hugely ill-advised when you think about the big picture. We should all collectively be trying to woo this generational hitting talent into sticking around. One day in the not-too-distant future, Sano will be approaching free agency, and will more than likely have suitors lining up for his services.

    If he chooses to go elsewhere, Souhan and Reusse will surely be lamenting another star player who left the small market via free agency to chase the spotlight and the big dollars.

    Maybe they could've tried harder to appreciate what they had, while they had it.

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    It can. I just haven't seen any remote evidence of it being the case here. There was none presented in the column. The injury was sloppily thrown in as some way to build timely relevance for his point, at least as I read it. 

     

    It's a well established fact that conditioning and weight impact injury recovery. Could he have included more medical evidence to support this? Sure. But it's hardly a new idea. 

     

    And as a reminder, since this column has come out, it's been reported that Sano will likely take longer to come off the DL and could be kept from playing third base as a result:

     

    http://www.twincities.com/2017/08/25/miguel-sano-not-much-closer-to-returning-to-twins-lineup/

     

    Now, maybe the slow recovery has nothing to do with weight. But given that the team fed a local columnist concern about Sano's weight and now he's recovering slowly enough that he'll take longer to come off the disabled list, boy it sure looks like that might be an issue here. 

     

    And again, it's potentially keeping the team's biggest weapon from the lineup during a playoff push. If that's not a reason for concern, and a potential column, I don't know what is.

     

    I'm not saying all this because I loved the column -- frankly, the comment about "bags of fast food" was annoying; come on, Jim, these are 20-something dudes here -- but athlete conditioning in the modern era is a legitimate topic of discussion.

     

    And on this site, Sano's weight is a FREQUENT topic. Just read comments about how Sano should be DH in a couple of years ... 

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    This is not the first time that Souhan has been negative towards a Twins' player.  Matter of fact, he has been the mouthpiece of the TR&Co FO as far as "outing" players from Slowey to Neshek etc.  Plenty of the TR&Co FO still in place.  I would not doubt that at least one of them has been Souhan's source, since day 1, but I hope that this person is no longer with the Twins after the season is over...

     

    This may be true, but I have also heard some pushback on the narrative that the Twins FO, or at least anyone high up, was responsible for pushing that information to Souhan. It may be more of Souhan just exaggerating or making stuff up than we think.

     

    The example cited was Garza, so might not apply to Slowey or Neshek.

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    This may be true, but I have also heard some pushback on the narrative that the Twins FO, or at least anyone high up, was responsible for pushing that information to Souhan. It may be more of Souhan just exaggerating or making stuff up than we think.

     

    The example cited was Garza, so might not apply to Slowey or Neshek.

     

    Yep. He's done that before in the past just to get people riled up. I don't know why people are taking his word now just because he wrote "people inside the Twins' organization" in an opinion article. 

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    Yep. He's done that before in the past just to get people riled up. I don't know why people are taking his word now just because he wrote "people inside the Twins' organization" in an opinion article. 

     

    If he were to lie he would lose access to the team, no doubt.

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    I don't get why this is being framed as being some sort of egregious breach of confidence or 'leak' of classified information.    Sano's a big rig-  that shouldn't be a revelation of any sort to anyone with sight.   

     

     

     

     

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    I don't get why this is being framed as being some sort of egregious breach of confidence or 'leak' of classified information.    Sano's a big rig-  that shouldn't be a revelation of any sort to anyone with sight.   

     

    Right. This is a "shooting fish in the barrel" article. This stuff will be written as long as Sano is in MN.

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    I'm sure the Twins are concerned about all their players and whatever issues are specific to them, including Sano and his weight. And they should be, I'd question it if they weren't. And I have no problem with that. My issue with some of the concern expressed by others are the assumptions that seem to go along with it. Some of these assumptions seem to imply a willfull and knowing disregard by Sano about this concern. That is the bias. I've read hints and accusations that given his size he then must have a poor work ethic, no discipline, he's lazy, or he doesn't care or doesn't try. All things damaging to and demeaning Sano's character as a player. That, to me, is the problem with the piece that Souhan wrote, and the problem with some of the responses. It doesn't matter that he couched some of this in obvious compliments, either... Gee, that's a stunning outfit you're wearing, but it would look so much better if you weren't so fat.

    "Sano possesses hall of fame talent, and he works at the game. He has improved dramatically at third base and he takes intelligent at bats." Jim Souhan.

     

    Who is implying he's lazy or doesn't care? Who's bias is showing through in your interpretation...

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    Yep. He's done that before in the past just to get people riled up. I don't know why people are taking his word now just because he wrote "people inside the Twins' organization" in an opinion article. 

     

    We take his word for it because the team's longest tenured current beat writer backed Souhan's article, and the fact that he got it from inside the clubhouse. 

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    I don't get why this is being framed as being some sort of egregious breach of confidence or 'leak' of classified information.    Sano's a big rig-  that shouldn't be a revelation of any sort to anyone with sight.   

