Game Recap: Cleveland 4, Twins 1

2 hours ago, TheBoofIsLoose said:

Well, he has a .668 OPS and an 81 OPS+ which means that Kirilloff and Larnach are hitting better than him in every category except RBI, so it's fair to say the corner outfield spots are doing well in the interim. Plus we got to see classic Eddie when he was thrown out walking back to second on an admittedly boneheaded play. Honestly who would you rather have in LF, Rosario or Larnach? The answer seems pretty straightforward. I agree that it seemed people were too eager to get rid of him and I like Eddie as a player and he seems like a good person, but this narrative that he was an irreplaceable bat and clubhouse leader just doesn't make sense.

Small sample sizes for Larnach (who also blundered on the bases) and Kiriloff. Eddie is on pace to drive in 100 (again!) To me that counts more that OPS, etc. In ballgames runs count, OPS doesn't. The Twins, ostensibly, were built to win THIS YEAR. Replacing a known run-producer with two unproven (and still unproven) rookies seems inconsistent with that (now failed) approach. It's unlikely that between the two of them Kiriloff and Larnach will match Eddie this year.   

Aggravating!

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Who would Eddie be driving in, on this team? I mean....he's on pace for 100 because he hits in the prime RBI spot for a good hitting team....not because he's a better hitter than those two. 

Can't argue that point but we also know that RBI is not a great measure.  By every other measure OBP (301) OPS (.668) wRC+ 82 he is a below average hitter playing a position typically played by above average hitters.  If the Twins signed a corner OFer with this line people would be pissed.

7 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

We agree on that....I'm pushing back on the "RBI are a measure of how good a hitter he is"....

To BE CLEAR.....no one is saying RBI don't matter. No one. Not one person. What some are saying is the RBI are a function of the other hitters around you, and opportunity......and that if you want to know how good a hitter someone is, you should look at other things. 

I remember people saying Mauer wasn't a good hitter because he didn't have enough RBI....when you looked at the stats, he actually hit BETTER with people on base than the bases empty, but he didn't have many opportunities given where he hit in the order, and the hitters in front of him......

No one is saying RBI don't matter. People are saying something totally different than that.....

None of that is aimed at MLR......btw. He and I agree on this, though I guess that would be hard to tell sometimes

Do you like wRC+ or prefer to look at a wider cast of stats?

5 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Trying to understand....are people saying the player should have run through the stop sign the coach put up? That's what people want?

If it is Diaz, yes.   He should not be at third base anyway. He holds fast runners and sends guys like Sano. I think he is terrible. Some have been running through his signs......

I just think Diaz needs replaced. He makes bad decisions. We need a coach there that is creating runs instead of stopping them or sending the slow runners and holding the fast ones. Holding Larnach on that freak wild pitch play was brutal, and cost us a run.

7 hours ago, Dodecahedron said:

Yes, yes.  No one here could have predicted that doing an intentional walk so that you can face Rosario would not work out well.  Nope.  No one.  Total surprise.

If only we had a scouting report on the guy.  It's not like he's on a 12-game hitting streak with a .333 average during that time.  Can anyone pull up his hitting numbers for the past few years, especially late in games where the score is close?  I can't find them.  Analytics is hard, and this guy is very mysterious.

Ah well, sometimes baseball just gets ya!  In totally shocking ways of course.  If only we had a crystal ball or some dang documentation on this hitter.  Bad luck strikes again, I totally side with Baldelli on this one because this Rosario guy just came out of nowhere.  Rosario who?  No one in Twins territory has ever heard of this guy.  I can't find anything about him at all.  We'll get 'em next time!

Thank you. I brought up his last 30, 15 and 7 day average and OBP in the game thread claiming he has been hot..... and received the almighty OPS in response during that period, which was .759 or something (which, btw, is still higher than all but Larnach, Donaldson, and Cruz from yesterday's Twins lineup). Some are posting his OPS for the year here, too, which is in the .600s. I believe the best managers pay more attention to the last week and the more recent sss performance than a yearly stat predictor or career stat. I am not saying Eddie should still be on this team, I am saying that to walk the bases loaded with 1 out to get to pitch to him was a poor decision (screamed in real time, and not hindsight - a double play set up with a runner on first already). Average matters. Singles matter. RBI matter, and they have the element of opportunity, sure, but that is when some players perform, and that is why they have a lot of RBI. 

I believe the ongoing RBI discussion is driven by the statement that "RBI and average are a meaningless and useless stat " and not they, in themselves, are useless or meaningless. Kind of the same thing, but not quite. I will not be a part of the movement to devalue either. Hits are always good, and especially with RISP. Some hit all solo homers, and some hit homers (or singles or doubles etc) with runners on, and runs, in the end, is the most important stat. Scoring them, and not giving them up. 

21 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

You wouldn't consider Kirilloff or Larnach as replacements for Rosario?

