Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account
  • Impromptu Draft Update


    Jeremy Nygaard

    The draft is quickly approaching (but still seems like a lifetime away). Twins Daily's draft coverage is being mapped out.

    But as of today, there are two major players as candidates for the first overall pick in June's draft and both of those players have made headlines.

    Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas | USA Today Sports

    Twins Video

    HUNTER GREENE

    Let's talk about everyone's favorite prospect first. On Wednesday the newest edition of Sports Illustrated will hit the shelves. On the cover... you guessed it. Greene. Next to his picture are phrases like: "Baseball's LeBron or the New Babe?" and proclaiming Greene as the star "baseball needs." Read the article but be warned, you're going to like Greene even more.

    Greene has also been the focus of rumors that he's trying to force his way down the draft to his hometown Padres at #3. Those rumors have been floating around in the Twitter-sphere for a bit. In a recent conversation with Greene, he addressed the internet issues, simply saying they're "not true."

    And to be honest. I don't care if they are or if they aren't. We all have jobs and those jobs are - more than likely - in places that we choose to work. He's grown up on the west coast, worked his tail off on the west coast, and if his preference is to be baseball's next star on the west coast, would you blame him?

    With all that being said, as of today, I think these internet rumors have been way overblown.

    On another note, Greene's next start hasn't been scheduled. And no one knows if it will happen again this season or not. I'm still leaning that it will.

    BRENDAN MCKAY

    So if Greene isn't the guy, it's gotta be the best pitcher in college baseball right? Or will it be the best power hitter in college baseball?

    It could be both.

    On Tuesday, McKay, who one scout told me might be the greatest college baseball player of all time, hit four home runs. The feeling for quite some time is that McKay is a pitcher who could debut in the major leagues in 2018 and fit in the top half of the rotation for years to come. But how do you ignore the bat?

    With a bat as good as his is, do you dare to get creative and continue to let him hit? You can't completely dismiss that possibility. But how realistic that is remains to be seen.

    I think the temptation then would be to think that either of Greene or McKay could be two-way guys. But McKay has the leg up there because it would be easier to DH his bat (or play it at first base) than to have Greene play shortstop in between starts.

    The likely reality, though, is that you can't do that. With either. When you draft either of these guys, you're drafting a pitcher.

    I was asked today what I would do. If things are equal, I'd take Greene. But what if, through negotiations, you realize you could draft McKay and sign him for $500k less than what Greene wants? What if that number is $750k?

    What if there is a third player that you like almost as much that will sign for $1.5 million less?

    This is the question the Twins will have to ask themselves.

    And answer.

    MORE FROM TWINS DAILY
    — Latest Twins coverage from our writers
    — Recent Twins discussion in our forums
    — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
    — Become a Twins Daily Caretaker

     Share


    User Feedback

    Recommended Comments



    Featured Comments

     

    I am not overly concerned about the Twins saving money.

     

    If they are saving money to use and get another guy who would normally go higher, I'm fine with it...  If they save money to save the Polhads some cash, not so much.

     

    There's nothing wrong with using slot savings to toss at a higher ceiling guy that they can force into a later round. It's a great way to strengthen the system. 

     

    As for me, I think I'm pretty firmly in the McKay camp after reading Jeremy's writeup.  If the difference between the two isn't all that much, I think the much higher floor is without question valuable, and if it comes with a cap savings, even better.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    I worry that the entire industry, which has been following Greene since he was a grade schooler according to the SI piece, has some tunnel vision going on.

    Don't get me wrong, the velo is enticing and he seems like a high character kid but the amount of contact he allows just doesn't seem to warrant all the hyperbole IMHO.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Concur with several people here... If Greene is the guy at 1:1, then pony up and don't low ball him. This organization does have depth.... It's debatable how good/great the depth is, but it's there. They're sorely lacking star power.

     

    I'd take my chances on Greene, who's been called a generational talent by KLAW, Longenhagen, and other national authors. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    As I said in the general draft thread, KLAW has his top 50 up.

     

    McKay is third, btw.....

     

    I'm not going to rip a Greene, McKay or Wright pick (assuming Wright looks great the rest of the year). Anyone else? I'm going to seriously question the new FO.

     

    There is a MN HS kid he has 15th....

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

     

    This isn't true. Last year, without a huge pool, the Twins went two rounds overslot with two players (Balazovic and Schick) and also were able to bank enough to sign an 11th rounder for 3rd round money.

