It’s a Make Or Break Year for Jorge Polanco

Jorge Polanco has been with the Twins through good and bad. Debuting in 2016, he's been a part of some of the most irrelevant and prolific teams in recent Twins history. At 29 years old and under team control through 2025 with a very affordable contract, he could still be around for some time. 2023 will have a lot to do with this possibility, however.

Polanco has been up and down the last few years, being a great regular in 2019 before an ankle injury made him something of a non-factor in 2020. In 2021, he was arguably the best player on the team, but in 2022, he missed significant time and wasn’t quite the same player on the field. It’s hard to argue that Polanco is currently very valuable to the team, but he may have to become a more well-rounded player in order to cement his future in Minnesota.

It would be surprising to see Jorge Polanco struggle offensively in 2023. A switch hitter, he’s certain to be an everyday player, as regardless of the opposing pitcher he can take advantage of platoon splits. His slash line of .235/.346/.405 could be considered a down season by his standards, but when compared to the league average, he was still 19% above offensively. It’s easy to bet on Polanco being 15-20% above league average again in 2023, but it’s his defense that may determine his future.

Polanco ranged from below average to horrendous defensively depending on the defensive metric in 2022. His -9 Outs Above Average was better than only two players who qualified at 2B across the entire league. His -1 Defensive Runs Saved was certainly passable, but context matters. With multiple infield prospects capable of playing second base knocking on the door of the MLB, Polanco needs to finally be the second baseman we all hoped he could be.

Injuries may have played a part in Polanco’s defensive struggles, though there isn’t really much evidence to the theory that it cost him defensively. In 2021, when Polanco played 152 games and put up a career year, he was worth -10 Outs Above Average with a more impressive 3 Defensive Runs Saved. Even that positive 3 isn’t what you’d expect from a former shortstop who’s moved to second base.

Sprint speed is a good way to judge a player's health in a given year. Typically in seasons riddled with injury, sprint speed declines. In 2020, Jorge Polanco was visibly taking half swings all season as he hobbled on an ankle that required surgical repair in the offseason. He posted a career-low 27.8 average sprint speed. In 2022, Polanco’s average sprint speed was the highest it had been since 2019. In regard to second basemen, he actually improved from 30th by sprint speed in 2021 to 22nd in 2022, and for players of his same age, he was the 14th fastest player by average sprint speed. It’s possible that his knee and back issues affected his defense, but playing through injury certainly isn’t reflected at least in this metric. The fact that his 2022 defensive measures mostly match his healthy 2021 doesn't paint a great picture either.

It’s possible that despite Polanco moving off of shortstop, where he was stretched, the defensive boost we expected simply isn’t coming. Since the position change, we have roughly 1,800 innings of data telling us that this is the case. With the shift ban debuting in 2023, it’s possible things will get even worse.

Polanco can play a less-than-ideal defense and still be a valuable contributor because of his bat, but the Twins have shown they aren’t interested in this mold of player. Look no further than recently-departed Luis Arraez. There are offense-needy teams throughout the MLB, and the Twins have shown that they don’t value players who accrue all of their value at the plate. With possibly two years and $22.5 million remaining on Polanco’s contract after 2023, several teams across the league would likely give up a good bit of value if they’re willing to tolerate shaky infield defense to boost their offense. The Twins love value.

Brooks Lee, Edouard Julien, Austin Martin, Royce Lewis. These are the players to watch in 2023. If they give the Twins any hope whatsoever of being able to provide close to Jorge Polanco’s level of value, the Twins will likely see him as expendable to improve the team elsewhere. If Polanco’s defense doesn’t improve in year three as a full-time second baseman, the possibility of one of these prospects meeting that threshold becomes very likely.

It’s a make-or-break year for Jorge Polanco. Do you agree?