Mauer's Renaissance Season

While I agree in principle, WAR is notoriously awful at measuring catcher defense.

 

And by most regards, Mauer was at least passable, if not very good (by the time framing came around, Joe was getting a bit long in the tooth for a catcher so it's hard to say what he was like in his mid 20s).

In 2009 he was an above average defender and he led the AL in BA, OBP and SLG%. When he did that, it was the first time that had happened in the AL since George Brett in 1980.  Pretty sure he is still the only catcher to ever do it.

He also led the AL in OPS+ and he led in wRC+ by 18 points.  A pretty phenomenal year.

A little uneasy about calling 2017 a meaningful "renaissance" for Mauer. He basically had the same OPS in mid-August last year, in only about 20 fewer PA than he has this year. He is definitely doing better than some of his lower post-concussion points, but I am not sure it is that drastic of an improvement. Do love the lower K rate, hopefully he can maintain that. Otherwise he seems likely largely the same player, and his improved 2017 numbers are more of a function of sample timing / end points.

I would say last year was probably the beginning of the improvement.  I think the last six months obscured that when he tanked.  I never understood why they did not DL him instead of having him try to play through an injury, esp. since the season was already lost.  I was glad when they DLed him earlier this year and just gave him time to heal.

Polarizing is a very apt description for Mauer.

True and kind of funny, since in every other aspect from what I have heard he is not exactly a controversial or polarizing guy as a person.  

Just for fun, here's a comparison using bWAR:

 

Mike Piazza had a career best bWAR of 8.7 in 1997.

 

Ivan Rodriguez had a career best bWAR of 6.5, also in 1997.

 

Which player had the better season? It's not as easy as just spitting out a number, as Pudge was one of the all-time greats behind the dish while Piazza was one of the all-time jokes behind the dish.

That's why my favorite players have always been the well rounded ones (well, except Ozzie Smith:-)).

Mauer is now 6th in AL BA and 3rd in AL OBP while playing GG defense.

W/RISP: .321 BA and an 880 OPS.

Hard to call Smith "rounded". He was stellar at one skill and, at best, passable in the rest.

Well, yeah, that's why i said except Ozzie Smith :-)

Though, in fairness, in Ozzie's day, a .262/.337/.370 was passable for a shortstop. Especially when he could play D like he did.

Well, yeah, that's why i said except Ozzie Smith :-)

 

Though, in fairness, in Ozzie's day, a .262/.337/.370 was passable for a shortstop. Especially when he could play D like he did.

Plus if I recall correctly he started his career very slowly with the bat but ended up being a decent hitter in his prime. I can't recall if the slow start withe stick is why San Diego traded him?

He's Gibsonian!

He's Puntonian!

The only player you can conclusively say is better than Joe in Twins history is Killebrew. 21 seasons, 559 HR, 143 OPS+, six top-5 MVP finishes.

 

After that, your contenders are Carew, Oliva, Puckett and Paul Sorrento.

 

Carew = 12 seasons, 137 OPS+, six batting titles

Oliva = 15 seasons, 131 OPS+

Puckett = 12 season, 124 OPS+, 6 GG, postseason magic

Mauer = 14 seasons, 126 OPS+, MVP, 3 GG, 3 batting titles

 

Those are all pretty close, especially when you take position into account. Puckett was a CF and thus more valuable than Oliva in RF and Carew at 2B/1B but much less valuable than Mauer at C.

 

I personally go Killebrew, Carew, Mauer, Puckett, Oliva but can see almost any order of the last four. And I think Mauer can catch Carew on my list with a few more good years at the tail end of his career. (And I love Carew: my favorite is that he stole home seven times in 1969. I get teams didn't scout or have video back then but seven times???)

Kind of left off Oliva's 3 batting titles and GG.   Sorrento?

One thing about Mauer-  he has had several periods in his career when he hits .400 and gets on base at a .500 clip.  I mean extended periods-  like more than a month, sometimes probably even two month stretches like that.  That is really hard to do in baseball.

Mauer has had strong 1-2 month stretches since his injury. It would be great if he's back in top form forever, sure.

The only player you can conclusively say is better than Joe in Twins history is Killebrew. 21 seasons, 559 HR, 143 OPS+, six top-5 MVP finishes.

The hard thing about evaluating Mauer in history is that he has had two careers...and in two very different ball parks.  His career as a catcher was at the very top of HOF standards offensively...no question.  On the other hand, while he was at least average defensively...probably above average...he caught fewer games per season (and for way fewer season's obviously) than the all-time greats.  This, even before his concussion.  He was always mixing in games at DH and then there were his seasons of various pre-concussion injuries.  As a first-baseman, due to a number of factors probably, he hasn't been anywhere near HOF worthy.  Including this season, by the way.  His current .810 OPS/117 OPS+ was bested by Kent Hrbek in about 10 different seasons.

