How Trevor Plouffe Became A Run Producer

The fact that the Twins aren't asking the Miguel Sano try playing a different position than third at this point is still making me uncomfortable. Plouffe has earned his time at third with improved plate-discipline and defense, and - being under 30 - can help the Twins for several years still. But Sano is nearly there when it comes to being major-league ready... one of them has to make a change to somewhere, and having either DH would do neither Sano's development or the team any long-term good.

The fact that the Twins aren't asking the Miguel Sano try playing a different position than third at this point is still making me uncomfortable. Plouffe has earned his time at third with improved plate-discipline and defense, and - being under 30 - can help the Twins for several years still. But Sano is nearly there when it comes to being major-league ready... one of them has to make a change to somewhere, and having either DH would do neither Sano's development or the team any long-term good.

I'm of the belief if you are good enough to play they will find a spot for you.  If Plouffe continues to improve and be a very solid 3rd baseman and hitter, he will stick.  Sano hasn't proven anything other than he can demolish high A pitching and can hit homeruns in AA but so far this year has not done much else (he broke out a bit last night though).  After 4 or 5 years of having very little talent, it will be a good thing for the Twins to finally have multiple good players at the same positions.

I do really like Plouffe. He has demonstrated his ability to grow as a player all around. I would like to see a analysis like this but in regards to his defense at third. He was absolutely brutal to watch in the beginning, but I no longer hold my breath when he is making a throw over to first. I would much rather have him manning third than Sano. In my opinion, Sano's future is at first base. It's a good problem to have, but where do you put Plouffe, Sano, Mauer, Vargas, or even Arcia? One option would be to move Plouffe to the outfield like Cuddyer, and he would probably do a good job as a corner outfielder. But then how do you manage Buxton, Arcia, Rosario, Hicks, and Hunter (at least for this year)? Part of me hopes that the Twins move Mauer back to catcher. His bat profiles better there; and that would allow them to have Plouffe and Sano at the infield corners, Vargas/Pinto/Arcia at DH, and the outfield however it plays out.

Mauer will not be moving back to catcher.

I would like to see Plouffe get a contract to stick around and play third base a few more years.

I'd love to have Sano's bat in the lineup, but I don't think he'll ever be as good defensively there as Plouffe is now. I think Sano is destined for first base anyway.

Which means Mauer will have to play a corner outfield spot.

I do really like Plouffe. He has demonstrated his ability to grow as a player all around. I would like to see a analysis like this but in regards to his defense at third. He was absolutely brutal to watch in the beginning, but I no longer hold my breath when he is making a throw over to first. I would much rather have him manning third than Sano. In my opinion, Sano's future is at first base. It's a good problem to have, but where do you put Plouffe, Sano, Mauer, Vargas, or even Arcia? One option would be to move Plouffe to the outfield like Cuddyer, and he would probably do a good job as a corner outfielder. But then how do you manage Buxton, Arcia, Rosario, Hicks, and Hunter (at least for this year)? Part of me hopes that the Twins move Mauer back to catcher. His bat profiles better there; and that would allow them to have Plouffe and Sano at the infield corners, Vargas/Pinto/Arcia at DH, and the outfield however it plays out.

The problem you are talking about is a good problem to have, and not one the Twins have had in recent years.  We have too much potential talent and do not have the space for them.  The solution is to find out who is ready, who will stick in the line up, and if need be trade away some to fill other holes.  The past few years players got to play, like Plouffe, because there was no one else ready, but nothing helps players produce better, in my opinion, like some competition for your job. 

I sincerely doubt the Twins will replace Plouffe with Sano unless Sano is the second coming of Gary Gaetti.

Sano would have to be a huge upgrade. At this point, Sano may have a better bat, but, Sano probably is not as complete a player as Plouffe.

Congratulations to Trevor for putting in the work to reach this point.

I agree with those that think Sano is farther away from being major league ready. The kid missed a whole year and looks it.  I would be shocked if we saw him before September and would not be surprised if he was fighting for a roster spot in the spring.

The Sano/Plouffe decision is a classic we will cross that bridge when we come to it situation.  Right now the bridge isn't even on the horizon. 

Great article on the Plouffe progression. Pretty amazing what he has done on particularly the low and away corner and the middle away sector, too. Now if he can just learn to hit those middle of the plate meatballs again............ lookout!

Why are some of the squares 1-4 or 0-2 or 0-1, etc., and not .250, .000, and .000? Is there a minimum at bats to use an average? Is .000 0-at least the minumum? 

Looking in from afar, I think the big change for Plouffe can when Molitor started him a the cleanup hitter.  Some people respond better when pushed.  Keep listening to Bruno!!

Right now, Sano isn't proving he's the prospect a lot of people think he is.  That being said, his 3 - 5 day yesterday, with 3 singles, is a good sign.  But he still has a very long road to hoe to make it to MLB.  With a good AA season this year and at least a partial one at AAA next year, he just might be ready.

