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  • Miguel Sano: A Fading Superstar


    Cody Christie

    Miguel Sano is in his fifth big league season and he has over 1,600 big league plate appearances. He started his professional career already in the limelight because MLB’s investigation into his age. Heck, there was even a movie made about his signing. He looked like a slam dunk big league player, a future superstar.

    Now, he’s 26-years old and one must wonder if he will ever be able to become the superstar he seemed destined to become.

    Image courtesy of © David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

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    Age Questions

    Back in 2012, one of the first pieces I wrote for Twins Daily examined the questions surrounding Miguel Sano’s age. MLB completed an investigation into his age, but the results were inconclusive. Sano had to drop his asking price and the Twins were happy to sign the young shortstop for $3.15 million. His family lived in a small dirt floored home in the Dominican, so the influx in money had to be a shock to the system.

    In that original article, I wrote…

    “For players from the Dominican, there is plenty of pressure to find some way to lie about their age to escape the poverty they are subject to in their home country. According to Sports Illustrated on average, a 16-year old player brings in about $65,000 with their signing bonus. Add two years to their age and an 18-year old signs for an average of $20,000. That is a big difference in a country where the per capita income is only $8,900. A player who shows any sign of promise is going to try and ‘adjust’ their age to put their family in a better place for the future.”

    The age issue hasn’t been brought up in recent years and that’s probably a good thing for Twins Territory. His age certainly didn’t take away from his high expectations entering the minor leagues.

    High Expectations

    Baseball America had Sano ranked in their top-100 prospects for five consecutive seasons (2010-2014). He ranked as the number nine prospect in 2014 and peaked as the number six overall prospect in 2014. MLB.com had him as the 4th best prospect in 2014 while Baseball Prospectus had him just outside the top-10 (11th). Most of the baseball world expected him to turn into one of baseball’s best players.

    Sano made his Stateside debut in 2011 and he had a breakout year in Elizabethton. In 66 games, he collected 45 extra-base hits and had a .988 OPS. Out of Appalachian League players (minimum of 45 game), only Eddie Rosario had a higher OPS than Sano. He would head into the off-season as the team’s highest-ranked prospect.

    Over the next four seasons, Sano continued to pound minor league pitching. He combined for an .893 OPS in 2012, a .992 OPS in 2013, and a .918 OPS in 2015. The only thing that was able to slow him down was Tommy John surgery and that cost him the entire 2014 season.

    He made his big-league debut in 2015 and there was still potential for him to be a superstar.

    Big League Career

    During a strong rookie campaign, Sano burst onto the scene with 36 extra-base hits and a .916 OPS in 80 games. He finished third in the AL Rookie of the Year voting behind Houston’s Carlos Correa and Cleveland’s Francisco Lindor.

    In 2016, Sano ran into a little bit of a sophomore slump. He still his 25 home runs and 22 doubles, but his OPS dropped to .781 and he struck out 178 times in 116 games. He was elected to his first All-Star Game in 2017 following a tremendous first half (21 HR and a .906 OPS). He cooled off a little in the second half as he only managed 10 extra-base hits and a .742 OPS in 32 games.

    MLB had to investigate Sano multiple times in 2018 but this time it wasn’t about his age. He was accused of sexual assault by a Twins photographer. The Office of the Commission of Baseball concluded that there wasn’t enough evidence to warrant a suspension. Sano was also driving a car when it ran over a police officer in the Dominican Republic. In traffic court, the police found no intent on his part to hurt the officer.

    Some of these incidents might have impacted his performance last year. In 71 games, he hit .199/.281/.398 with 27 extra-base hits. Minnesota even sent him down to High-A to try to reset his career.

    Shifting Expectations

    Sano is certainly putting up strong numbers this season with a 1.009 OPS in his first 14 games. However, I don’t know if he should be seen in the same light as he was when he was signed as a 16-year old. At that time, he looked like he could be the cornerstone of a franchise, a player to be built around.

    Now, the perspective has changed. He seems like he could be a good player, but I don’t think he is a player the Twins will build around. Sano had the potential to be a superstar and he could still surprise in the years ahead. That being said, it’s more likely his superstar potential is slowly fading away.

    Do you think Sano can still be considered a superstar? Would you build future Twins rosters around him? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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    I think to be fair to Cody, the chances of Sano being a superstar have faded. A lot.

