Hicks-Murphy Trade Looking Worse By The Minute

I disagree with the headline 100%. How can we say until these guys have actually played for their respective teams, and for a few years at that?

Shoulda woulda coulda isn't how it works. There are 30 teams, each with a GM, each with an agenda. Because team A got player B for player C from team D doesn't mean Team E could've swung the same deal for player F. Deals gotta make sense both ways, and sometimes GMs are looking for specific players in return, despite what you think would have made a great deal on paper.

I'm not sure how I feel about Hicks for Murphy but I'm willing to give Murphy the benefit of the doubt and decide on how I feel about him later.

As for the discussion on waiting for Bethencourt to become available because he is better than Murphy.

I don't know who is better but I have a question in my head.

Why would the Braves trade him?

The Braves who are stockpiling every young player they can find.

The Braves who signed both AJ and Tyler Flowers so they didn't have to play the younger Bethencourt.

The Braves who have Ryan Lavarnway in AAA as the next man up.

Why would the Braves trade him? If the Braves are willing to trade him... It would make me not want him.

All very good questions.  I would add ... what would of the detractors had said if the Twins would have done nothing until now and chosen Bethencourt?  I am willing to bet that would have been deemed incredibly incompetent.

I think this trade tells me two things. 

 

1 - We view Ryan as a starting catcher and a guy that can help the team this year and eventually be our starting catcher for several years.

 

2 - We have doubts about Aaron Hicks. 

 

Time will tell if we were right. 

 

Here is what I like.

 

1 - We dealt from a position of strength for a position of weakness. 

 

2 -  We targeted a player that was likely better than any catcher we have in our system.

 

3 - We added a year of control

 

4 - Hicks in the corner OF spot, especially when he hits arb next year is EXTREMELY replaceable

Especially number 4. Aaron Hicks was improving from the left side of the plate, but his lefty stroke is VERY unlikely ever to be as good as Max Kepler's, and Max may turn out to be just as good as Hicks in the corner OF. 

So somebody is upset because we (seemingly) had a chance to acquire Christian Betancourt to be a part time MLB catcher for 2016? 

It is strange how there is criticism about the Twins setting their sights too low on JR Murphy but then some wish that Betancourt was the catcher instead. 

Throughout the minors his hit tool wasn't well liked (regardless of his AWESOME 52 game stint in AAA last year) and he has a severe plate discipline issue.  He might be an okay 3rd or 4th catching option but there is no way that I would want him starting 2-4 (unlikely 4) games a week like I expect JR Murphy to be doing next season.

Something I'm not seeing brought up here, that is the most concerning thing to me:  If Buxton starts the year in AAA (which, frankly, I will be surprised if he doesn't), Danny Santana is your opening day Center Fielder.  At the same time, some appear to think Murphy has some kind of major upside (which Hicks has), which I disagree with.

We'll never know until it plays out, but I'll continue to believe that this is an awful trade until I'm proven otherwise (not the other way around).  I just like what Hicks brings to table.

Something I'm not seeing brought up here, that is the most concerning thing to me:  If Buxton starts the year in AAA (which, frankly, I will be surprised if he doesn't), Danny Santana is your opening day Center Fielder.  At the same time, some appear to think Murphy has some kind of major upside (which Hicks has), which I disagree with.

 

We'll never know until it plays out, but I'll continue to believe that this is an awful trade until I'm proven otherwise (not the other way around).  I just like what Hicks brings to table.

Do you disagree that JR Murphy can be an average catcher?  That is the upside that most are hoping for.   Downside is that he is a good backup.  Neither of these sound ridiculous.

I haven't read all the comments on this thread, so this post could be redundant.

I don't think any of the catchers listed by the author, with the exception of Dioner Navarro, would have been any better than JRM. A few, like Avila and Iannetta and Soto and Saltalamacchia, would not have been upgrades over Suzuki. JRM has some upside. Those listed generally do not. I understand that your argument isn't that they would be upgrades in isolation, but that the Twins wouldn't have had to give up Hicks to acquire any of them. This is true. Then again, they have a potentially above average MLB catcher on their roster, who has shown flashes of hitting ability in a small sample size. Hicks has also flashed some potential, but his track record is dismal. There's nothing to suggest he will ever live up to his talents.

Also, if you include Bethanchourt's triple-A numbers, you should probably include his MLB numbers. In an admittedly small sample size (160 PA), his triple slash line was .200/.225/.290. His wRC+ was . . . wait for it . . . 36. That's Aaron-Hicks-in-his-rookie-year bad (although Hicks' wRC+ in 2013 was 62, almost twice as good as Bethancourt). There are also serious questions about Bethancourt's defense, as someone else mentioned. Finally, I wouldn't assume that San Diego is preparing to deal a catcher simply because of this trade. Austin Hedges has looked more like Drew Butera than Matt Wieters thus far. It's possible they're hedging risk (pun intended) against him busting.

I still wish the Twins would have traded for Sanchez, I know it would have taken more than Hicks, but I wonder if they could have enticed them with a package around Kepler and Polanco?

After what happened to Mauer, I am fine with the Twins not going for the top shelf C. I'm happy with trying to be close to league average hitting with strong D at the catcher position. Yes, Sanchez is better, but I'd rather use resources elsewhere. The Nats were smart ( likely pushed by Boras) to move Harper out of catching.

Torii was not traded.  If memory serves he was a FA and we offered 3-45.  He signed for 5-90.

 

The flip side is I guess we have probably invested more 1st round picks towards CF than about anyone else too.   Hunter, Hicks, Span, Revere, and Buxton. 

Invest yes - keep - NO.  But we got the most out of Kirby and I hope this will be the same with Buxton.

The Twins clearly wanted a catcher that would be around for awhile. Otherwise an Avila would have kept them floating for a year.

 

Murphy must have been an attempt at a longer term solution.

 

I just hope they are right.

The whole premise of this thread is dumb.  Neither player has played a single game for their new team, and won't for several months.  How can something get worse, when nothing has happened yet?

If you want an example of why I have grown less and less patient with the Twins operating model, Murphy is exhibit A.

 

I would prefer looking for guys with a ceiling of "damn good."

 

Instead, we trade for a guy described as having a ceiling of "competent."

 

This, to me, is sorta the position player equivalent to picking up minor league free agents to fill the bullpen. Looking for starters with very hittable stuff, but by gosh they don't walk many.

 

"Settling for" instead of "pursuing."

 

I don't see the ultimate reward as very likely with this approach.