So, Mauer the catcher is top 5 Twin all time.  I would agree with that.  However, his legacy will always suffer from the production at first base in the second half of his career...and from the relatively few games and seasons, the shortness, of his catching career.

The only player you can conclusively say is better than Joe in Twins history is Killebrew. 21 seasons, 559 HR, 143 OPS+, six top-5 MVP finishes.

 

After that, your contenders are Carew, Oliva, Puckett and Paul Sorrento.

 

Carew = 12 seasons, 137 OPS+, six batting titles

Oliva = 15 seasons, 131 OPS+

Puckett = 12 season, 124 OPS+, 6 GG, postseason magic

Mauer = 14 seasons, 126 OPS+, MVP, 3 GG, 3 batting titles

WAA will more accurately reflect a player's entire career, both peak and decline years. Let's take a look:

Carew (in a Twins uniform):  39.9

Killebrew (in a Senators/Twins uniform):  28.1

Mauer:  27.6

Puckett:  25.5

Oliva:  20.1

You are right about one player being head and shoulders above the others, but you are wrong about which one.  It's OK, this is a common mistake.  People have figured out that players who have incredibly long careers have inflated WARs along with other stats.  Use WAA to determine the truly elite players.

If Mauer's WAA had not been flat for the past 3 years, he would be well into the 30s by now and be a HOF lock.  Even now, HOF is not out of the question.

Joe Mauer was pretty universally considered one of the top defensive catchers in the game, as evidenced by three gold gloves. Obviously our "modern" concept of catching and statistics is hard to apply but I think we can say that he was decidedly more than "probably above average." He was an elite defensive catcher, one of the best in the league. The stats we do have back that up - he threw out 33% of base stealers in his career including three seasons above 43%.

I'll agree with this assessment.  The problem is that he didn't catch a ton, even during the years you site.  Even in contemporary terms.  During Joe's 10 seasons of catching, A.J. Pierzynski for instance, caught about 350 games more than Joe.  You cite 8 seasons of elite rate stats elsewhere in your post, but Joe only had 6 seasons where he caught even half of the Twins games...and that's counting one where he caught about 90.  To have the full 'extra' value of providing the averages he provided (both offensively and defensively) from the catcher position...you have to actually be playing the position in games.  And it doesn't matter why you weren't playing or why your peak included a relatively small number of games.  Just ask Tony Oliva.

But that is really a Cooperstown discussion (or will be in the not to distant future), so I'm off topic in that regard.  With regard to all-time great Twins, he's top 5 in my mind.  And you can make a reasonable argument that 2009 was the greatest season ever by a Twin.  (FWIW, I saw Killebrew's 1969 and Carew's 1977.  Sigh.)

I like the stats, and ignoring baserunning to determine best Twin ever.....

 

It's Carew, and it's not close, IMO. Followed by Killibrew. Then a huge gap. 

 

****I'm looking at full careers, not just as Twins.

As you might guess by my moniker,  I LIKE this!  I love expressing my opinion that Carew was better than Killebrew.  I usually don't stick around long to argue it, though.  .  Anyway, they were so different in style...couldn't get more different.  And yet had a ton of respect for each other.

Now I don't know WAA at all so you can correct me if I'm wrong. But . . .

 

Since Carew didn't have his down years as a Twin, wouldn't he have an artificially higher WAA than Killebrew, Oliva, Mauer? If we removed the last three years of Mauer because he was playing in Japan, he'd be higher. Same thing if Killebrew missed the down period of his career.

 

WAA doesn't seem to be the best determiner here. Perhaps WAA from the prime and then we take into consideration any other time some other way? I dunno, it's hard since Carew left for Cali.

I did not include Carew's WAA outside of the Twins organization because it is even higher and I figured it would not be fair to the other players.  Carew's Career WAA is 46. Carew's "decline" -- where he kept playing in spite of being a below average player -- was to the tune of -1.8 WAA and lasted a mere season and a half.

Interesting about him DHing so much. Partly because it doesn't jive with my memory of those years. Partly because it kind of makes sense - the Twins never had a good DH during that period so it would figure that there was less opportunity cost in DHing Joe more often. Benching Jason Tyner is not benching David Ortiz. If the Twins had a better DH, they might have had Joe catch more.

Not really DH'ing THAT much...just not playing.  Injuries and days off.  Again, when we get to the HOF arguments...it won't matter why...the questing will simply be "will evaluators consider his career to have been a catching career?".  But every year like this year that 'slows the bleeding' on his career averages, (while giving the totals a bit of a boost, as well)...can't hurt.