    Fair. But at the least a bad headline/theme, here. I would buy lowered expectations (which isn't unique to Sano)...but not a narrative where his career arc is fading. He's not at any point yet established super-stardom and he might never. But he might be extremely useful...and he's doing fine for now. We'll see.

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    Fair. But at the least a bad headline/theme, here. I would buy lowered expectations (which isn't unique to Sano)...but not a narrative where his career arc is fading. He's not at any point yet established super-stardom and he might never. But he might be extremely useful...and he's doing fine for now. We'll see.

     

    I don't think it's fair at all.  This is clickbait and TD is normally above that.

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    How was Miguel Sano ever a superstar? And how is this line anything but self-exposing baloney? "The age issue hasn’t been brought up in recent years and that’s probably a good thing for Twins Territory." Do you still think he's going to be deported as a terrorist?

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    I think his star is fading fast. Here are the reasons for my opion. He is solely a mistake pitch hitter. He can hit a 450 foot home run on a breaking pitch that doesnt break. If it breaks he swings through it and if it's a good breaking pitch he flails at it and misses it by a foot.

     

    He is not good defensively. Not sure why people say that on here. Look at last night... cost us the game and cost Perez an early exit. He does not look comfortable at third.

     

    He also makes tons of baserunning mistakes. So say he is healthy all season he will hit 40 Homer's and strike out 280 to 320 times.... so with so small a chance of contact hit and runs or moving the runner over is not an option.

     

    To me he should be platooned and used as a punch hitter with pitchers with no breaking pitches in their arsenal. Unless he gets better at pitch selection and learns to hit a breaking pitch or atleast make contact with them to foul them off.

     

    If someone offered a deal where it was mid level prospects and sano part of the deal for a good pitcher we would have for some years I'd be all for it.

     

    Could he figure it out somehow? Yes. Look at Buxton. But then again Sano upside is not even a third of Buxton's upside.

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    The days of platoon players are pretty much over in this era of 12-13 man pitching staffs. Even when rosters go to 26 next year, there are still only going to be 4 (occasionally 5) bench players.

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    Guys 1.000 ops with 60 or so at bats is nice but if you think he will have a 1.000 ops after 400 plate appearances I have a six figure wager for you!

     

    Hard hit percentage means how much when the majority of the time there is absolutely no contact made? Factor in all them swings and misses the % swing is probably on the bottom 10% of baseball. Until he learns to hit a good slider he is a incomplete player with gaping holes that can easily be exploited. Come playoff time sano comes up late in a game what happens? They bring in a pitcher with a nasty slider and he may as well close his eyes and swing as hard as he can.

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    La vikes fan take a look at buxtons batting average with runners in scoring position. Top 5 in all of baseball... 20 doubles, 3 triples, 7 Homer's and I think 34 rbi batting 9th. I thi k the only reason they dont move Buxton up to bat at the top of the order is they are affraid it will put too much stress on him and he will implode like previous years. I think Buxton is a completely different player now and he is ready. Not to mention last two games a 439 foot homer and 453 foot homer l. The longest two of his entire career.

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    Guys 1.000 ops with 60 or so at bats is nice but if you think he will have a 1.000 ops after 400 plate appearances I have a six figure wager for you!

     

    Hard hit percentage means how much when the majority of the time there is absolutely no contact made? Factor in all them swings and misses the % swing is probably on the bottom 10% of baseball. Until he learns to hit a good slider he is a incomplete player with gaping holes that can easily be exploited. Come playoff time sano comes up late in a game what happens? They bring in a pitcher with a nasty slider and he may as well close his eyes and swing as hard as he can.

    There is no such thing as a player who can hit a good slider. The good ones are unhittable. You hit the bad ones.

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    It’s a fair question, yet I’m an optimist. Sano has had to mature as a person. My impression is that he has done that.

     

    Nothing improves your performance like failing and get back at it again. Sano had a poor 2018 season accompanied by injuries. There is no one who has displayed more exuberance since rejoining the team than Sano. He is carrying an incredibly good attitude.

     

    If Miggy can carry a .250 batting average, continue to perform well at 3B, and hit his share of big flies, I’ll be pleased.