That chart is hilarous.  The best place to pitch Plouffe?  Right down the middle of the plate.

Pitchers must find that chart absolutely terrifying. A .571 average on the low outside corner?? A .500 average middle in?? Not to mention .333 inside low... Jeebus! Plus, it looks like he's just not swinging at pitches out of the zone.

Either throw it down the middle, or walk him. Yikes.

Get ready for some tape measure home runs to center field by Trevor Plouffe.

It makes no sense to move Plouffe off third base for Sano. Plouffe's improved defense there has made him a very solid player... a lot of that goes out the window as an outfielder. So the choice should be between moving Sano to a different position and trading Plouffe.

Since I don't see Sano as a long-term third baseman, I think it makes more sense to consider moving Sano to the outfield until taking over for Mauer at 1B, assuming Sano gets back on track of course. 

The only issue there is that the Twins love Rosario, so there may not be an opening. Another possibility is that if Vargas doesn't put it together, to have Arcia and Sano split time between OF and DH, with Sano spelling Mauer at 1B also.

Where exactly do you Plouffe rank as a 3Bman?

Guys above him in no order

Donaldson

Rendon

Arenado

Carpenter - maybe not this good

Seager

Beltre - almost finished?

Bryant - not yet but will

Guys that seem in his tier (in no order)

Frazier

headley

Machado

Longoria - yes, Longoria is in this tier

Pablo

Wright

Chisenhall

Lawrie

Probably a couple of others

He seems to be establishing himself as a top 10ish 3Bman and could move up that list a little. 

Right now I don't support moving him from 3B and putting Sano there in the future.  This seems ironic since there has been so much analysis about how bad the Twins defense is, critical comments of torii's signing and ideas for improving the said defense.

Let Sano continue to play there since it looks like he might not come up this season.  Anything can happen and perhaps the Twins don't have Plouffe in a year or two or he gets injured.  I also think that Plouffe should be signed to an extension.  He is only two years (after this season) away from FA and if he does establish himself as a top 10 (or top 5) 3Bman then he is going to be very expensive to sign.

History kinda repeats itself.  1958 Senators.  Eddie Yost was the All Star third basement and then a kid by the name of Killebrew came along.

 

Plouffe is not quite as good as Yost was, and Sano could be better than Killebrew (already is with the glove...)

 

The Senators never worried about Yost (FWIW, was traded the next season in 1959) when Killebrew moved up.   Plouffe can replace Hunter at RF, if needs to be so and call it a day.   The Twins will not worry about Plouffe when Sano's time comes (and it better be sooner than later, if this team is still competing this season.)   I think that it is telling that the Twins extended Dozier and not Plouffe who actually has a very similar production.

 

As far as the original post goes, yes, Plouffe is driving runs better this season.   And I am not talking about ribies (which is a worthless metric anyways.)  I really like Fangraphs' "Clutch" metric, which measures how much better (or worse) a hitter does in high leverage situations, vs. content neutral situations.  This is the first year that Plouffe has a positive number.  Same for Win Probability Added (which is another way of looking at that question, better than RBI, but not quite as good as Clutch...)

I think you're wrong in the context of the current team. The Twins have plenty of "all bat, marginal field" personnel. The Senators could, I think, afford to give up some fielding for Harmon's bat. The current Twins cannot afford to give up Plouffe's fielding for another bat. 

The Twins are currently carrying Nunez, Vargas and Arcia, all of whom have limited fielding ability. At this point, it sounds like Sano would be more of the same.

Will Sano improve with the glove? I don't know. Of course, a couple of years ago, I would have laughed if you'd have told me that Trevor Plouffe would become as good with the glove as he is.

I'd also point out the Twins infield defense has become markedly improved this year, not a little of which is due to the improved play of Mr. Plouffe. 

Eddie Yost was an all star in 1952. They traded him after the 1958 season for little at age 32. In his 57 and 58 seasons he had WARs of 0.4 and 0.7. I fail to see the comparison to Plouffe who has been far more valuable at this similar spot in career. Yost's perfromance in 57 and 58 is a much better parallel to the CF situation in Minnesota

If Sano is raking then he will be able to make room with Arcia, Rosario, Hicks or Vargas in the OF or at DH.  I don't like the idea of moving Plouffe and putting Sano at 3B.  I'm okay with Hunter's defense for a year but long term I like the idea of setting up a good defense and I am not an optimist that Sano will be anything better than below average.

Agreed Chief.. I do think you make sure Sano can hit MLB pitching first.

Side note, where's Halsey?

Halsey is back after spending a few days at the VA and getting sliced and diced for a double hernia.  Hurt like hell but good to be home. 

So as far as poof goes, it's good to see him flashing leather one day and hitting the next recently.  I doubt he'll keep it up, but I like to see wins, so hope he does.  No extension or any thoughts along those lines though.