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  • Five Key Improvements for 2015


    David Mensing

    The death march to 90 losses for the Minnesota Twins continues today with another doubleheader, this time against the South Side Sox. Sixteen games remain in this frustrating season which produced one, maybe two, rotation pieces and some optimism that the Twins can score enough runs to be competitive.

    My thoughts have shifted to 2015.

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    Taking a quick glance at the numbers and having watched a lot of Twins baseball this year, I have selected five areas where the Twins need improved play and where the possibility exists that there can be improvement.

    1) Joe Mauer--The hometown hero has to return to being an All-Star caliber player. I don't know what it has been, but Mauer has been a shadow of his former self. His batting average is down 50 points, and his OBP almost as much. Some, myself included, expected a bit of a power surge moving to the physically less demanding position of first base and the reverse has happened. We've seen flashes, but no sustained great performance. Mauer has had a Hall-of-Fame career to this point, but this year has been pretty close to dreadful. I think he needs to both adjust and train like he never has before. He has to turn on more pitches, hit more balls over the fence and be stronger. Some have made the point that Mauer rested all off-season, waiting for the concussion symptoms to disappear. If they are gone, he needs to be both stronger and more flexible at 32. I believe it can be done.

    2) Defense--The Strib yesterday pointed out that the Twins defense was ranked 29th out of 30 in some measure. I think that is close to accurate and is almost totally on the outfield defense--and catcher!. There is currently a thread running about the defensive dilemma. I will say that both better athletes and more continuity will move the needle considerably. More reps for Arcia in right field and Santana at whatever position he lands should produce dividends. An improved pitching staff could improve run suppression better than any single defensive change. The crown jewel of the Twins' farm system is a center fielder who could graduate next year and make an immediate defensive impact on the team.

    3) Rotation--The Twins' staff was supposed to be improved this year. Despite a breakthrough for Phil Hughes, it hasn't happened. Supposed reliable innings-eaters have underperformed and been injured. It would be foolish to expect Nolasco, Pelfrey and Milone to all bounce back to be acceptable starters or better next year, but it isn't out of the realm that one or two them returns to better form than they displayed this year. Trevor May and Alex Meyer will get a chance at some time next year. JO Berrios isn't far away either. Better days are ahead, hopefully supervised by a different pitching coach.

    4) Home record--The Twins have won more road games than seven teams who have better records than they do. Where's the "home field advantage"? Part of this is roster construction--Target Field requires speedy outfielders and right-handed power and the Twins haven't had enough of either. Part of that is attitude, I believe. For some reason, the Twins don't seem to be convinced they should win every home game and haven't since 2010. Again, maybe a change in the field staff will instill this attitude

    5) Fundamentals--Know when to take a chance on the bases. Know which base to throw to, and set up and use the cutoff man. When there's a runner on third with less than two out, don't try to hit the ball 500 feet, especially with two strikes. The Twins have fallen off dramatically in all these facets and more, which encompass "fundamentals", and it has cost them on the W-L ledger. Good teams make the right plays at the right time. The talent is there, but the focus sometimes has not been. Again, perhaps a new voice will be able to get through to the players both on how to play hard and be fundamentally sound.

    That's my five areas. I know there are more. As I wrote this, it occurred to me how nice it would be to have someone else calling the shots from the manager's seat. I guess this is my not-to-subtle call to replace the manager as well.

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    I don't see Mauer as a top five problem per se, but I do wonder how many players making $20M in a season fail to ever carry their team on their back for at least some short stretch during a season. We need our best hitter to be someone who looks to hammer a pitch when runners are on base, not look to coax a damn walk.

     

    I'd re-phrase the problem as a situation where we don't have that player- yet. Maybe Arcia can grow into that, as he seems to have a fire in his belly that's been missing from all outward appearances. Or maybe we have to wait for someone like Sano or Buxton.

     

    It is bigger than one player though.  We are 63-87.  If we added Clayton Kershaw (7.63 WAR) and took out Nolasco (-.4 WAR), we would be 70-80 right now.  On pace for 75 wins and 87 losses.

     

    Assuming our CF is replacement level, adding Trout as well (7.76 WAR) would make us 83-79.  Detroit has 84 wins right now wth 12 left.

     

    WAR is not perfect, but it can help us with perspective.

    Edited by tobi0040
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    It is bigger than one player though.  We are 63-87.  If we added Clayton Kershaw (7.63 WAR) and took out Nolasco (-.4 WAR), we would be 70-80 right now.  On pace for 75 wins and 87 losses.

     

    Assuming our CF is replacement level, adding Trout as well (7.76 WAR) would make us 83-79.  Detroit has 84 wins right now wth 12 left.

     

    WAR is not perfect, but it can help us with perspective.

    Of course it's more than one player. That's why the roster will be about 80% turned over by this time next year. And that's a pillar of my argument that an improved Mauer isn't solving a top five problem. It's going to take a corner OF from elsewhere, and probably a young two-way catcher from outside, to supplement Santana, Dozier, Mauer, Vargas, Sano, Arcia, Buxton, and role players like Plouffe, Escobar, Polanco, and Rosario. But what I'm saying is that one or more of these guys has to step up and give us the kind of performance and leadership that every championship club gets from its best player. 

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    Of course it's more than one player. That's why the roster will be about 80% turned over by this time next year. And that's a pillar of my argument that an improved Mauer isn't solving a top five problem. It's going to take a corner OF from elsewhere, and probably a young two-way catcher from outside, to supplement Santana, Dozier, Mauer, Vargas, Sano, Arcia, Buxton, and role players like Plouffe, Escobar, Polanco, and Rosario. But what I'm saying is that one or more of these guys has to step up and give us the kind of performance and leadership that every championship club gets from its best player. 

     

    I guess I misunderstood what you were saying then.  The part about not having the player that can carry us for stretches at a time being a big componenet led to my 1 or 2 player rant.

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    As someone commented earlier, the Twins fundamentals have gone progressively downhill ever since TK left. That's my number one beef with Gardenhire, his toleration of poor play (defense, basepaths) and failure to hold players accountable.

     

    IMO Mauer needs to hit the weight room. I recall early in his career Torii Hunter was quoted as saying "wait till he get's his man muscles". Mauer never did.

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