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    Perhaps it’s time to put down the torches and pitchforks and see if the author has any kind of reply to make.

    And then let's all pick them back up off the ground and go find that dude that bunted to break up a no hitter.

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    And then let's all pick them back up off the ground and go find that dude that bunted to break up a no hitter.

    I know this is venturing off-topic but I've come around to the point of view that this is OK if it's a close game because in that case the primary purpose of doing it is to try to give your team a chance of winning the game. Breaking up the no-hitter is just collateral damage.

    Edit: And BTW if it happens in the first 3 or 4 innings nobody would think twice about it.

    Edited by Nine of twelve
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    I think the eye test belies the numbers. He just looks baffled on so many pitches. 

     

    Every time he comes to the plate it's high hopes balanced against low expectations. 

     

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    I think the eye test belies the numbers. He just looks baffled on so many pitches.

     

    Every time he comes to the plate it's high hopes balanced against low expectations.

    Sounds like confirmation bias to me. Every major league hitter looks baffled by a pitch or two every game.

    One of my favorite things about baseball is that the numbers most often do tell the story, especially on the hitting side.

    There is no such thing as an empty 1.000 OPS.

    Nor is hitting mlb pitching so easy that one can just luck into those numbers, or only achieve them by only hitting mistakes.

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    I know this is venturing off-topic but I've come around to the point of view that this is OK if it's a close game because in that case the primary purpose of doing it is to try to give your team a chance of winning the game. Breaking up the no-hitter is just collateral damage.

    Edit: And BTW if it happens in the first 3 or 4 innings nobody would think twice about it.

    I reopened a thread on this.

     

    Our pitchforks and torches need not leave this thread. It earned them.

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    There is a premise that prospect rankings mean something more than the player has a Chance. Drew Henson sat near the top of these lists for a long time.  That someone thought superstar is on them, not Sano. It is hard to be a failure as a superstar when the player never achieved it.  Some players develop slower than others, see Nelson Cruz. 

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    Miguel Sano is a very good player. He's a very good hitter and a very good third baseman; today. I think he's probably going to get better. I think he'll probably have several all-star caliber seasons. One determining factor will be whether he can avoid injury or not. Another factor is whether he is motivated to be his best and maintains his optimal performing fitness. Maybe those two factors are connected. I don't feel very confident about him being succesful in either factor. I think avoidance of injury can be connected to both luck and maintainance of fitness. I think maintainance of fitness is connected to work ethic. I think work ethic is connect to character.

     

    I doubt his character. I doubt his work ethic. I doubt his ability/willingness to maintain fitness. I doubt the likelihood of his avoiding injury. I think his pure athletic ability could carry him through a lot, along with some good fortune.

     

    I was a huge Sano fan. Like most TD members, I followed his career from signing- probably on a daily basis through the minor leagues. I don't think I had ever been as excited for a prospect to arrive at the Twins, as I was for Sano. In my mind, he was a superstar before he arrived.

     

    What a player does on the field is obviously the biggest factor in their level of popularity and recognition, whether or not they reach star status or superstar status or whatever. But what (ASIDE: as I type this, Sano just hit a bomb to right center in whatever the Tigers' stadium is called now) a player does off the field also impacts their popularity and stardom. There's nothing Sano can do on the field that will erase, for me, the wrongness of what he was accused of. Even If there were anything he could do off the field to make up for it, he won't. If he did what he was accused of, he did it because he thought he would get away with it. And he did. The league, the team, and the fans let him off the hook.

     

    I began by saying that I think Sano is good and that I think he will get better. I think this because of his talent, and despite his repeatedly demonstrated poor character. But I think that a case can be made that because of his poor character, he will not get better. He will stay the same or get worse. In which case, a reasonable action would be to move him. Therefore, I don't think the premise of this article is as bad as most of the posters in the thread do.

     

    Otherwise, in order of preference, I suggest:

     

    Cut him and sign Mauer

    Cut him

    Trade him

    Mandate attendance of sexual violence awareness classes indefinitely

     

    That's just me though, and my opinion is pretty disconnected from his performance. (Though, his long term performance may be connected to his quality of character, which I estimate to be poor).

