Hayes: Twins To Sign Rich Hill & Homer Bailey

Only 35 starting pitchers posted a higher WAR in 2019 than Bailey's 2.9. He was ahead of Jon Lester, Robbie Ray, Yu Darvish, Sandy Alcantara, and Wade Miley among others. Madison Bumgarner posted a 3.2 in comparison.

 

Whether you want to perceive it or not, Homer Bailey is an 'impact' pitching signing and a really great move by this front office.

 

 

I appreciate the positive take, but the market says otherwise.

There's a reason Bailey got a one-year deal with the Twins.

To date, the Twins off-season has replaced Castro, Dyson, Gibson, and Perez with Avila, Clippard, Bailey, and Hill while still having a corner infield hole. It seems that at best we're basically the same as last season with a decent chance of being worse. Coming off a 101 win season and with a huge amount of money to spend this seems like a clear failure for the front office.

Getting Hill back close to the deadline 'will be like making a trade'.

....and when they finally do something, it’s basically the only two guys I didn’t want.

Yuck.

I guess something had to be done to fill these spots, and it's nice they left themselves some room for another big signing or a couple of spring-training-value buys, but unless we see the big signing, the is a failed offseason. It certainly doesn't help them significantly in postseason matchups. 

 

For like the third offseason in a row, I like almost all their moves, yet find myself frustrated by them not addressing their biggest needs. 

I would hope that these signing don't have any effect on the Donaldson pursuit.  Winning 10-7 is still winning.  It isn't sustainable, but it gives them until the deadline at least.

I wonder if this Homer Nixon is any relation.

The development of Graterol, Balazovic, and Duran will be watched closely as will the further experiences of Rooker, Larnach, Kirilloff, and Lewis. The Twins are heavily invested in these seven players and a few more and the Twins first three months will determine whether trades or promotions are needed for August onward.

Hopefully, Bailey can be solid from day one. Hopefully, two of Dobnak, Thorpe, and someone else provide competitive outings until Pineda and Hill are available.

Signing Josh Donaldson just became even more important than before because a strong Twins team offensively will provide a boost to the hopes previously mentioned.

Already reading how great this splitter is and how it is revitalized his career.

 

Just like Blake Parker for the Twins in 2019...

I can find articles from fangraphs and Athletic referencing the effectiveness of Homer Bailey’s splitter. I can’t find the same for Parker in 2018. I will acknowledge it happens to be his best pitch as it is Bailey.

Bailey is coming off a 2.9 WAR season that ended strong. Parker 0.1 in 2018 with a significant drop from 2017.

I guess I may have hoped that the Twins could take Parker’s splutter and revitalized his career where Bailey took that step and needs to continue.

They should have got Glen Taylor to negotiate the contract for Rich Hill. Slip him some cash under the table and sign him in Spring Training and then put him right on the 60 day IL so they could bring in another body for the 40 man roster.

Getting Hill back close to the deadline 'will be like making a trade'.

I'm sure they've already got this speech in the can for the press conference.

Need help here...

I can find articles from fangraphs and Athletic referencing the effectiveness of Homer Bailey’s splitter. I can’t find the same for Parker in 2018. I will acknowledge it happens to be his best pitch as it is Bailey.

Bailey is coming off a 2.9 WAR season that ended strong. Parker 0.1 in 2018 with a significant drop from 2017.

When the Twins signed Parker, all we heard (from the talking heads, on TV, etc.) was how effective and awesome Parker's splitter was...in fact, people went so far as to say his splitter would drastically improve once the weather got warmer and he was able to get a better feel for it.

Your typical hyperbole, talking jargon that doesn't amount to much of any substance.

I seriously doubt there will be a trade coming. But if there is, it makes sense to do the signing first. They might not be so eager to sign if we just traded for Price/Gray/Archer etc. Especially Hill.

I sincerely hope that the Twins weren't waiting to swing a trade because it might have affected their chances of signing Rich Hill.

OK. Get your frustration and sarcasm out of the way today. Tomorrow: Why Bailey is actually better than MadBaum and Hill is better than Kuechel!

They are not signed to 4 year deals so the Twins did sign the better pair.

Prior to last year, the last season where he had above 1.0 fWAR, or registering a positive bWAR was 2014. You’re willing to bet a 33 year old is on the up and up now?

Lots of people hit their physical peaks in their mid to late-30s. Just look at Barry Bonds.

How disappointing.... There was so much promise going into the offseason coming off a season with 101 wins and roughly $70 million to spend on impact players. Instead we get a bunch of aging rejects that wouldn't sniff the post season on any team that is legit about contending for the World Series. Please don't @ me with Bailey could still be solid or Hill has been very good. He's 39 and coming off a significant injury and won't potentially start until mid way through the season. I don't believe for a second Avila is better than Castro either. I'll give them Clippard as a solid add to the bullpen but the rest....yuck.

My definition of an "impact pitcher" and the FO''s definition differ. A LOT.......

I appreciate the positive take, but the market says otherwise.

There's a reason Bailey got a one-year deal with the Twins.

There have been books written on how good front offices need to find value where the market isn't seeing it. One was about Billy Beane, the guy who traded for Bailey last summer. 

which WAR?

This is a pretty great example of the complete, utter ridiculousness of WAR...both versions BTW.

Homer Bailey had a 4.57 ERA last season, and an ERA over 6 in each of the previous three.

He is not one of the 36 best starters in MLB.

A "metric" that puts him there is worse than worthless.

Fangraphs.

I'm not going to make any prediction that he will once again be the 36th best starting pitcher or better. I can't speculate on the future. I'm just saying smarter people and systems than me said he was #36 last year. And between his pitch values, and numbers re: K/BB/HR allowed it's not hard to follow why. At $7m for a one year deal, that's really great.

let's hope it wasnt a short sample size mirage. Let's hope Wes Johnson's miracle work is permanent, like we all saw with Martin Perez and his cutter.

If the Twins are so lucky as to land Donaldson, the real miracle will be the empath Baldelli ego-whispering JD and Dick Mountain.