     

    Only four teams spent $600k or more on any pick after the Top 10 rounds. The Twins were one of them.

     

    They're willing to play the game. They just haven't played it like the Astros have.

    I think it is mostly true that the Twins are among the least creative. Sure, the Twins haven't signed every single draftee exactly at slot since 2012. But neither has any other team. So you need to judge the Twins based on the other teams. Yes, they signed Benninghoff to a big-ish deal, but half the teams in baseball have signed at least one post-10th-round pick for similar money since 2012. That isn't a difference maker.

     

    Looking just at last year, Benninghoff was the only guy they signed for more than the 100K limit after round 10. Many other teams selected and signed multiple such players. The Dodgers alone signed 4.

    Going back further, since the current bonus pool structure started in 2012, the Twins have only signed 3 players total for more than the $100K limit after the 10th round. The only teams with the same or fewer such signings are the Orioles, Mariners and Rockies. Every other team has more. The Cardinals, Mets and Pirates all have signed 10 or more. And the Orioles and Mariners at least have the excuse that they have been winning and signing FAs, so their overall bonus pools have been much, much lower.

     

    Twins need to be judged based on opportunity. Since 2012, they have benefited by having some of the largest bonus pools and multiple extra picks. Yet I can count on one hand the number of "creative" moves that they have done over the past five drafts. So I think it is completely fair to say they are among the least creative teams in baseball.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

     

    I think it is mostly true that the Twins are among the least creative. Sure, the Twins haven't signed every single draftee exactly at slot since 2012. But neither has any other team. So you need to judge the Twins based on the other teams. Yes, they signed Benninghoff to a big-ish deal, but half the teams in baseball have signed at least one post-10th-round pick for similar money since 2012. That isn't a difference maker.

     

    Looking just at last year, Benninghoff was the only guy they signed for more than the 100K limit after round 10. Many other teams selected and signed multiple such players. The Dodgers alone signed 4.

    Going back further, since the current bonus pool structure started in 2012, the Twins have only signed 3 players total for more than the $100K limit after the 10th round. The only teams with the same or fewer such signings are the Orioles, Mariners and Rockies. Every other team has more. The Cardinals, Mets and Pirates all have signed 10 or more. And the Orioles and Mariners at least have the excuse that they have been winning and signing FAs, so their overall bonus pools have been much, much lower.

     

    Twins need to be judged based on opportunity. Since 2012, they have benefited by having some of the largest bonus pools and multiple extra picks. Yet I can count on one hand the number of "creative" moves that they have done over the past five drafts. So I think it is completely fair to say they are among the least creative teams in baseball.

     

    Not to mention the farm system isn't exactly highly ranked....so what they have been doing hasn't been working all that well.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

     

    How does that even happen?

     

    I don't know. I wondered the same thing... but didn't think any explanation would leave me scratching my head less.

     

    Looking at their schedule, it appears the game against Crespi is on Thursday now. I wonder if it was just a scheduling thing. Mapping out bullpens and such and if they were already thinking about shutting him down, moving a game one day would alter Greene's schedule. I don't know, just speculating. Not sure how long ago the game was moved either.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    It will be interesting to see who the new FO goes after.  Greene is going to be more years away being HS kid.  McKay is LH which is always upside.  Both offer something of offense if pitching does not take for some reason.  McKay could break out next year or year after, depending on how new FO moves prospects, old he would be 2 to 3 years most likely.  Greene would be 3-5 depending on development as well.

     

    I would go Greene, he is HS kid so higher ceiling, sure higher chance of bust too, but with him being good SS too, if for some reason he does not develop more pitches as he ages he could switch to SS or some other position.

     

    I also mentioned in a completely outside the box thinking for Greene in the future would be this.  Say he only learns a second good pitch to go with his fastball.  He gets on path of a closer, but you also use him at a position, then in save situations he comes in to close.  

     

    Overall, I just see more options and upside with Greene then with McKay with either does not pan out as a pitcher I see more potential with Greene changing to hitter.  

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

     

    Almost none of whom were acquired in the last 5 years in the draft or IFA. 

    We were talking about the farm system. The 2012 draft was one of the strongest I recall, and every one since has given every indication it will be successful also. I'm sure I don't have to remind you a successful draft is defined as one which provides 2 contributors. I challenge you to provide anything thing at all in print that doesn't show our favorite team is among the best in IFA. Ben Balder at BA has always been very complimentary. 

     

    Also, I'm sure you know most IFA signing are 16 years old. You wouldn't expect to see those signed in the past 5 years in the majors. 

