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  • Game Recap: Twins 5, White Sox 4


    Jamie Cameron

    The Twins walked off the White Sox 5-4 Tuesday in a game full of drama. In a game where Miguel Sanó finally arrived in the 2021 season, the biggest question remains, did Tyler Duffey throw at Yermin Mercedes on purpose?

    Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson - USA Today Sports

    Twins Video

    Box Score
    Ober: 4 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
    Home Runs: Sanó 3 (6)
    Top 3 WPA: Sanó .477, Polanco .432, Rogers .139
    Win Probability Chart (via Fangraphs)

    Walkoff.png.a68f692445a4a49d935aab5e1f3f8999.png

    Pineda Scratched, Pen Shuffled

    Michael Pineda was scratched from his start Tuesday, with Twins injury news coming thick and fast.

    To replace Pineda, the Twins promoted 6’9 Bailey Ober, The Twins 2017 12th round pick. The control artist has put up consistently outstanding numbers for the Twins in MiLB, most recently sporting an ERA under 1.00 in 2019 between A+ and AA.

    In an additional move, the Twins promoted Cody Stashak, DFAing Derek Law after surrendering 4 runs in 1.1 inning in Monday’s blowout.

    In other roster and injury news, well, here’s a summary:

    Ober-Matched?

    Ober was welcomed to the show by Jake Lamb, who deposited a pitch into the right field bleachers to give the White Sox a 1-0 lead. After back to back hits from Moncada and soon-to-be-punished Yermin Mercedes, Ober settled down to retire the side. Ex-Twin and current sweaty grizzly bear Lance Lynn struggled in the first, before getting Miguel Sanó to pop out to end a two-on threat.

    The Sox added on in the third, Moncada doubling home Lamb. Yasmani Grandal then added a two run home run off Ober, on one of his few mistake pitches. Despite surrendering 4 ER in his first 4 innings, Ober’s stuff looks like it will play at the back end of an MLB rotation. In what is already a lost season, Twins fans will want to see more.

    Sanó continued his improved at bats with a solo home run to left field in the bottom of the 4th, keeping his hands inside a Lance Lynn cutter, trimming the deficit to 4-1.

    Five Innings of Bull...pen

    Ober surrendered the game to a returned Cody Stashak in the 5th inning. Stashak worked two scoreless inning, *lowering* his ERA to 7.11. Sanó added his second home run of the night after an excellent at bat in the bottom of the 6th, working a 3-2 count after being down 0-2 and depositing a pitch to straight away center field. Larnach followed up with a 114 mph single to right field, before Kyle Garlick grounded out to short to end the threat.

    Late Inning Drama

    After entering in the 7th and beginning the inning with as Moncada groundout, Tyler Duffey was ejected after throwing behind Yermin Mercedes. Rocco Baldelli was ejected in quick succession after arguing with home plate umpire Jim Reynolds. The million dollar question: did Duffey throw at Mercedes on purpose? You decide.

    In an improbable turn of events, Miguel Sanó hit his third home run of the game in the bottom of the 8th, an opposite field shot of Aaron Bummer, tying the game at 4.

    Taylor Rogers entered in the top of the 9th, and struck out Yasmani Grandal, giving the Twins an opportunity to walk off in the bottom of the 9th. In the bottom of the 9th, Simmons singled, Cruz moved him to second with a weak groundout. Tony La Russa intentionally walked Luis Arraez before a Donaldson fly out moved Simmons to third base. Enter Jorge Polanco. Polanco's walk off was an outstanding end to what seemed like another inevitable defeat. Whether the Twins can put more wins together and turn their season around, remains to be seen. What were your thoughts on the game today? Is Miggy back? Did Duffey throw a Mercedes? Weigh in below.

    Bleacher Tweets

    On my recap days, I’m going to throw in a crowd sourced statistic, joke, story, or complaint to get more voices into the recap. Tonight's depressing offering is courtesy of noted grump Cody Pirkl.

    Bullpen Usage Chart

      FRI SAT SUN MON TUE TOT
    Thielbar 29 0 28 0 0 57
    Stashak 0 17 0 0 35 52
    Rogers 0 0 12 0 27 39
    Robles 0 17 0 0 17 34
    Duffey 0 0 26 0 5 31
    Colomé 0 7 0 0 19 26
    Alcala 0 0 0 18 0 18

    What’s Next?

    On Wednesday, the Twins will send Matt Shoemaker to the hill against Lucas Giolito. First pitch is at 12:10 CT.

     

     

     

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    Duffey did not throw at Mercedes. That pitch went exactly where he intended it to go. (IMHO.)

    Sixty years ago the first pitch in Mercedes' first plate appearance would have been in his ribs at 90 mph. Whether or not that is right and good, both players, both teams, both managers, and all four umpires would have accepted it as part of the game. And that would have been the end of it. Of course, sixty years ago no team would have had such little pride as to have a third-string catcher lob 45-mph tosses from the mound. And, of course, even if that had happened no batter would have swung at 3-0 in that situation.

    It all comes down to sportsmanship. Do unto others as you would have them do unto you. Or something like that.

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    1 hour ago, Taildragger8791 said:

    These feels like one of those situations where someone is such an outlier that they broke the advanced statistic.

