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  • Game Recap: Twins 2, Royals 1

    Matthew Lenz

    By Matthew Lenz

    The Twins come out on top against the Royals on Sunday afternoon after another game of struggling to push across runs. They were able to split the four-game series against the Royals improving to 23-35 on the season. That and more in today’s game recap.

    Image courtesy of © Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

    Twins Video

    Box Score

    Bailey Ober: 4 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K (72.5% strikes)

    Homeruns: none

    Top 3 WPA: Rogers (.452), Larnach (.120), Duffey (.110)

    Win Probability Chart (via Fangraphs)

    584694525_chart(1).png.72061f4ced458842c019491527d7cb98.png

    Ober Efficient in Second Career Start

    Like his first Major League start, Ober gave the Twins four strikeouts in four innings but this time he was able to keep hitters in the ballpark leading to just one run scored. Ober was looking good early after going six up-six down in the first two innings including three strikeouts, executing the scouting report on the Royals:

    The “Rocco pulls his pitchers too early” crowd will not be happy as Ober only needed 51 pitches to get through those four innings, but the Royals were hitting the ball hard and had an xBA of .342 going into the top of the fifth. Moreover, in the third the Royals had runners on 1st and 2nd with nobody out before Miguel Sanó was involved in his third triple play in as many years and the fifteenth in franchise history:

    Even in the fourth inning, Royals hitters were starting to get to Ober after Alex Kirilloff misplayed a lead-off Whit Merrifield single, turning it into a standup triple. Fortunately, Andrelton Simmons was shifted behind second base to snare a Carlos Santana line drive that helped limit the damage of the inning to just one run on three hits.

    Twins Load the Bases but Struggle to Score

    I mean that both figuratively and literally. Brady Singer needed 106 pitches to get through five and two-thirds innings where he allowed eight hits and three walks, yet the Twins were only able to manage two runs scored going 2-for-8 with runners in scoring position. But literally in the fifth, Polanco placed a bunt perfectly down the third baseline which loaded the bases with nobody out. After back-to-back strikeouts from Kirilloff and Sanó, the Twins were able to scrape together a run thanks to a Trevor Larnach hit-by-pitch. On the day the Twins finished going 2-for-11 with 10 left on base. With all of that said, it’s hard to be totally negative when you are able to get on base 13 times like the Twins did today.

    Strikeouts aside, Miguel Sanó continued to hit the ball hard today with an RBI double that gave the Twins their first lead in the third, as well as hitting a shot to centerfied in the 6th that had  an exit velocity of 96.5 miles per hour and an xBA of .390. More encouraging is the continued hitting of Nick Gordon who went 2-for-4 upping his OPS to .979 while swiping his third base on the season, as the Twins organization continues to develop middle infield talent after seeing Luis Arraez and Jorge Polanco experience success in recent years.

    Bullpen Turns in Solid Series

    A Taylor Rogers high leverage save was a great way to cap off a tremendous weekend by the Twins bullpen. After a taxing six and two-thirds inning on Friday night, the Twins relief pitchers were able to shut down the Royals for three innings on Saturday and five innings on Sunday, not to mention three innings of one (unearned) run ball on Thursday night. 

    Although it may be too little too late for 2021, the Twins will likely be seeking to get some value out of one-year rentals Alex Colomé and Hansel Robles via trades while also giving pitchers like Jorge Alcala and Luke Farrell an opportunity to showcase their talents for 2022 and beyond. 

      WED THU FRI SAT SUN TOT
    Anderson 0 0 62 0 0 62
    Farrell 0 11 0 0 13 24
    Colomé 21 0 0 0 0 21
    Robles 0 20 0 10 15 45
    Duffey 0 12 0 7 14 33
    Alcala 3 0 7 0 10 20
    Rogers 0 0 0 12 0 12

    A lot of fans were hoping that 13 games against the Orioles and Royals would ignite this team into the playoff contender they were projected to be. Unfortunately, the Twins end up going 6-7 over that stretch and now face Yankees and Astros for six games at home after an off-day on Monday. I’d imagine these last two weeks were the figurative “nail in the coffin” for even the most optimistic fans.

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    Matt is a connoisseur of all things baseball, true crime, and food. Also a fan of the Timberwolves and Gophers Sports. Check out my socials #LenzysLots.
    Follow Matthew Lenz on Twitter: Lenzy2108

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    Featured Comments

    Mike Sixel

    Mike Sixel 41,021

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    8 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

    I would still prefer a ball that is hit only 50 MPH and falls in for a hit and scores a runner.  And, yes, I'm 74 years old.

    We all would, but the data tells us that a hard hit ball is more likely to be a hit.....If you want to know what is likely to happen in the future (say, if you ran a team), you'd want the data that tells you what is likely to happen in the future, not the luck that happened in the past.

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    Mike Sixel

    Mike Sixel 41,021

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    20 minutes ago, h2oface said:

    The same people that claim RBI are meaningless and outdated, like to use Batting average with RISP with great importance. I guess they are important to a team, but not important that an individual actually steps up to the added pressure and delivers. Go figure........... 

    ?

    No, if you go to Fangraphs or other places, that is not what they would say about BA with RISP. They'd say that sample size is smaller compared to overall batting numbers, and that that those numbers are 1000000x better at predicting the future. 

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    h2oface

    h2oface 7,066

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

    ?

