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  • Getting an “Ace” Easier Said Than Done


    Patrick Wozniak

    A combination of geography and a rebounding free agency market seem to be conspiring against Minnesota’s chances of acquiring a top-of-the-rotation starter this offseason. Most of the top starters don’t seem keen on pitching in Minnesota and the higher-than-expected contract dollars and length are not playing in the Twins favor.

    Image courtesy of © Tommy Gilligan - USA TODAY Sports

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    First, the most realistic and highly-coveted starter in Minnesota’s crosshairs, Zack Wheeler, signed a larger than expected $118 million deal with Philadelphia and turned down an even higher offer from the White Sox because he wanted to remain near his fiance’s home in New Jersey. And although the Twins never appeared to have a realistic chance of signing Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg, their record-setting contracts have proved beyond a doubt that this is a pitcher’s market.

    Of the starter’s left, Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Dallas Keuchel have been linked with the Twins. Bumgarner and Keuchel were once both considered “aces” but are probably more mid-rotation starters at this point. Ryu was great in 2019 but has significant injury concerns and is already 32-years-old. Keuchel is a ground ball pitcher who may want a better infield defense backing him up.

    Of course, no one wants to hear excuses at this time of year, but the fact that all three of these pitchers have their warts, may not want to pitch in Minnesota, and could end up getting paid significantly more than they are worth, point to a very realistic chance that the Twins will not end up with a “top-of-the-rotation” starter.

    Trading for a starter is another possibility that has been floating around, but this presents some problems as well. For one, as the size of contracts being handed out right now points to, teams are willing to pay a heavy price for front-end starters. This could make a trade more expensive in terms of prospects, and the front office seems unlikely to pay a heavy price. Plus, the veteran starters being brought up in the rumor mill are expensive and far from sure things. Guys like David Price and Yu Darvish are expensive and haven’t been all that effective, and Chris Sale had a down year and was injured (he’s also expensive). All are getting older and may not be worth the risk.

    A trade for a young starter would be great, but teams are generally loath to give up young pitching, so again, easier said than done. Additionally, with so many teams interested, the price will also likely be high.

    Luckily, Minnesota already got two of the best pitching values this offseason. Michael Pineda was a steal at two years and $20 million, and the Twins were very fortunate that Jake Odorizzi agreed to forgo the market and accept the $17.8 million qualifying offer. The way the market has heated up, he surely could have done better. Although they are retreads, they have the potential to be the best signings outside of Strasburg and Cole (For more on Pineda’s upside, checkout Nick Nelson’s recent article).

    While Minnesota in unlikely to be finished adding starting pitching this offseason, it’s looking more and more likely that whoever is added won’t be anyone fans are dreaming of. It has been a surprisingly robust market and things have not conspired in the Twins favor. However, like life, baseball is full of uncertainty. A year from now, we may be thankful that Bumgarner, Ryu, and Keuchel are not donning Twins jerseys (or unhappy that they are). And hey, there’s always the trade deadline!

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    The FO works in a milieu with 29 other organizations and FAs who have their own desires. This isn't as simple as "offer more money!" I'm a teacher in Michigan. You couldn't pay me enough to move my family to Louisiana to teach. Or California. Or a lot of places. Geography, culture, perception, etc. These things matter to ball players as much as they do to us. 

    I fully admit that ballplayers are human, and as such can have similar concerns and preferences as the rest of us. (How humane of me to recognize that! :) )

     

    But it's also important to keep in mind that pro athletes are essentially entertainers, like movie stars or music stars, who usually have different life goals and objectives than the rest of the population, often dating back to childhood. Even the most devoted-to-family entertainers will compromise their commitments to family and location for a few months at a time to go shoot a film on location, or go on tour, etc. All in pursuit of their craft, the competition and respect of their peers, etc. -- and yes, even in pursuit of money as well (which is sometimes how the less tangible goals are measured, in part). That kind of mindset and drive predates the 8-figure salaries, and often lasts beyond them too.

     

    That's not to say some entertainers can't be different, or have different priorities. But I'd caution against reading about Wheeler's and Bumgarner's choices this winter and drawing too many parallels to our non-entertainer lives -- as both Philly and Arizona were the high or near-high bidder, I suspect those might be more happy coincidences of the market rather than driving factors behind it.

