Hicks-Murphy Trade Looking Worse By The Minute

  On 12/14/2015 at 6:57 PM, 91TwinsFan said:

I know I may be in the minority here, which is alright, I just fear that the Twins traded the wrong outfielder.  I like Rosario, but I think what we saw this year is all he'll ever be.  An erratic guy who hits .270ish and doesn't take walks while swinging at everything.  Is that really better than Aaron Hicks will be?  Yeah it could be, but I like the ability that Hicks has to take walks, work counts, and he showed to be more aggressive this year which I think will ultimately make him better.  I know that I could be totally wrong, but I like his upside better than Rosario's.  Not to mention I think if we would have traded Eddie, we would have been trading higher on him and could have maybe gotten more back in return for him.  Plus, Aaron is a plus centerfielder if Buxton is not ready come April.  Just my thoughts on the outfield situation.

I don't think Rosario is going to fall at all from last season. He is a guy that should get a little better each of the next few seasons. Hicks being traded away was a mistake, though.

I think people grossly underestimate just how difficult it is to find good catching.  What was Ryan going to do in the last two offseasons to better address the position going forward without selling the farm system?  It isn't denial.

  On 12/16/2015 at 12:11 AM, kab21 said:

I think people grossly underestimate just how difficult it is to find good catching. What was Ryan going to do in the last two offseasons to better address the position going forward without selling the farm system? It isn't denial.

Plus one hundred. I think this applies to other threads as well. I can fully endorse criticism of not improving the bullpen where many options were available but catchers are a completely different story.

  On 12/16/2015 at 4:31 AM, USAFChief said:

Off the top of my head, just in the past two years, Norris, Cervelli, Montero, Wellington Castillo, Martin, and Grandal have changed teams.

There may be more I'm forgetting.

Sure it's difficult. It's not impossible, and it IS what is expected, no? Find good players?

Norris was traded for Jesse Hahn - that is like trading a current value Trevor May or Tyler Duffey

Cervelli had played 110 MLB games in the previous 4 seasons.

Martin got 82M

Grandal was part of the Kemp trade

Castillo was traded midseason

Montero was a good bounceback candidate that had 3/40M left on his contract

You actually reinforced my point tbh.

  On 12/16/2015 at 4:12 PM, USAFChief said:

Your point is "TR isn't up to the task?"

I agree, I guess.

No, my point is that if you are going to get a good catcher then you are going to pay a stiff price.  You named a half dozen catchers that were all more questionable deals or questionable starters to begin with.

Ironically JR Murphy would also be on your list based on how low you set the bar.

  On 12/16/2015 at 5:24 PM, spycake said:

So your point is there aren't perfect catchers available for free at all times?  That's true for every position.

 

Cervelli, Montero, Castillo, etc. would have, at minimum, represented competent partners for Suzuki, if not potential starting replacements.  There is no indication the Twins inquired on them, or any catcher, for nearly 12 months after extending Suzuki.  That's a missed opportunity, no?

The missed opportunity was getting a Cervelli type backup.  The missed opportunity was not upgrading from Suzuki with a long term answer at the position.  That kind of catcher is really difficult to acquire as shown in these so called missed opportunities.

  On 12/17/2015 at 2:21 AM, spycake said:

No hindsight required to see that committing to Suzuki as your only reasonable option at the position for 2015, while other options were changing hands without requiring much talent in return, was probably a mistake.

Suzuki coming back to his normal self might have been the most predictable thing going on with the Twins heading into the 2015 season (that and Hughes doing the same).  One didn't need hindsight to see either coming.

  On 12/17/2015 at 3:31 AM, sane09 said:

If you discount the possibility of "IMPROVEMENT", I guess everyone reverts back to their normal self, and you can say it's "predictable". I say, that is bleep.

yeah, I can see how it'd be bleep to think a catcher who is over 30 didn't magically turn it around offensively, especially when he already reverted back to normal in the 2nd half of his possible best season ever at age 30. This isn't a young player we're talking about. You can think it's bleep as much as you want.  Players with a bunch of playing time don't usually maintain a year completely out of his recent normal offensive performance. Regression to the mean is an actual thing.

A GM sure as heck shouldn't count on that VAST ONE YEAR improvement to continue and put all his eggs in that basket.

Ugh....

  On 12/17/2015 at 4:17 AM, spycake said:

2013? The Twins made abundantly clear they didn't trust Pinto in 2014, it didn't take hindsight to know he wasn't a viable option for 2015, concussion or not.

None of this is a hindsight argument, you can comb the archives and find me and others questioning the early commitment to Suzuki and sitting out the catcher market last winter. Heck, I would have endorsed signing Suzuki for more than 2/12 if necessary, provided we waited to explore other options first. But committing to him as early as we did, with the suspect internal options behind him, and passing on other external options for at least a calendar year after the extension -- it doesn't take hindsight to question that strategy, no. I am surprised this is a controversial point for some.

It's only a controversial point if you're trying to find some way to defend the course of action/inaction. A half season of quality offense by 30 year old Suzuki in 2014 that had already turned back to normal in the 2nd half?  It  doesn't take much to see he hadn't turned anything around.  

  On 12/17/2015 at 4:22 AM, spycake said:

Sure, a hall of fame hitter in Molitor did it, largely by moving to DH and staying healthy. That's a terrible argument for justifying an early, exclusive commitment to catcher Suzuki last year.

Suzuki was just THIS close to becoming a HOFer just like Molitor :-)

Just like Meyer will be awesome like HOFer Big Unit because they are both tall and because Unit took awhile to find his groove.  HOFers are always great examples to look for norms.