Rosario has been good for 10 days.  The rest of the year he has sucked by ever measure except RBI.  He hits 4th and he has played almost every game.  Cleveland has played 72 games or 44.44% of the season which means he is on place for 92 not 100 RBI and that's not even close to the top of the league for a corner OFer.  Add to that the stupid base running mistakes and I am extremely happy to have Larnach or Kirilloff in LF.  Actually, I would prefer to have Rob Refsnyder or Garlick and $10M to spend on free agents it's not even close.  Also, the retort that Larnach and Kirilloff were not on the opening day roster is an absolute failure to accept common sense.  The team knew they were both ready and either one would be available for 90+% of the season.  

8 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

Would you?  Neither of them were on the opening day roster.  Rosario was replaced by Cave and/or Garlick.  Arraez was already here.  

Both in terms of payroll and indirectly on the field, Rosario was essentially replaced by Simmons, who has been mostly a bust. I think it's fair to say they'd have been better off with Rosario in LF and Arreaz/Polanco up the middle.

7 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

Both in terms of payroll and indirectly on the field, Rosario was essentially replaced by Simmons, who has been mostly a bust. I think it's fair to say they'd have been better off with Rosario in LF and Arreaz/Polanco up the middle.

Even If I could convince myself defense does not matter, I would still take Larnach ever day of the week.  With Rosario's recent hot streak he has now produced .2 wins above replacement.  Failure to move on from mediocre players like Rosario is a great recipe for mediocrity or failure.  Ask yourself what Tampa would have do\ne with Rosario and the answer is he would have been gone before this year.

41 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

Bill James first offered up the idea that RBIs are pointless, which caused quite an uproar at the time.  However, James frequently cited RBIs then and he continues to cite them now.  I would say RBIs are a big part of his thinking, actually.  Even if that's not true, to say James does not consider RBIs is just not true.

As always, context is important.  James was pointing out that someone won the MVP award who should not have, apparently based on RBIs alone.  I believe this was Thurman Munson in 1976.  In any case, as sabermetrics took off decades later, James's essay on RBIs was taken out of context. 

James was right.  In Munson's case, if you are batting 3rd on a team that has a team OPS+ of 111, you're going to get 100 RBIs.  RBIs are meaningless in this case.  There were 4 or 5 other players on that team who would have achieved this milestone had they been in the right place in the batting order.

I feel, to assume that a different player would hit the same as said player in the more pressure packed opportunity, is folly. Maybe they would, but so many don't. So many can get hits with no pressure added, and then not deliver when it would count more.

9 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

That sounds like a Bill James quote right there. 

Take a look at the 76 Yankees team.  They were solid, especially for a year that was down offensively.  James pointed out there were at least half a dozen players who were more deserving of the MVP that year.  A straight up sort by bWAR identifies ten.  Munson wasn't even the best player on that squad.

Of course, it could be that baseball writers fell in love with Munson's personality.  

Ha! I have never even heard of Bill James and really don't see his 1976 or so essay as part of the recent discussion here on TD. But thanks for mentioning him. Interesting.

1 hour ago, Dodecahedron said:

Maybe.  I admit I have a Rosario bias.  I would have kept him for another year, if possible, but even I admit his time left in a Twins uniform was running out.  

People keep throwing around that he is not worth $10M.  Fine, but he's not making $10M.  We may as well say he's not worth $100M, which would be correct too.  Some fans decided over the offseason that $10M is what he would cost and did not let later facts budge them from that narrative.  

I don't think that moving on from Rosario was an indefensible move. But some players are worth more than their stats, and he might have been one of them. Since he's having a down year, I wouldn't be opposed to bringing him back on a cheap 1-2 year deal as a roving 4th OF'er and using Larnach/Kepler in the DH spot.

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

Even If I could convince myself defense does not matter, I would still take Larnach ever day of the week.  With Rosario's recent hot streak he has now produced .2 wins above replacement.  Failure to move on from mediocre players like Rosario is a great recipe for mediocrity or failure.  Ask yourself what Tampa would have do\ne with Rosario and the answer is he would have been gone before this year.

I'd take Larnach too, but I don't see that as a binary choice. As long as you're not over-paying him, I don't see how he leads to "mediocrity or failure". They tried to trade him. There was no interest.

12 hours ago, Dodecahedron said:

Maybe.  I admit I have a Rosario bias.  I would have kept him for another year, if possible, but even I admit his time left in a Twins uniform was running out.  

People keep throwing around that he is not worth $10M.  Fine, but he's not making $10M.  We may as well say he's not worth $100M, which would be correct too.  Some fans decided over the offseason that $10M is what he would cost and did not let later facts budge them from that narrative.  

What he got in free agency is absolutely irrelevant.  $10M is a very fair estimate for what he would have got in arbitration which is what he would have cost had we kept him.  Trying to make a case for a guy playing barely above replacement is a product of only see what you want to see.  Bias is a powerful retardant for the accepting the truth even when it's this obvious.  Sorry for the tone but I am sick of hearing about Eddie Rosario when we have two replacements that are both looking like cornerstones for the franchise.  The wisdom in moving on should now be painfully obvious.