Hayes: Twins To Sign Rich Hill & Homer Bailey

 

By deadline moves, I mean what Hill's presumed arrival in June or July is displacing.

And by Bailey's cost, if the Twins like him for the top half of their rotation for 2020, where were they a couple months ago? The A's got him for virtually nothing. Remember when we were shopping for SP at the deadline? Were we not able to trade for Bailey when we had Gibson or Perez in our playoff rotation? That's making me wonder if we'll ever acquire a top of the rotation guy. I'm glad you're still optimistic, though.

 

Well come July I'm guessing the Twins will have a better read on Hill's timeline and since they only owe him 3M if they kick him to the curb (or bullpen) or 9M if they give him a long leash, I'm guessing his presence isn't going to be what would stop them from acquiring other players should Hill's outlook become questionable.

 

As for Bailey last year, no idea why they had no interest, I was just disputing it was about money. As for me being optimistic? I've wanted trades over free agents all off season and while the lack of top free agents and the signing of lotto tickets and back of the rotation arms is understandably disappointing folks, those things are more supportive of the idea of getting a bigger name via trade, so yeah, I'll be optimistic until it either doesn't happen or until an arm I like is traded to a team that's not the Twins.

 

 

As of right now, I would trade ANY Twins SP for Bieber or Clevinger EXCEPT Berrios. Not sure about Civale yet, but he looks good. I would love to have Graterol/early and Balazovic/later move up this year permanently and push for a SP spot, any of Duran/Colina/Ober move up next year semi or permanently for SP spots. This would change the whole composition of our SP needs in 2021 and 2022. You simply have to force them to compete for a spot, and some will break through and perform, or you move on to the next wave. Then, you fill in some gaps with FA or Trade, Re-sign Berrios and Odo, and you have spots 3-5 covered with young controlled talent (Cleveland did this while paying Kluber, then moved on from him and form Bauer). It CAN BE DONE, and it is the BEST WAY to develop SP in ANY market. Our dicking around with Stewart, Gonsalves, and Romero while signing dumpster trash (and pitching Slegers, Milone, Albers, and other AAAA trash in MLB), was not the right approach - and it is costing us now. Filling out 1-5 with vets is simply not a way to evolve to a young and long-term affordable staff with some surprise #1s and high performers. We are never going to attract or buy someone else's #1 - just not going to happen - we are NOT a destination in 'fly over' country. Expecting otherwise is obtuse. We need to develop our own #1's and likely #2's - I think Falvey understands this better than anybody we could have hired.

Stewart, Gonsalves, and Romero...its ironic you bring them up, since a couple years ago they'd have been the ones being touted as the "next wave" ready to dominate by midseason. All they needed was a chance!

Here's the breakdown of Hill's incentives:

 

$1 mill for 5 GS or 25 IP

$1 mill for 7 GS or 35 IP

$1 mill for 9 GS or 45 IP

$1.5 mill for 11 GS or 55 IP

$2 mill for 13 GS or 65 IP

$3 mill for 15 GS or 75 IP

$12.5m for 75 innings. Not even effective dumpster diving.

 

$12.5m for 75 innings. Not even effective dumpster diving.

 

Almost like Rich Hill's aren't typically found in a dumpster.

 

Upon further reflection, it’s because signing both is an indication that there will be no additional pitching acquisitions.

 

I couldn't disagree more. Hill is only guaranteed 3M if he does nothing but nearly 10M if they set him loose on the mound. They have nearly a 7M incentive not to break Hill's "Only break in an emergency" seal.

 

Upon further reflection, it’s because signing both is an indication that there will be no additional pitching acquisitions.

 

How would signing Hill tell you that at all?  Who knows when and if the guy will be ready to pitch.  The timeline of July or midseason is pretty cloudy.  It's a low risk lottery ticket where if he comes back strong it will look like an insanely intelligent signing.  If he has complications, or comes back and looks done, they will be out $3M.  

 

 

Almost like Rich Hill's aren't typically found in a dumpster.

rather ironic given the post immediately following.

 

Well, Hill's outlook is by definition questionable. Even if you have him healthy and performing on July 31, I don't think you would get good odds of that lasting until Aug. 15.

And while they can technically release him at any time and only be out $3 mil, that generally doesn't happen on a practical level. They will wait until he is ready, and then give him a shot to pitch. In both aspects, we will be at an information disadvantage compared to a more traditional midseason acquisition.

Edit to add: and unless Hill is really bad, I think we'd risk angering a lot of players and agents and maybe even inviting a grievance if we try to move him to the pen to save on these incentives. There's risk if he's just a league-average type too.

 

If the Twins have a full rotation performing well and Hill's best spot is the pen no one will be up in arms. They will have incentive to do just that.

 

Which also makes sense of why Hill's incentive is based on either starts OR innings pitched. You don't see that often, if ever. It gives the Twins the ability to avoid the top of the incentive scale if Hill is not needed in the rotation while still allowing Hill the ability to recoup plenty of incentives if healthy and capable, from the pen.

rather ironic given the post immediately following.

How so? Rich Hill has been one of the best pitchers in the league when he's healthy. People didn't hold that against Ryu.

 

But mostly, calling people garbage is an awful thing to do.

 

 

Also, calling humans garbage is an awful thing to do.

who did that?