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    Nick Nelson

    Are the Twins and Dodgers moving on from Brian Dozier trade talks? It's beginning to look that way. Let's break down the latest developments and potential ramifications.

    Image courtesy of Brad Rempel, USA Today

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    Earlier this week, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported that the two sides had reached an impasse in their negotiations with "no momentum toward deal." That's an ominous sign at this late stage of the offseason and Rosenthal later wrote that the Dodgers were "back to square one in their search for a second baseman."

    Derek Falvey and Thad Levine took over the Twins front office with a tremendous opportunity to leverage a high-quality player at peak value in order to bolster the organization's lackluster pitching corps. But it appears that timing may have been against them.

    For one thing, they've been unable to develop much of a market for Dozier. The list of contenders with high-caliber young arms and a need for an impact hitter at second base was short to begin with, and shrunk when the Mets decided to bring back Neil Walker.

    Los Angeles was a very obvious fit from the start but unfortunately, no others really emerged. While a few clubs were loosely connected with Minnesota, it was evident all along that no one was going to press hard enough to create a bidding war. This placed the Twins at a rather disadvantageous negotiating position.

    Beyond these isolated circumstances, there is a larger trend at play. Baseball teams, in general, seem to be losing their thirst for power. It's the name of Dozier's game, but the home run doesn't carry the same appeal it once did.

    Consider this: Most expected Edwin Encarnacion, who ranks second in baseball since 2012 in both homers and RBI, to land a deal in excess of $100 million as a free agent this offseason. Instead, he settled for $60 million from Cleveland. His former Toronto teammate Jose Bautista, another of the game's premier power bats, has yet to find a job. Same for Mark Trumbo, whose 47 bombs led the majors in 2016.

    In other years, it would feel crazy that a second baseman coming off a 42-homer campaign wouldn't generate an aggressive market. In this current environment, though, it's kinda par for the course.

    Every report on the matter has made sure to emphasize that trade discussions are not considered dead. Levine said this week that a point might come where the Twins would stop initiating calls, but they would never stop listening.

    However, Rosenthal's note about how the Minnesota front office "wanted to give Dozier a heightened peace of mind about his status with the club" matches a similar relay from Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press a week earlier.

    Reading between the lines, one can infer that Falvey and Levine have informed Dozier he'll be back in 2017 barring an unforeseen development. They're wise to keep their antennas up but at this point, it's tough to see what would change to precipitate a deal. More than a month after discussions began, there has been little in the way of evident progress.

    The Dodgers might feel they've done their part by offering up Jose De Leon, who is viewed by some as a top five prospect in the entire game. The Twins, meanwhile, are understandably opposed to giving up their best and most popular player for a single lottery ticket whose future could be thrown into question with a reoccurrence of his shoulder soreness, or an extension of his initial big-league struggles.

    It looks like the trenches that have been dug here. And while it's odd to see no accord despite such a natural match, it's not like either team is in a corner.

    Dodgers president Andrew Friedman, who gained notoriety while running operations for the Tampa Bay Rays, understands as well as anyone the value (and fickleness) of cheap young pitching talent. He'll be content keeping his full arsenal of young hurlers and looking elsewhere for an offensive boost. Maybe someone like Bautista could be an option.

    Meanwhile, the Twins can hang on to Dozier, who still doesn't turn 30 until May. He's in his prime and the possibility exists that we still haven't seen his best campaign. With two years left on his contract, he figures to retain strong value going forward, and if Minnesota surprisingly jumps out to a competitive start this season, he'll almost certainly be a big reason for it.

    That's a precarious gamble, though. Outside of adding Jason Castro, the Twins haven't done much to meaningfully upgrade a 100-loss team. It's reasonable to expect significant improvements from a contingent of returning players, but gaining 20-plus wins on that basis is a tough sell. If the shiny new front office brings back a largely untouched roster in 2017, the luster is going to quickly wear off in the eyes of fans and season ticket holders.

    So if Dozier stays, what's the plan? Spend some money to supplement the team around him and hope to catch lightning in a bottle? That definitely would not jibe with Falvey's initial talk of building for the future and looking at the big picture.

    But then again, you've got to work with what you've got. All that the Chief Baseball Officer and his GM can do is play the hand they're dealt. Now, we'll see if they push in their chips or continue to slow-play and straddle the line between trying to rebuild or retool.

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    Can we just state our opinions without the claim that other opinions are "immediately invalid"? That's especially rich coming from someone who seemed to suggest a 40+ WAR career (Javier Vasquez) would be a negative outcome from Jose De Leon...

