Hayes: Twins To Sign Rich Hill & Homer Bailey

The Twins missed out on the starting pitchers at the top of this year’s free agent market, though they retained veterans Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda.

Bailey is a pitcher Twins Daily’s Tom Froemming has brought up frequently this offseason. Earlier this month, Tom pointed out some ways in which Bailey compares favorably to Madison Bumgarner. Bailey gave up a lower OPS to non-pitchers (.719 vs. .764), had a higher K% vs. non-pitchers (21.4 vs. 21.3), surrendered a lower hard hit % (38.7 vs. 41.5) and a lower barrels/plate appearance % (4.0 vs. 6.3).

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Tom also used Bailey as a case study in pointing out how it may not be the worst-case scenario if Jake Odorizzi were to decline his qualifying offer.

Hill has been outstanding - when he's been on the mound. He's had a career ERA of 3.82, including a 2.91 ERA since 2015. But he also hasn't been able to make more than 25 starts since 2007. His contract reflects the risk and reward he presents: he will make $3M guaranteed, with the possibility of making an additional $9.5M in performance bonuses.

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The moves will likely disappointTwins fans, who have been waiting for the team to achieve its offseason goal of adding “impact” pitching, as neither pitcher represents impact pitching, or even an upgrade to last year’s starting rotation. They do, however, establish a “floor” for the starting rotation, which still had two vacant spots, not to mention Pineda missing the first 39 games of the season due to a PED suspension going back to September.

Instead of filling those 2+ spots with internal candidates like Randy Dobnak, Devin Smeltzer and Lewis Thorpe, they now, in theory, have all five spots covered by Jose Berrios, Odorizzi, Pineda, Bailey & Hill - though they will still need coverage at the beginning of the season for Pineda and Hill.

Bailey's $7M one-year deal and Hill's $3+M guaranteed also leave payroll room for a more significant move this offseason. Twins Daily projects the Twins to have about a $116M payroll after the signing, below last year's level, and about $20 million below our projection of the Twins team's payroll budget.

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