     

    This.

     

    Numerous people on this site point out Sano's weight and insist he should be at first or DH. 

     

    Personally, I don't think he should be at first or DH. I think he should remain at third, where he's worked hard and has made significant improvements. But I ALSO believe it's perfectly fair to expect a team to push a young player to think about conditioning and weight to ensure he has the best chance at a long and healthy career.

     

    It's not saying he's lazy, or he has no work ethic. It's just saying that conditioning is a part of the game that players have to pay attention to. The Twins, and Jim Souhan, don't believe Sano is doing enough on that front.

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    That's fair. I find it hard to believe that losing a little weight would hamper him in a meaningful way, and would have benefits.

    The k rate is interesting to consider. If hr cuts it 5-10% he is an absolute monster. If it rises 5-10% more he will struggle to stay in the league. He is living a little dangerously. I personally think he will make the adjustments and bump it down a little. Remains to be seen if that costs him power.

    What like Jose Bautista rates? :)

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    As long as Sano can react to a negative article/statement made by Souhan the way Gibby has over his last few starts... Great!  

    Souhan is unreadable for me.  He's just a waste of time.  Maybe he thrives on the same bit as the Common Man does, but at least we all know that Common is just a clown. Souhan seems to take himself seriously and think that he is all-knowing.  Can't stand him, makes me wanna puke.  Go Twins. 

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    So we're certain that Sano isn't at a healthy weight?

     

    All I see so far is speculation that he isn't and somehow that is enough to uphold the article and support the claims about about his recovery time. 

     

    I don't think the gist of the column was necessarily to be in the current tense.  I read it as more of a cautionary tale of where Sano may be heading in the near future.

     

    "Sano is 24 and until this week he had not suffered any injuries related to his bulk, but even his strength and assorted other athletic gifts will not allow him to be the player he should be if he isn’t careful."

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    I see different things:  a blog that is almost a "fan club"--stopping short of asking for a credit card to buy votive candles and "inside access" and a dying media outlet desperate to maintain circulation in order to maximize advertising revenue.  At least the contrast of tone gives rise to some semblance of reality in "Twinsville".

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    Are these scribes calling Sano lazy? They'll say no, but the columns undoubtedly lead the reader in that direction. Which is ironic, since what's truly lazy is the story line these veteran newspapermen keep peddling.Sano is an easy target for errant criticism, because he is big, and he strikes out a ton. You could argue both are inhibiting factors, but they are part of who he is. Every player has his inhibiting factors, and in this case, they also contribute to what makes Sano great.

     

     

    Nick, we sometimes disagree, but you are right on with this. These "sportswriters" often never played the game. Sano is just starting to realize his immense talent. He needs to slim down though, but he is a star on the way up. These sports writers, not so much.

     

    But maybe some criticism will motivate him.

     

     

     

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    If Sano was to leave and go to a bigger city at the end of 6 years, this would look like pinpricks compared to how those fans react and sportswriters write.  Press here is Minnesota Nice compared to elsewhere, and Sano would have to get used to more hard core critisism elsewhere.  I do not know how the west coast writers are, but Chicago, New York, Boston and the like writers are vicious. 

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    First off, I'll preface this comment that I have a bias. Ruesse and Souhan are hack writers. If they have a strikeout rate, it's much higher than Sano when it comes to writing

     

    Lastly, find it funny and ironic. A lazy article written about a player's lazy tendencies..... hmmm... didn't hear this in May when Sano was on a tear. I know it's click bait but I feel cheered for wasting my time reading that garbage. Souhan has a reputation for intentionally preposterous articles. Sure, Sano could be slimmer and strikeout less in a perfect world but who is perfect. We have other issues as a team and I think picking on a young star when he is on the DL is a FedEx Friday move

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    I think the problem is that Sano is the best-hitting Twins third baseman since Killebrew, and also the worst-fielding Twins third baseman since Killebrew. There's also a reason men of a certain age will tell you Tony Olivia was the best Twins hitter of the 60s, which is a pretty hot sports taek.

     

    As long as the Twins understand Sano's value, the local press can say whatever.

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    If Sano was to leave and go to a bigger city at the end of 6 years, this would look like pinpricks compared to how those fans react and sportswriters write.  Press here is Minnesota Nice compared to elsewhere, and Sano would have to get used to more hard core critisism elsewhere.  I do not know how the west coast writers are, but Chicago, New York, Boston and the like writers are vicious. 

     

    Minnesota "nice" is the problem ;)

     

    Boston writers could have had a hayday with Ortiz's size, but they didn't.  They had one with Panda's.  Same with Sabathia in NYC.  When producing size did not matter.  When he stopped producing, size was an issue.

     

    Production is the most important part.  And as long as Sano produces, there should be no issue.  

     

    Remember "skinny" Delmon?  That was a farce on the field...  What if Sano loses thirty pounds and starts hitting like skinny Delmon?

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