    Edited by howieramone2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

     

    We were talking about the farm system. The 2012 draft was one of the strongest I recall, and every one since has given every indication it will be successful also. I'm sure I don't have to remind you a successful draft is defined as one which provides 2 contributors. I challenge you to provide anything thing at all in print that doesn't show our favorite team is among the best in IFA. Ben Balder at BA has always been very complimentary. 

     

    I pointed out that the farm system is not currently considered one of the best. Nothing more, nothing less. I don't want to clutter a draft thread with this discussion. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    I worry that the entire industry, which has been following Greene since he was a grade schooler according to the SI piece, has some tunnel vision going on.

    Don't get me wrong, the velo is enticing and he seems like a high character kid but the amount of contact he allows just doesn't seem to warrant all the hyperbole IMHO.

    was looking at his stats last night but couldn't find the one I was looking for. Any clue how many hits per inning he was giving up?
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

     

    Regardless of which guy they take, I think it would be fun to see they play this summer in some strategic way so that they could DH when they aren't pitching.

     

    Something like, Start Day 1. Day 2 don't play. Day 3 and Day 4 - DH, Day 5 - don't play, Day 6 - pitch. (in a 6-man rotation, maybe they DH day 5 too.)

     

    I think that'd be fun for E-Town (for Greene) and Cedar Rapids (or Ft. Myers) for McKay.

     

    Also, I wonder how much they'll have them pitch this year anyway. 

     

    I think you're right on this last part, Seth. At least for McKay. Read somewhere that he may have a limited workload this summer. Maybe 15 innings...2 or 3 outings. Assuming it'd be similar with Greene.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

     

    Just looking at stats I think the Twins would be crazy not to draft McKay 1-1. Like Greene a lot but there's so much more risk and his performance in high school is not as strong as McKays in college. McKay has the pitches. He may have the best bat in the draft too. I think these 2 are a clear cut 1-2 in this draft but hard to separate at the top.

     

    Yeah, I like McKay a lot... think he;ll be a heck of a pitcher. 

     

    Wouldn't mind seeing a 2019 rotation of Berrios, McKay, Romero...maybe Gonsalves and/or whatever young rotation pieces the Twins could get in a Dozier or Santana deal.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Two independent questions:

     

    • How big is the difference between HS and college talent?  As big as the difference between say A and AA or A and AAA?  I'm not equating HS to A, just concerned about the difference.
    • The twins have a first round supplemental and a 2/1 pick (35 and 37?).  Does that affect the discussion about paying over / under slot?

     

     

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

     

     

    Two independent questions:

     

    • How big is the difference between HS and college talent?  As big as the difference between say A and AA or A and AAA?  I'm not equating HS to A, just concerned about the difference.
    • The twins have a first round supplemental and a 2/1 pick (35 and 37?).  Does that affect the discussion about paying over / under slot?

     

     

    on the 2nd bullet, yes. But, the pool size is smaller this year, so it will be harder to play games, we think.

     

    As for your other question, it's big. Even the difference between the Big10 (whatever it is called) and the SEC is huge, let alone HS. And, HS in FL or CA is very different than in MN. So, if I had to guess, if HS is A ball, college is AAA. I bet Seth or some other college player could answer that more realistically.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

     

     

     

     

    Greene has a much bigger bust factor,  but also has ace stuff.  Downside is, if he cannot make a major league 3rd pitch, he ends up as a closer. 

     

     

     

    He needs:

     

    • a major league second pitch
    • a major league third pitch
    • more movement to his fastball.

     

    Downside:  He ends up like Tonkin with one less pitch

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    I have always been in the Greene camp but I'm warming up to McKay. Biggest reservation is that I don't believe he could be an Ace. Greene has that potential

    i feel the same basically. Though I also worry that Greene may only have one pitch, the fastball.
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Brendan McKay sounds like a Beverly Hills 90210 character. . .

    Mark Polishuk typed his name as Dylan McKay, which is the 90210 character, on MLB Trade Rumors and checking just now...it is still typed like that 3 days later.
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

     

    He needs:

     

    • a major league second pitch
    • a major league third pitch
    • more movement to his fastball.

     

    Downside:  He ends up like Tonkin with one less pitch

    Or becomes a shortstop like Pedro Florimon

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites




    Join the conversation

    You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
    Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

    Guest
    Add a comment...

    ×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

      Only 75 emoji are allowed.

    ×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

    ×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

    ×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

    Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...