    It's missing a little context not being position-adjusted. Looks like league-wide wRC+ is 104 & 111 for 1B & DH this year. So still not too far off. But oof-dah that was one heck of a black hole for 3/4 of the season to date just to get to this point.

    No, wRC+ is not position adjusted and one definitely wants better than league average from a first basemen.

    My point was to show just how little Sano had played to this point and that a couple of really good games completely changes his season stat line.

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    1 hour ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

    I'm not a stats guy so here's a question I'd like some help with:  How many games did Sano not win by striking out with RISP when the Twins were behind versus how many games did he "win" by smacking a moonshot to put the Twins in the lead and/or tie the game and the Twins eventually triumphed?

    Is there a stat for that?

    As Mike said, WPA calculates that.

    And while Sano's WPA is kinda bad this season (-0.4), it's not terrible in the context of the 2021 Twins. Mitch Garver has been much worse at -1.3, Simmons has been marginally worse at -0.7. Sano is actually tied with Arraez at -0.4, though Arraez has played a lot more.

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    Just now, Brock Beauchamp said:

    As Mike said, WPA calculates that.

    And while Sano's WPA is kinda bad this season (-0.4), it's not terrible in the context of the 2021 Twins. Mitch Garver has been much worse at -1.3, Simmons has been marginally worse at -0.7. Sano is actually tied with Arraez at -0.4, though Arraez has played a lot more.

    Interestingly, that means that Sano has been worse then Arraez....because Sano has accumulated more negative odds in less games......or, more accurately, he's made it more likely they'd lose than Arraez has. I expect Sano to have a slightly positive WPA by the end of the year.

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    Ah, finally found on B-Ref where I can sort team by WPA:

    Team Win Probability*
    Name Age PA BtRuns BtWins Plays WPA
    Jorge Polanco# 27 160 0.7 0.1 165 1.0
    Byron Buxton (10-day IL) 27 98 15.5 1.5 105 0.9
    Nelson Cruz 40 155 7.2 0.7 157 0.2
    Rob Refsnyder 30 9 2.5 0.2 9 0.2
    Jake Cave (60-day IL)* 28 93 -5.8 -0.6 96 0.1
    Nick Gordon (40-man)* 25 3 0.6 0.1 5 0.1
    Jose Berrios 27 2 -0.5 -0.1 2 0.0
    Kenta Maeda 33 2 -0.3 0.0 2 0.0
    Josh Donaldson 35 116 6.4 0.6 119 -0.1
    Michael Pineda 32 2 -0.5 -0.1 2 -0.1
    JT Riddle* 29 6 -0.1 0.0 6 -0.1
    Kyle Garlick 29 67 -0.1 0.0 68 -0.2
    Max Kepler* 28 119 0.8 0.1 127 -0.2
    Alex Kirilloff (10-day IL)* 23 44 1.0 0.1 45 -0.2
    Ben Rortvedt* 23 26 -2.0 -0.2 27 -0.2
    Trevor Larnach* 24 27 1.1 0.1 27 -0.3
    Luis Arraez* 24 136 1.3 0.1 142 -0.4
    Miguel Sano 28 99 0.5 0.1 99 -0.4
    Brent Rooker (40-man) 26 30 -3.6 -0.4 30 -0.5
    Willians Astudillo 29 82 1.7 0.2 83 -0.6
    Andrelton Simmons 31 110 0.3 0.0 112 -0.7
    Ryan Jeffers (40-man) 24 37 -3.7 -0.4 38 -0.9
    Mitch Garver 30 99 -0.4 0.0 99 -1.3
    League Average            
    Team Total 29.2 1522 22.4 2.2 1565 -3.8
    Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
    Generated 5/19/2021.
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    Just now, Mike Sixel said:

    Interestingly, that means that Sano has been worse then Arraez....because Sano has accumulated more negative odds in less games......or, more accurately, he's made it more likely they'd lose than Arraez has. I expect Sano to have a slightly positive WPA by the end of the year.

    Yep, that's what I meant, though I didn't really describe it well. Arraez has been marginally better than Sano, though both have been below average.

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    14 hours ago, theBOMisthebomb said:

    La Russa gave him the take sign and the guy swung through it in an 11 run game. It was a bush league move clearly to simply pad stats and was selfish. Ignoring a sign from the manager seems to be a known (written) rule. Many times in life something is technically not wrong, which does not mean it wasn't a jerk move. I'm glad the Twins at least did something to show they have some fight. 

    Sorry, I want to say bull****, but I will refrain.  Just pitch the ball, hit the ball or call the game when one team gets 10 runs.   And thanks to the editor who cleaned up my post!  

     

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    12 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

    Duffey did not throw at Mercedes. That pitch went exactly where he intended it to go. (IMHO.)

    Sixty years ago the first pitch in Mercedes' first plate appearance would have been in his ribs at 90 mph. Whether or not that is right and good, both players, both teams, both managers, and all four umpires would have accepted it as part of the game. And that would have been the end of it. Of course, sixty years ago no team would have had such little pride as to have a third-string catcher lob 45-mph tosses from the mound. And, of course, even if that had happened no batter would have swung at 3-0 in that situation.

    It all comes down to sportsmanship. Do unto others as you would have them do unto you. Or something like that.

    No, he tried to hit him into his meaty thighs & glute (largest muscle in the human body) which, to your point, is the "sportsmanship" place to hit someone. 

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