    No, if you go to Fangraphs or other places, that is not what they would say about BA with RISP. They'd say that sample size is smaller compared to overall batting numbers, and that that those numbers are 1000000x better at predicting the future. 

    One Million times. hmmmm. I guess you don't see the irony that I do. Well, we all know about predictive stats, and how they can be bet on and how well they predict the future. I guess I can buy tickets to the playoffs now. The Twins were predicted to be one of the 5 best teams and headed for the playoffs. This all must be just a dream. 

     

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    jimbo92107

    jimbo92107 7,419

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    On 6/6/2021 at 4:36 PM, mikelink45 said:

    A good team should win close games and pitchers duels, but we are playing the bottom teams and for us to barely win the games we are not blown out in is not a good sign.  I do like having Ober pitch today and I understand what the writer says about him getting hit harder as the game goes on, but part of learning how to be a starter is to learn how to handle situations like this and to work through them.  

    Good thing about Ober is that his stuff is naturally different, coming from that higher release point. Also, he can make adjustments easier than some others because of his ability/willingness to throw strikes with each pitch. Some Twins pitchers seem to go through spells where they can't find the zone at all. I have not yet seen Ober go through one of those spells. Big props just for that.

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    terrydactyls

    terrydactyls 3,340

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

    We all would, but the data tells us that a hard hit ball is more likely to be a hit.....If you want to know what is likely to happen in the future (say, if you ran a team), you'd want the data that tells you what is likely to happen in the future, not the luck that happened in the past.

    Maybe you should play Strat-O-Matic Baseball.  It's all about statistics and probability, but very little about real life.

     

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    USAFChief

    USAFChief 58,010

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    On 6/7/2021 at 10:17 AM, joefish said:

    You are not the only "old schooler" on here who could not care less about those numbers. 

    I push them aside like the cold canned peas my parents used to try to make me eat as a kid.

    I still push them aside, when the nice orderly tries to make me eat them in the home.

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    USAFChief

    USAFChief 58,010

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    21 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

    If hitters could control where the ball went, their batting average would be ridiculously higher. I really don't think it is as easy as you think. As a matter of fact, I'll bet you anything that if we ask players, coaches, and analysts, they'll back me up. Maybe you can try to hit it to right, but to hit it to right and not at the fielder, or where the fielder can catch it? No way.

    Nobody can "control" exactly where the ball goes, but many RH MLB hitters used to be able to hit a ground ball to the right side on a hit and run at a rate considerably higher than "random chance."

    The idea that a LH hitter can't learn how to consistently bunt hard down the third base line, or regularly take an outside pitch to left, is pretty questionable. 

    The thing is, somebody has to decide things like that are important. That swinging from the heels at every pitch, in any count, in any situation, isn't the best way to play offense. 

    Somebody, somewhere will, and soon. And it'll take a little time, but it'll work, and all the analysts at Fangraphs will marvel at the new way to play. Which won't be new.

    Shifts didn't just happen recently because nobody thought of them before. They wouldn't have worked, because players could handle a bat.

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    Mike Sixel

    Mike Sixel 41,021

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    4 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

    Nobody can "control" exactly where the ball goes, but many RH MLB hitters used to be able to hit a ground ball to the right side on a hit and run at a rate considerably higher than "random chance."

    The idea that a LH hitter can't learn how to consistently bunt hard down the third base line, or regularly take an outside pitch to left, is pretty questionable. 

    The thing is, somebody has to decide things like that are important. That swinging from the heels at every pitch, in any count, in any situation, isn't the best way to play offense. 

    Somebody, somewhere will, and soon. And it'll take a little time, but it'll work, and all the analysts at Fangraphs will marvel at the new way to play. Which won't be new.

    Shifts didn't just happen recently because nobody thought of them before. They wouldn't have worked, because players could handle a bat.

    Sure, but that's not what the post I responded to said, at all. He said ballplayers should all be like Carew, one of the greatest hitters of all time, at controlling the batted ball. That's just not realistic. 

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    USAFChief

    USAFChief 58,010

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

    Sure, but that's not what the post I responded to said, at all. He said ballplayers should all be like Carew, one of the greatest hitters of all time, at controlling the batted ball. That's just not realistic. 

    I don't think that's what he meant. And it's not at all what you said.

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    Mike Sixel

    Mike Sixel 41,021

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    6 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

    I don't think that's what he meant. And it's not at all what you said.

    I said that players can't control hitting it to right, not at the fielder. I'll say it again, people really underestimate the role of luck in hitting the ball not at a fielder. It just isn't easy to hit the ball where you want, or more guys would do it. And we wouldn't be complaining about offense. Do people think that the same FOs that figured out to improve pitching aren't working on doing it for hitting, and would teach "hit it where it can't be caught" if they could?

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    USAFChief

    USAFChief 58,010

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    6 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

    I said that players can't control hitting it to right, not at the fielder. I'll say it again, people really underestimate the role of luck in hitting the ball not at a fielder. It just isn't easy to hit the ball where you want, or more guys would do it. And we wouldn't be complaining about offense. Do people think that the same FOs that figured out to improve pitching aren't working on doing it for hitting, and would teach "hit it where it can't be caught" if they could?

    I believe if hitters chose to, they could certainly punish shifts to a degree that would make shifts counterproductive. 

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