Knock. Knock. Silence.

I would lock up Sano and Buxton, as long as possible, hopefully this off season, but no later than next. Berrios I would wait on because all pitchers have injury concerns. It doesn't have to be done anytime soon, but feel you will need to choose between Rosario and Kepler at some point in time. I look at Polanco as the odd man out, because it certainly appears we have an abundance of middle infielders in the pipeline. 

If we keep the right 4, we should be able to extend the window. Masterful job of accumulating talent by Terry Ryan.

Re: Andrelton Simmons, Christian Yelich, Rougned Odor, Kevin Kiermaier.

Simmons, Yellich and Kiermaier all posted seasons with at least an fWAR OF 4.5 before cashing in. Buxton’s best is 3.5. Rosario’s best is 2.2. Sano’s best is 2.3. That’s a rather substantial gap IMO especially since much of Buxton’s WAR value is still tied to his defense. Odor’s struggles since cashing in would seem to be exactly the reason why you DON’T give the money to a young guy that hasn’t posted a 4.5 fWAR.

Point being if those are the names people are using to say the Twins should lock Buxton, Rosario and Sano up NOW, I am even more confident in my position in waiting until next year.

Would it make you feel better that Buxton has 5.1 bWAR?

Kiermaier posted a 7.3, and Simmons a 7.0 bWAR before cashing in. So, no. The numbers say “not yet” IMO. Odor and Yelich’s pre-contract bWARs weren’t as good as Buxton’s this year. But given their inconsistency since, it seems to reinforce the strategy of waiting. The Twins might be able to afford being wrong about one of them. They certainly can’t afford to be wrong about all 3. By that I mean if the Twins extend all 3 for the next 5 years and none of them live up to it, the franchise is destroyed for the next ten years.

As I said, those 3 simply haven’t been good enough to earn a long term commitment yet IMO.

Odor was a poor defender and barely average overall bat when the Rangers extended him. Peak of 2.4 bWAR at the time. That should hardly be a cautionary tale for Buxton.

 

Kiermaier and Simmons would be far better comps for Buxton, given their defensive prowess. Yelich too, albeit from a corner OF spot. All 3 have been solid since they signed their deals, averaging 4+ WAR per season.

 

Obviously there is risk, but I suspect if you wait to see anything more from Buxton, this type of deal will be off the table.

I would agree that of the 3 Buxton is probably the lowest risk, simply because his defense is always going to be a huge part of his contribution.

That said, his peak is/was still substantially lower than Simmons and Kiermaier. If I only attempted one, he would definitely be the one I would try to do. Nothing prevents negotiating a deal mid-season next year either. That policy was an artificial excuse of the previous regime.

I still say wait and at least see how they start next season. Right now, a much higher risk of an extension falls on the Twins side IMO. It will even out after next year, or at least by midseason of next year.

Of the Big Four, you sign whoever is most likely to flash the cash around their teammates. It totally blows to not have money when your peers do, so the other three fall like dominoes. Boom. Group discount.

You're welcome.

Of the Big Four, you sign whoever is most likely to flash the cash around their teammates. It totally blows to not have money when your peers do, so the other three fall like dominoes. Boom. Group discount.

 

You're welcome.

That would be fine if they weren’t already making half a million per. They already HAVE money.

As for the extensions themselves, I simply disagree with extending them at this time. If I’m going to potentially commit an 8 figure salary for 2 years at the tail end of the contract, I better be pretty sure these are players that are going to be productive at that point. In the cases of Rosario and Sano, we’re talking about players who have never posted an fWAR over 2.5. IMO, that’s not worth 8 figures, particularly when we are talking about a corner OFer and (by that time most likely) a first baseman. If your farm system can’t crank out 2 corners to produce better than that in the next 4 years, your organization is in pretty bad shape IMO.

Sure, maybe they get better. Maybe they don’t. Cristian Guzman never did. He posted an fWAR of 3.9 as a 23 year old and posted above 1.8 exactly one more time in his career.

Let’s step into the shoes of Derek Falvey for a minute. Are you really prepared to bank the rest of your career on 2 guys that have never posted fWARs above 2.5 and another who posted a 3.5 and never before above 1.7?

It’s real easy to say “extend them all” when it isn’t your job on the line if they don’t pan out.

On the other side of the coin, are they prepared to lose Buxton after 6 years if he develops into a star? Because if Buxton reaches the potential we think he can be (5-8 WAR player) then he will be out of Minnesota's budget.

Why? Puckett wasn’t. He posted 3 seasons of fWAR of 4.7 or higher in his first 6. They made him MLB’s first $3 mil per year player. Sure, salaries are higher now. So is revenue. Tom Kelly’s last year as manager was 2001. Twins revenue was $75 mil that year. It was $249 mil in 2016. Who knows where revenue will be in 6 years. $300 mil? Not unrealistic IMO. Will the Twins still need to make wise secisions? Yep. Will they need to choose between Buxton and maybe Sano or Rosario? Probably. Can they make Buxton one of the highest paid players in MLB and still field a championship level team? I think so.