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  • Let's Cut Miguel Sanó Some Slack


    Matthew Taylor

    While he is notoriously a slow starter, Miguel Sanó is off to his slowest start yet in 2022. While it’s tempting to write him off completely, might there be reason to cut Sanó some slack?

    Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

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    Miguel Sanó has had an April to forget in 2022 for the Minnesota Twins. Through 15 games, Sanó has just five hits and an abysmal OPS of .380. Sanó has just one extra-base hit and has statistically been the least valuable player in baseball in this early season with an fWAR of -.07.

    Miguel Sanó having yet another poor start has left Minnesota Twins fans extremely frustrated with the first baseman and questioning whether it is time to cut bait. Sanó is in the final guaranteed year of his contract, and with Alex Kirilloff nearing his way back from injury and Jose Miranda on the doorstep of the Majors, it might make sense to move on from him in favor of youth.

    I certainly have voiced my own frustrations with Miguel Sanó.

    Miguel Sanó’s advanced numbers, though, paint a different picture and portend that Sanó’s early struggles are largely fluky and that better days are ahead. Let’s dig deeper into the numbers.

    First, let’s look at his contact numbers. Through the first handful of weeks, Miguel Sanó ranks 11th in all of baseball with an average exit velocity of 93.2 MPH, right on par with his career average exit velocity of 93.1 MPH. Further, Sanó’s hard-hit percentage is at 50%, tied for 24th in baseball. Finally, his barrel numbers are at his typically high rate, with a barrel percentage of 15.6%, just a tick below his career average. 

    So, if his contact numbers are at their typically high level, then it must be his poor plate discipline that explains his terrible numbers, right? Wrong. Sanó is actually showing better discipline at the plate in 2022 than he ever has in his career. Thus far in 2022, Sanó owns a career-low K% of 29.3 with a BB% of 13.8, the second-highest mark of his career. Additionally, Sanó has a career-low chase rate and whiff rate of just 16.9% and 33.3%, respectively.

    Just look at Sanó’s statcast percentile numbers. Does this look like someone who should be hitting .083 and worthy of being cut?

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    If Sanó’s contact rates are at his typically-elite levels, and his plate discipline numbers are at career-best levels, why is Miguel Sanó having such a terrible start to the season? 

    Simply put, it’s been bad luck for the Dominican. 

    A simple, yet admittedly not perfect, way to gauge luck in baseball is by looking at batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Over a large enough sample size, the BABIP for most MLB players will settle at around .300. Heading into the 2022 season, Miguel Sanó had a career BABIP of .329. This season, though, Miguel Sanó is sitting at a BABIP of .097, the second-lowest mark in baseball behind Kansas City’s Carlos Santana.

    Another way to look at bad luck is to compare a player’s actual numbers to his expected numbers and look at the difference. The best numbers to look for this is weighted on-base average (wOBA) versus expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA). wOBA is a catch-all offensive statistic that best encapsulates offensive performance. xwOBA then looks at a player's process statistics such as exit velocity to determine what a player’s numbers should be, as we all know that luck is a big part of the game of baseball. Miguel Sanó currently has a wOBA of .192, compared to a xwOBA of .334. The -0.142 difference between those two numbers is the sixth-largest discrepancy in all of baseball, showing that Sanó has been one of the most snake-bitten players in 2022.

    On Tuesday night, Miguel Sanó teased what could be the start of some converted luck as he smoked a 108 MPH single over right fielder, Robbie Grossman's, head which (in the wildest way possible) wound up being a walk-off hit for the Twins.

     

    It has been extremely frustrating to watch Miguel Sanó bat in 2022, but all of the advanced numbers show that better days are ahead for the right-hander. It can be tempting to want to give up on Sanó and want to move onto other options, but the upside that Sanó brings is sky-high. Let’s cut Sanó some slack as a big summer is coming for the powerful first baseman.

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    While I am as frustrated as anyone with the enigma that is Mr. Sano he has become the fans whipping boy at a level that is patently unfair. Examples: He's massively overweight (he shed 25 pounds), he doesn't care (see weight loss), he's terrible defensively (he isn't.) Admittedly many at bats are brutal, but given his propensity to start slowly he was harmed more than most by the abbreviated ST, umpires have the widest zone and the most liberal interpretation of "checked swing" when he's in the box, criticized for ripping a ball 108MPH because Grossman's inept and vilified for the base running fiasco last night when the blame rests with the 3B coach. And the Twins haven't had anything resembling a decent hitting coach since 2019 (so a couple of still formative years.) So yes, I will continue to cut him some slack if only perhaps because a number that screams at me: Through age 28 season 161 HR, Nelson Cruz 55 HR. Incidentally his at bats have produced 2 of the last 5 victories, Patience does have an expiration date. I'm just not quite there yet.

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    Problem is, the Twins can't afford to have a rally-killing hole in their lineup for two months, even if Sano gets red hot later. Sano's notorious early cold spell was one of the reasons that the team fell profoundly out of contention before the halfway point of last season. 

    For that reason I would get rid of Sano, replacing him with a high-average hitter like Kirilloff or Miranda. Late in a tied game with two outs and a runner on second, I'd rather have untested rookie Miranda at the plate than Sano. Kirilloff for sure, if his hand is okay. 

