How Long of Leash Will Chris Archer Get?

Entering the 2021 season, the Twins had a clear plan for the club’s rotation. Kenta Maeda and José Berríos sat at the top of the rotation and were coming off tremendous 2020 seasons. J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker signed later in the offseason to add a veteran presence to the back of the rotation. On paper, the moves seemed justifiable as the team was coming off of back-to-back AL Central titles, and the front office had earned a level of trust from the fanbase. 

Unfortunately, not much went right for the 2021 Twins. Happ started 19 games in Minnesota and posted a 6.77 ERA with a 1.59 WHIP before being traded at the deadline. Shoemaker’s results were even worse as he accumulated an 8.06 ERA with a 1.66 WHIP while allowing 15 home runs in 16 appearances. He ended up being demoted to Triple-A and eventually released. With few other starting options, the Twins were forced to keep trotting out both of these pitchers even while each was struggling. It was tough to watch in a disappointing season. 

Flashforward to 2022, and Twins fans may have trepidation when it comes to any veteran pitcher. However, Chris Archer doesn’t fit the same mold as Happ and Shoemaker did in 2021. Last year’s veteran duo needed to be good for the team to have a chance to contend, and that didn’t happen. With no minor league season in 2020, many of Minnesota’s top pitching prospects weren’t going to be ready to contribute. That isn’t the case this season, as Archer may feel the team’s top prospects breathing down his neck from St. Paul. 

Before signing Archer, Josh Winder had the upper hand to win the final rotation spot. Because of the shorter spring training, many teams must be creative in how they handle their pitching staff early in the season. Randy Dobnak’s injury forced the team to reevaluate the roster, and Archer’s signing is a result of the team needing more starting pitching depth. 

Archer’s deal is very incentive-based, so the Twins don’t have as much of a financial commitment as they did with Happ’s $8 million deal last winter. There were plenty of rumors of the Twins looking to trade for other starting pitching, but those rumors didn’t come to fruition. Minnesota’s investment in Archer looks like a fallback option with the potential for there to still be some upside. Archer has been a great pitcher in the past, but there is a reason he was available this late in the winter.

From Minnesota’s perspective, there are a few different scenarios that play out in the team’s favor. The first scenario is that Archer pitches well enough to stay in the rotation for the first couple of months of the season. That gets the team into June, when more of the team’s pitching prospects may be ready to contribute. At that time, the team can reevaluate what role Archer plays moving forward. Maybe Archer will have a renaissance season and surprise the baseball world, but his recent track record doesn’t point to this being a reality. 

Another scenario can play out where Minnesota’s young pitching is throwing so well in the minors that they push Archer out of the rotation. Jordan Balazovic, Cole Sands, and Drew Strotman all project to be in St. Paul’s starting rotation, with Winder pitching out of the bullpen at the MLB level. The front office has tremendous faith in their young pitching, and this is the year the pipeline may pay dividends at the big-league level. 

As a backup plan, Archer has some upside, and he certainly has something to prove. Hopefully, Minnesota learned something from last year’s debacle with veteran starting pitching. This may make Archer’s time in Minnesota a little shorter, but that can be forgotten if the team gets back to its winning ways.

How long do you think Archer pitches in the Twins rotation? Should the team have a short leash with him? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.