How Is Mike Pelfrey Doing This?

I'm starting to think that if Mike Pelfrey continues his run of success and the Twins are leading the division at the trade deadline, Mike Pelfrey cannot be traded.

 

If the Twins truly are trying to "win now" the Twins cannot afford to get rid of the guy who is the staff ace this year.

 

The Twins cannot continue to "build for the future" because the future could very well be this year. 

The Twins are always afraid to part with their players who are at the peak of their career with the Twins. If I was given a nice offer, I'd send Pelfrey away. Regression is going to come eventually, not just for Pelfrey but for the Twins too. 

A fluky ERA doesn't make someone a "staff ace."

Whether they should trade him is a slightly different question.

Yesterday he threw a split at 79 and followed it up with a fastball at 94.  That is a really large difference - like Johan in his heyday.  Last year, it seemed that everything was the same speed.

I am starting to think this will not be a fluke.  As long as the Twins are in contention, you keep him.  What to do with hm next year if he keeps pitching like this will be a very interesting question.  Right now, I like him better than any other starter we have.

Mike Pelfrey has elevated his "floor" value to the Twins immensely. Now, instead of being a dubious over-30 pitcher on his way down, he looks like an inning-eating mid-rotation guy that can win a surprising number of games if he's supported by good defense and a little hitting.

His heater is better, thanks to good movement and better command. He's been keeping it generally down, but clearly he can move it around the zone and avoid the middle, without issuing walks. His slider is nothing amazing, but nobody sits on it, so he can throw it almost any time.

The big news is that splitter. Used to be that hitters could sit on Pelfrey's fastball and expect to get something in the middle part of the zone sometime during an at-bat. Now his heat is around the zone, not down the middle, and if you sit on it, he'll throw that excellent splitter, which he delivers with almost the same arm action as his heater. With its late down-left action, it's extremely hard to judge where that ball is going to be when a hitter initiates his swing. Even if they do make contact, it's going to be a weak grounder or some weird little squibber. More likely a lefty fouls it off his foot, and a rightie just whiffs. Thing is, he throws it with two strikes, and it looks like a BP fastball down the middle, so they can't prevent themselves from swinging.

The last factor is stamina. Dick and Bert both noticed how strong Pelfrey still looked right into the 8th inning. His heat was still 93mph or better, and his command had not degraded to the point where hitters could really take advantage. Granted, they were starting to zone in on his heat, but a couple good catches ended the game. Maybe Pelfrey needs a slightly different pitch pattern for the eighth inning.

Dave,

Assuming Pelfrey is being considered pitching at his bets. you don't want to trade a veteran at his high peak value while you can?

Yesterday he threw a split at 79 and followed it up with a fastball at 94.  That is a really large difference - like Johan in his heyday.  Last year, it seemed that everything was the same speed.

 

I am starting to think this will not be a fluke.  As long as the Twins are in contention, you keep him.  What to do with hm next year if he keeps pitching like this will be a very interesting question.  Right now, I like him better than any other starter we have.

Just as it used to be that I cringed when a ball was hit to Trevor Plouffe, I also cringed when Mike Pelfrey took the mound.

Neither one of those things is true this year.

I think this last start plus the two starts against Boston is probably a sign it is not a fluke. 

Extend and trade aren't the only two choices. They can also let it play out. If he finishes strong with better than league average ERA they can make him a qualifying offer.

They can't trade him at the deadline if he continues strong and they are contending.

Not when the twins are sporting the best record in the entire AL!

 

But that's not what you said, buddy.  You said, 'As long as the twins are within 4 games at the trade deadline'.  

I remember Ryan trading Castillo back when we were, what 6-7 games back of a playoff spot? One of his reasons he said he did that was that he'd rather get something for him than not since he wasn't going to re-sign him,  That went over like a ton of bricks with the fans and the players.  So yes, like you said, that would send a horrible message.

it could happen though.

Clearly yesterday Pelfrey's splitter was devastating but most MLB pitchers go through stretches of dominance at some point during the season.  One game does not a season make.  If the Twins are seriously thinking of resigning Pelf at this point I would be pretty disappointed.  There's a month and a half left before the deadline.  Let's wait and see how things go in his next 8 starts.  If he's striking out a batter per inning at that point then maybe you start a conversation with his agent.