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    I'm old school and the advanced metrics make my head explode. When I read articles like this and see all the little letters infront of Big letters and numbers...well. For me way too much. I don't understand any of it and honestly, I really don't care to. BUT, like loud obnoxious music all the time at games, metrics are here to stay. I won't call them garbage, I'll just call them 'too much for my liking'. OK, thats off my chest.

    Sano--I think its time to move on from him. He's never going to change. However, right now, probably not the best time to single him out when our superstar Correa is just as bad, if not worse; and Polanco is dead at the plate too. Gotta think the latter two will eventually come around. Sano is who he is. He'll crush a few, he'll miss a lot more. And he will give you so-so D at first base. Probably not tradable. Probably the last year in Minnesota, barring a total epiphany

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    4 hours ago, Epravens said:

    While I am as frustrated as anyone with the enigma that is Mr. Sano he has become the fans whipping boy at a level that is patently unfair. Examples: He's massively overweight (he shed 25 pounds), he doesn't care (see weight loss), he's terrible defensively (he isn't.) Admittedly many at bats are brutal, but given his propensity to start slowly he was harmed more than most by the abbreviated ST, umpires have the widest zone and the most liberal interpretation of "checked swing" when he's in the box, criticized for ripping a ball 108MPH because Grossman's inept and vilified for the base running fiasco last night when the blame rests with the 3B coach. And the Twins haven't had anything resembling a decent hitting coach since 2019 (so a couple of still formative years.) So yes, I will continue to cut him some slack if only perhaps because a number that screams at me: Through age 28 season 161 HR, Nelson Cruz 55 HR. Incidentally his at bats have produced 2 of the last 5 victories, Patience does have an expiration date. I'm just not quite there yet.

    By what measure is he not terrible at defense? Just search the internet, it's clear he's terrible. 

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    28 minutes ago, insagt1 said:

    I'm old school and the advanced metrics make my head explode. When I read articles like this and see all the little letters infront of Big letters and numbers...well. For me way too much. I don't understand any of it and honestly, I really don't care to. BUT, like loud obnoxious music all the time at games, metrics are here to stay. I won't call them garbage, I'll just call them 'too much for my liking'. OK, thats off my chest.

    Sano--I think its time to move on from him. He's never going to change. However, right now, probably not the best time to single him out when our superstar Correa is just as bad, if not worse; and Polanco is dead at the plate too. Gotta think the latter two will eventually come around. Sano is who he is. He'll crush a few, he'll miss a lot more. And he will give you so-so D at first base. Probably not tradable. Probably the last year in Minnesota, barring a total epiphany

    Correa has been great on defense. And has a very different track record. 

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    9 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

    By what measure is he not terrible at defense? Just search the internet, it's clear he's terrible. 

    It is on the internet, it has to be true!?

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    Sano is not capable of learning. At the end of last year they changed  the way he hit. They made him wait on the ball till it got further in on the plate. This gave him a better look at the pitch. And made him follow the ball with his eyes longer. It worked well. His second half was good. He has a quick bat and more than enough power to wait. He forgot everything  he was taught.

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    13 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

    By what measure is he not terrible at defense? Just search the internet, it's clear he's terrible. 

    My eyes tell me what the internet cannot. Try it sometime.

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    30 minutes ago, Epravens said:

    My eyes tell me what the internet cannot. Try it sometime.

    You watch every game in the majors, write down every play, and compare him to every first baseman? Good for you....I don't have time for that. 

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    It's not that Sano isn't a competent MLB player; he is. He just isn't good enough to be the 1B/middle of the order bat on a contending MLB team. He's plenty good enough to start for a .500 team, but I don't want to be that. A contending team can't wait 2 months for a guy to heat up to slightly above average. We should always be evaluating players on whether they can contribute to a team contending for a championship. If they can, they stay. If they can't, you look for an upgrade. They play until you find that upgrade but you don't stop looking. Simple as that.

    Sano just isn't good enough to be what we need - a solid 1B/DH who hits in the middle of a good lineup. I wouldn't cut him slack, I'd look for his replacement. Weirdly enough, we may have found his replacement in Arraez and/or Kirilloff.   

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    At this point he is what he is. Why are people surprised when he goes through a prolonged slump?  Soon enough he is going to hit 5 homers in 5 games and people will write articles that he has finally figured it out. Then he will slump again. My guess is it’s his last season as a Twin. 

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    I would not be considering cutting him just yet.  There are a lot of great players really slumping this year.  Whit Merrifield who is normally steady has a wRC+ of 7.  Franmill Reyes, 11, Bobby Dalbec is at 30, Joey Votto 42, Marcus Semien 42, and Randy Arozarena 55.  Eddie Rosario has been the worst hitter in the league at -20 wRC+.  Correa had been pretty bad too, but he sure looks like he is out of his funk. 

    On the other hand, they just don't need him if Kirilloff can stay healthy and Trevor Larnach is for real.  They are going to let this play out for another month at least so buckle your seat belts.  

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    He doesn't need to be benched completely. He just hasn't earned the right to play every day. 

    He has earned the right for others to earn more playing time.

    It doesn't have to be an either or proposition like there is nothing in-between.  

    Play him but play him less. The ratio can change once he starts hitting like we hope he can. 

     

     

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