Is Defense Part of the Twins’ Problem?

Defense wins championships is a common mantra in professional sports. In baseball, defensive metrics have taken time and technology to assist in evaluating the actual value provided by players. When the Twins signed Carlos Correa, Minnesota projected to have one of baseball’s best up-the-middle defensive groups. However, the team has struggled defensively this season, and most of the issues are tied to a few key players.

According to Outs Above Average (OAA), the Twins rank 22nd in baseball, with only two American League clubs lower in the rankings. Four players have contributed -19 OAA to the team’s overall total, including Luis Arraez (-7), Gio Urshela (-5), Carlos Correa (-4), and Jose Miranda (-3). Correa’s inclusion on this list might be the most surprising as he was arguably baseball’s best defender in 2021 on his way to winning the AL’s Platinum Glove. Outs Above Average isn’t the only metric that paints the Twins negatively. 

Minnesota currently ranks 19th in runs prevented, slightly better than their OAA ranking. However, the Twins’ defenders have posted a -4 runs prevented with only three AL team’s currently ranking below them. One of the areas the Twins struggle with the most is coming in on the ball. Only one team, the Yankees (-9), has a lower ranking than the Twins (-8) when coming in on the ball. 

Behind the plate, Ryan Jeffers and Gary Sanchez have both made improvements. Sanchez came to the Twins as one of baseball’s worst defenders. His framing skills have jumped from the 17th percentile in 2021 to the 51st percentile in 2022. Jeffers has seen his framing move from the 74th percentile to the 78th percentile but is below average as he struggles to control the running game. Catching defense could have been an issue this year, but it’s hardly been the team’s biggest problem. 

FanGraphs utilizes multiple defensive metrics that also show Minnesota’s defensive flaws. According to FanGraphs DEF rankings, the Twins are currently the 22nd best team with a -5/2 DEF total. Out of AL squads, only the White Sox and the Rangers rank worse than the Twins. Minnesota ranks similarly bad in other more traditional defensive metrics like defensive runs saved (20th) and UZR (15th). Overall, not every Twins player is having a terrible defensive season. 

Five Twins players have a positive OAA total, including Max Kepler and Byron Buxton, who lead the team with five OAA each. Gilberto Celestino currently ranks third with three OAA; Royce Lewis and Trevor Larnach are tied with one OAA each. Buxton has been getting scheduled days off and time at DH, so his total likely would be higher with increased playing time. Kepler has been an above-average defender in the past, and the metrics prove that he is still doing well. Celestino was considered a good defender as a prospect, and that tool has transitioned to the big-league level.

Minnesota’s biggest issue is the negative defensive totals compiled by Correa and Urshela. Arraez has been bad, but he’s also been playing significant time at first base, a new position for him. Correa’s bat continues to provide value, but he needs to produce at a high level on both sides of the ball. When the Twins acquired Urshela, he wasn’t considered an above-average defender, but he’s been one of the AL’s worst defenders at third. 

If the Twins want to improve defensively, it’s hard to pinpoint the best solution. Replacing Urshela at third isn’t an easy fix because the replacement options (Arraez and Miranda) aren’t considered strong defenders. Correa can improve his defensive numbers, which would alter the entire team’s defensive profile. Neither of these solutions is guaranteed to work, and none of these names will be voluntarily removed from the line-up. 

Bad defensive plays can lead to bad innings and a snowball effect for all players involved. How do you think the Twins can improve their defense? Have you noticed the team’s defensive struggles this year? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.