     

    If ballplayers were more truly "like us" in this regard, I suspect we'd see some really wacky contracts -- like someone taking dramatically less to go to a non-contender in a desired location, or to play for their hometown team, etc. But we don't really see that. (The areas where we do sometimes see it, much more than in FA contracts, are in retirement/surgery decisions -- the final transition out of the driven athlete/entertainer lifestyle, for many of these guys. Gil Meche, Brad Radke, etc.)

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    That's not to say some entertainers can't be different, or have different priorities. But I'd caution against reading about Wheeler's and Bumgarner's choices this winter and drawing too many parallels to our non-entertainer lives -- as both Philly and Arizona were the high or near-high bidder, I suspect those might be more happy coincidences of the market rather than driving factors behind it.

     

    If ballplayers were more truly "like us" in this regard, I suspect we'd see some really wacky contracts -- like someone taking dramatically less to go to a non-contender in a desired location, or to play for their hometown team, etc. But we don't really see that. (The areas where we do sometimes see it, much more than in FA contracts, are in retirement/surgery decisions -- the final transition out of the driven athlete/entertainer lifestyle, for many of these guys. Gil Meche, Brad Radke, etc.)

     

    Rendon and Wheeler have both cited location as a primary concern. (In Rendon's case, the "LA lifestyle" was a legitimate concern for not signing with the Dodgers.) Wheeler turned down more money in Chicago to live in Philly, listing his in-law's home in NJ as a determining factor. Cliff Lee famously spurned a sweet deal from the Yankees because he wanted nothing to do with New York. For guys like Keuchel, whose market is a bit more depressed, money talks. For guys who have options, these personal concerns take center stage.

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    Rendon and Wheeler have both cited location as a primary concern. (In Rendon's case, the "LA lifestyle" was a legitimate concern for not signing with the Dodgers.) Wheeler turned down more money in Chicago to live in Philly, listing his in-law's home in NJ as a determining factor. Cliff Lee famously spurned a sweet deal from the Yankees because he wanted nothing to do with New York. For guys like Keuchel, whose market is a bit more depressed, money talks. For guys who have options, these personal concerns take center stage.

    The Rendon example is pretty weak, in my opinion. Did anyone even match the Angels offer? I don't doubt he likes the "LA lifestyle" but saying something good about your new city/employer after signing is standard operating procedure -- even if it's true, it doesn't really offer any insight into the player's decision making process. If the Twins had thrown $250 mil at Rendon and signed him, I'm sure he would have said something nice about the midwest too, like he enjoyed the TV show "Fargo" or something. I bet even Ricky Nolasco withheld his contempt for the state when he first signed here! :)

     

    Wheeler has a bit better case than that, although I'll remind that he signed with the better team, well above projections for his contract, and for only 2-3% off the high offer. He may really value game night with his future in-laws in New Jersey every Friday night, but the market certainly did not test his commitment to that principle above simply money and playing for the better team.

     

    Yankee fans apparently spit on Cliff Lee's wife in the 2010 postseason, so that certainly didn't help their bargaining position that offseason! FWIW, both the Phillies and Rangers offered a higher AAV than the Yankees too, so it's not like Lee had zero financial incentive to spurn NY.

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    The Rendon example is pretty weak, in my opinion. Did anyone even match the Angels offer? I don't doubt he likes the "LA lifestyle" but saying something good about your new city/employer after signing is standard operating procedure -- even if it's true, it doesn't really offer any insight into the player's decision making process. If the Twins had thrown $250 mil at Rendon and signed him, I'm sure he would have said something nice about the midwest too, like he enjoyed the TV show "Fargo" or something. I bet even Ricky Nolasco withheld his contempt for the state when he first signed here! :)

     

    Wheeler has a bit better case than that, although I'll remind that he signed with the better team, well above projections for his contract, and for only 2-3% off the high offer. He may really value game night with his future in-laws in New Jersey every Friday night, but the market certainly did not test his commitment to that principle above simply money and playing for the better team.

     

    Yankee fans apparently spit on Cliff Lee's wife in the 2010 postseason, so that certainly didn't help their bargaining position that offseason! FWIW, both the Phillies and Rangers offered a higher AAV than the Yankees too, so it's not like Lee had zero financial incentive to spurn NY.

