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When Twins ownership decided on Derek Falvey as the pick to lead their rebuilt front office, the underlying premise was fairly straightforward: As a mid-market team that can't afford to spend with the big-market heavy hitters, the key to sustainable contention lies in drafting and developing high-quality pitching.
Falvey had a track record for helping spearhead this model in Cleveland, a franchise that — along with Tampa Bay, another of the new regime's clear aspirational influences — became a standard-bearer for getting it right.
Specifically, the Twins hoped a Falvey-led front office would find a competitive advantage by uncovering hidden talent in the draft, as well as in other organizations via trade. They've had some success in the latter department, with Joe Ryan and Jhoan Duran emerging as two of the top arms for this year's staff.
The Twins' record for drafting and developing homegrown talent is, however, noticeably lacking. They've had a few near-misses — or, I should say, not-yets.
Bailey Ober, who was taken in the 12th round of Falvey's first draft in 2017, showed great promise last year in 20 starts as a 25-year-old rookie. But his sophomore season being wiped out by a groin injury sorta puts the brakes on his "success story" narrative.
Josh Winder, an eighth-rounder in 2018, has also flashed much to like as both a glow-up prospect and — more crucially — a capable big-league rookie. But he too now finds himself spinning in circles due to injury issues.
Neither of these guys feels like someone you can really trust as a starter going into 2023. But that is precisely what the Twins need this front office to provide, especially with so many of their more highly-drafted pitching prospects (first-rounder, Chase Petty, second-rounder Steve Hajjar, third-rounder Cade Povich) being dealt away in trades for veterans.
Louie Varland has the makings of a signature success story under Falvey. Few had eyes on him has a little-known starter at Concordia University in St. Paul. The Twins worked closely with him to improve his mechanics for better durability and increased velocity. He came back after the lost pandemic season with a bang, mowing through two levels of A-ball with a 2.10 ERA and 12.4 K/9 rate to earn Twins minor league player of the year honors.
Moving up to the high minors this year, while still subject to some outside skepticism (no major prospect ranking had him in their top 100), Varland backed up his performance at Double-A to earn an early-August promotion to Triple-A, where he was was more filthy than ever: 21.IP, 1.69 ERA, .192 BAA, 27 K, 3 BB, 1 HR.
Right now, Varland's got everything you could want: outstanding performance at every level, legitimate high-octane stuff, and -- perhaps most critically, where the Twins are concerned -- a seemingly strong bill of health and durability. In his 24 starts between Wichita and St. Paul this year, Varland has thrown 126.1 IP, which would lead all Twins pitchers.
Of course, those things were also true of Ober and Winder, and any number of other promising ascendant arms in this organization ... until they weren't. Varland unfortunately carries the burden of so many past disappointments as he steps in and tries to give this unraveling rotation a jolt.
I'm not sure how many more near-misses, or even not-yets, this front office can withstand. People can quibble over the wisdom of splashy free agent and trade acquisitions like Carlos Correa, Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle, but at the end of the day, if this regime can't start yielding some impact from its own pitching development engine, what are they here for? How can fans feel confident in the future?
Petty is gone. Matt Canterino's out of the picture until 2024. Winder's health is an ongoing question mark. Jordan Balazovic has seen his stock plunge amidst a nightmare season.
The standout pitching depth, which seemed to be such a shining strength of the system coming into this season, has been decimated. Varland is one of the few that remains, and there's a lot riding on his shoulders — from both a macro and micro perspective — as he prepares to make his debut in Yankee Stadium (a park where the Twins have won two of their past 22 games), against Aaron Judge and the Bronx Bombers, their season hanging in the balance.
Like I said ... no pressure, kid.
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