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    Miguel Sano is a very good player. He's a very good hitter and a very good third baseman; today. I think he's probably going to get better. I think he'll probably have several all-star caliber seasons. One determining factor will be whether he can avoid injury or not. Another factor is whether he is motivated to be his best and maintains his optimal performing fitness. Maybe those two factors are connected. I don't feel very confident about him being succesful in either factor. I think avoidance of injury can be connected to both luck and maintainance of fitness. I think maintainance of fitness is connected to work ethic. I think work ethic is connect to character. 

     

    I doubt his character. I doubt his work ethic. I doubt his ability/willingness to maintain fitness. I doubt the likelihood of his avoiding injury. I think his pure athletic ability could carry him through a lot, along with some good fortune. 

     

    I was a huge Sano fan. Like most TD members, I followed his career from signing- probably on a daily basis through the minor leagues. I don't think I had ever been as excited for a prospect to arrive at the Twins, as I was for Sano. In my mind, he was a superstar before he arrived.

     

    When the headlines of assault accusations appeared, I'd hoped it was some silly bar fight or weird confrontation over a misunderstanding, something easy to brush aside or write off. But they turned out to be credible accusations of sexual assault.

     

    I don't intend to review that case in this thread. People have made their own conclusions and peace with it, and that's fine, I guess. Mine is that he probably did what he was accused of, and because of that, I personally don't enjoy watching him play in a Twins uniform. Further, I resent the Twins and MLB not addressing it in any meaningful way, thereby passing the ethical/moral dilemma on to fans. Every time I watch Sano, the Twins, any MLB I'm saying 'well, I guess watching baseball is more important to me than standing up against sexual assault.' The entities that had an opportunity to do something about this issue when confronted with it directly, passed on that opportunity. 

     

    What a player does on the field is obviously the biggest factor in their level of popularity and recognition, whether or not they reach star status or superstar status or whatever. But what (ASIDE: as I type this, Sano just hit a bomb to right center in whatever the Tigers' stadium is called now) a player does off the field also impacts their popularity and stardom. There's nothing Sano can do on the field that will erase, for me, the wrongness of what he was accused of. Even If there were anything he could do off the field to make up for it, he won't. If he did what he was accused of, he did it because he thought he would get away with it. And he did. The league, the team, and the fans let him off the hook.

     

    I began by saying that I think Sano is good and that I think he will get better. I think this because of his talent, and despite his repeatedly demonstrated poor character. But I think that a case can be made that because of his poor character, he will not get better. He will stay the same or get worse. In which case, a reasonable action would be to move him. Therefore, I don't think the premise of this article is as bad as most of the posters in the thread do. 

     

    One poster stated that Sano had been cleared of the accusations. If that is referring to the MLB 'investigation', I would say that investigation amounted to a pretty effective cover up. If there has been other exonerating anything, I haven't heard about it, but would like to, as my preference is to watch Sano and all his talent without internal conflict.

     

    Otherwise, in order of preference, I suggest:

     

    Cut him and sign Mauer

    Cut him

    Trade him

    Mandate attendance of sexual violence awareness classes indefinitely

     

    That's just me though, and my opinion is pretty disconnected from his performance. (Though, his long term performance may be connected to his quality of character, which I estimate to be poor).

     

    This is well said.

     

    To think it's a black and white issue where some fans can't decide they are done supporting him is closed minded.

     

     

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    I saw a couple of good signs today. Taking that ball to right center was great and I think he is trying to lay off pitches out of the zone. Time will tell. Regarding the article: Sano has never been a superstar and we would be crazy to trade him right now and probably ever has the upside is immense. And this is coming from a long time Sano doubter

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    Miguel Sano before tonight's (Wednesday) game;

     

    1.009 OPS, .406 wOBA, 156 wRC+.  Not only is his offense seen as above average thus far this season, so is his defense AND baserunning.  He's accumulated 0.8 WAR in only 14 games--in a 154 game season, that's a 9 WAR season.  Sure he strikes out a lot, but he also has nearly a 50% hard hit rate, and only a 6.5% soft hit rate--in other words, the 65% of the time he makes contact, it's medium contact or better 9 times out of 10.

     

    This piece smacks of something the writer threw together on the heels of Monday's 0-3 with a strikeout, without any manner of research whatsoever.  I'm not sure how else a piece running Sano down could be posted.

    Can we get an update on those numbers?

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