     

    53+ WAR according to Fangraphs :-)

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    Of note, I find it interesting in Stewarts case that there's a lack of mention about some of the other guys in the situation.  LA still has DeJong or whatever his name is and guys like McCarthy as well.  Even without Stewart and JDL, they are sitting about 8 or so deep for options. Don't get me wrong, Stewart and JDL are certainly better options than some of them, but they are hardly hurting for SP help in that scenario.  If that's the concern, then throw in Buehler instead... but again, he's not an option. 

     

    Shs_59 is right.  If a guy like Stewart isn't an option for a second piece, then there's a big problem.  Like or not, that problem is JDL + junk. 

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    The Dodgers SP depth chart has Ryu (missed virtually all of 2015-2016), McCarthy (missed most of 2015-2016), and Kazmir whom the Dodgers would probably prefer to unload. Not to mention Hill who has had some trouble staying on the field too. It's not unreasonable that they would resist trading both of their top 2 MLB ready SP prospects right now, but would be willing to move similarly ranked guys like Calhoun, just from a strategic standpoint for 2017.

     

    It's not clear that the teams have engaged in much real negotiation on pieces beyond De Leon. If the Twins have shown no willingness to accept less than De Leon + Bellinger/Alvarez, then it doesn't make sense for the Dodgers to even offer a guy like Calhoun right now. It doesn't get a deal done now, and just increases the baseline expectation for future negotiations.

    Edited by spycake
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    Moderator Note:

     

    Keep the discussion away from personal attacks and dismissive insults. I have edited a couple of posts as opposed to hiding them entirely as most of the content is acceptable. However let's not make this debate combative; nearly everyone is on the same side in that most think Dozier should be traded, the disagreement is only on what is an acceptable return. This shouldn't be contentious. 

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    Furthermore, stepping into a MLB GM spot isn't like you or I taking over a private business, where you quite literally don't know who people are. Falvey and Levine, in their former posts, likely dealt with collecting and reviewing data on every player in the Twins org, including 5 years of such data on Dozier at the MLB level specifically. I think you are selling them short by suggesting they need an extended period of inactivity just to familiarize themselves with the Twins org. (Not to mention, virtually every other part of the Twins org below them is unchanged -- every internal opinion they seek about Dozier, our pitching prospects, etc. are exactly the same opinions that would have been provided to TR.)

     

    I don't think I'm selling them short. And I don't think I've said that they NEED extended inactivity to get familiar. Rather, I've tried to say that I think they should have the freedom to jump into the pond at the time they are ready.

     

    Rather than selling them short, I give them props for making what they think is an educated judgment on what is best for the organization and not trading him if they haven't gotten what they think he's worth. I also give them credit for not jumping to an assumption that many of us on this Web site (and many in the national media) are making -- an assumption that says, "I've got to trade Brian Dozier for whatever I can get by the start of spring training, because there's no other way forward." 

     

    Sorry if "Can anyone think of someone who came in as a GM (particularly a first-time GM) from outside the organization and made a good move in trading away the team's best player within three (or even five) months?" feels too specific to be helpful. It's intended to be pretty general. I'm fine if you prefer it as "How often do rookie GMs come to an organization and win a blockbuster trade early in their tenure?" I stuck in 3-5 months because they've been on the job about three months and it will be roughly five months into their tenure when the season starts. Some of us on this site probably think waiting a week was too long, and some of us probably think waiting 9 months is too long, so I was trying to emphasize our current situation. Similarly, I said "best player" because we've been talking about Dozier. If you want to expand that to "guys as good as Dozier or Santana," I'm fine with that too.

     

    My underlying points still stand: 

    1. I think it's human nature to be pretty cautious in a new job.

    1.1 That may be even more the case when you're new to the organization.

    1.1.1. And even more so when it's your first job at that level.

    2. They're still early in their job. 

    3. Given 1 and its subpoints and given 2, I'm cool with the fact that they haven't traded Dozier (or Santana) yet. 

     

    I also heard someone say recently that we should pay attention to the anomalies, because it's in the anomalies that we are typically pushed into new and better ways of thinking. I was asking for a little help in finding the anomalies.

     

    The best possible anomaly I've heard so far is Matt Klentak trading Ken Giles. Probably too early to tell if he won the trade, but we'll see. Even if it was anomaly in coming early in his tenure, he did seem to follow conventional wisdom in forcing both quality and quantity by making it a 2 for 5 trade, something that for what we know, the Dodgers haven't offered. That we don't have others swarming to mind makes me think that it probably is pretty common for new GMs to be cautious, and I'll continue not getting too worked up about the fact that he hasn't been traded yet.

     

    And if they make a trade tomorrow, I'll either give them credit for making a good trade or say, "Hmm -- they must know something I don't."

     

     

     

     

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