    Rendon wasn't complimenting his new city/team. The sources were saying that he DOESN'T like the LA lifestyle, and therefore wasn't interested in signing with the Dodgers.

     

    And yes, I realize that Anaheim is just a short drive from LA, I'm just the messenger, maybe Rendon didn't know that!

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    Rendon wasn't complimenting his new city/team. The sources were saying that he DOESN'T like the LA lifestyle, and therefore wasn't interested in signing with the Dodgers.

    And yes, I realize that Anaheim is just a short drive from LA, I'm just the messenger, maybe Rendon didn't know that!

    Ah got it. I misread.

     

    Still, yeah, it seems 29 teams would have equal claim to not being LA -- most more than Anaheim! :)

     

    I kinda doubt the Dodgers would have offered that kind of money either, which would make the point moot -- they do have the capacity to spend, but 3B seems like more of a want than a need for them at the moment, and they haven't been super-aggressive in FA lately.

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    Berrios still can become an ace. They need to pay up and extend him.

    Doesn't matter. The fact that he's turned down two extension offers so far and has not entered extended negotiations yet means he has no intention of staying in Minnesota. Might as well trade him now along with Sano and Buxton and start rebuilding again.

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    The Rendon example is pretty weak, in my opinion. Did anyone even match the Angels offer? I don't doubt he likes the "LA lifestyle" but saying something good about your new city/employer after signing is standard operating procedure -- even if it's true, it doesn't really offer any insight into the player's decision making process. If the Twins had thrown $250 mil at Rendon and signed him, I'm sure he would have said something nice about the midwest too, like he enjoyed the TV show "Fargo" or something. I bet even Ricky Nolasco withheld his contempt for the state when he first signed here! :)

     

    Wheeler has a bit better case than that, although I'll remind that he signed with the better team, well above projections for his contract, and for only 2-3% off the high offer. He may really value game night with his future in-laws in New Jersey every Friday night, but the market certainly did not test his commitment to that principle above simply money and playing for the better team.

     

    Yankee fans apparently spit on Cliff Lee's wife in the 2010 postseason, so that certainly didn't help their bargaining position that offseason! FWIW, both the Phillies and Rangers offered a higher AAV than the Yankees too, so it's not like Lee had zero financial incentive to spurn NY.

    I'm not sure that abrogating every example as an anomaly is the right tack. Garret Cole took the money. It was money that was never within the realm of possibility for the Twins. Some players are in it just for the money, but, like actors, if they are in demand, then they can be particular. Andrew Luck walked away because there is more to life for him than entertaining. Calvin Johnson, took. For that matter, Mauer had a few serviceable years ahead of him, but chose to call it quits. These people aren't automata. I think we do them a disservice assuming that they'll chase money. Would Wheeler have come to Minny if he were offered 150,000,000? Maybe. I doubt it, though. At the end of the day, you and are just talking past each other. I've seen enough demonstrable growth by this FO to assume goodwill, and there have been enough articles from "those who got away" for me to think that, for whatever reason, destination was an important factor in them not coming to Minneapolis. It sucks because it seems like we have a good thing going right now. 

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    I'm not sure that abrogating every example as an anomaly is the right tack. Garret Cole took the money. It was money that was never within the realm of possibility for the Twins. Some players are in it just for the money, but, like actors, if they are in demand, then they can be particular. Andrew Luck walked away because there is more to life for him than entertaining. Calvin Johnson, took. For that matter, Mauer had a few serviceable years ahead of him, but chose to call it quits. These people aren't automata. I think we do them a disservice assuming that they'll chase money. Would Wheeler have come to Minny if he were offered 150,000,000? Maybe. I doubt it, though. At the end of the day, you and are just talking past each other. I've seen enough demonstrable growth by this FO to assume goodwill, and there have been enough articles from "those who got away" for me to think that, for whatever reason, destination was an important factor in them not coming to Minneapolis. It sucks because it seems like we have a good thing going right now. 

    We are talking past each other a bit, and I apologize for that.

     

    I'll just conclude this tangent by saying I'm not picking on the FO here at all -- I suspect that Bumgarner and Wheeler probably weren't worth 20% more than what they signed for (pending future Twins pitching moves, I hope!). I'm just commenting on players and contracts in general.

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