Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account
  • Falvine Ready To Flex Muscles


    Ted Schwerzler

    The Minnesota Twins made a tough, but necessary move following a 103-loss season a year ago. In firing Terry Ryan, the team that calls Target Field home was going to be the business residence to new front office personnel for the first time in quite a while. Although both Derek Falvey and Thad Levine went through their first offseason with Minnesota last year, it’s now that seems to be the time they can show of their true acumen.

    Image courtesy of © Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

    Twins Video

    Billed as forward thinkers, new-age baseball guys, and numbers focused, Falvey and Levine represent a very new culture for the Twins. We saw that play out more off the field than on it during 2017. With coaches like James Rowson and Jeff Pickler brought aboard, Falvine went young and progressive thinking right out of the gate. Former big league pitcher Jeremy Heffner was added to the organization, and those cut from the same cloth have continued to be called upon. Garvin Alston and Tanner Swanson both seem to be in that category as well.

    Over the course of their organizational additions, Falvey and Levine have continued to display a tendency to follow through on something Levine mentioned during a mid-season Baseball Prospectus event. While the Twins may not outspend the competition on the field, they can find a competitive advantage in how they hire off of it. Beefing up the analytics department, and putting people in place that challenge players and coaches alike seems to be a good strategy. It’s of the same line of thinking that landed Jason Castro with the Twins for 2017. While pitching remains an expensive fix, an adept receiver can raise the overall water level of the pitching staff for a fraction of the cost.

    Heading into what will be their first true offseason, or the one in which they feel comfortable making waves, Twins fans should find excitement in what we’ve been led to believe thus far. There’s a pretty low probability that the hometown nine sign the likes of Shohei Otani or even Yu Darvish, but the fact that they’ve been mentioned in the conversation is nice to see. Rather than looking for the scrap heap additions that can be made from minor league deals, it seems that the front office is aware that the time is now.

    With Minnesota having graduated more than a handful of top prospects, the next phase in a rebuild is to supplement from outside. Pairing young players poised to break into their primes with established veterans is as good a recipe for winning as I can think of. That Falvine took the first year to make sure the correct infrastructure was in place should only further the ability to draw the most out of their on-field decisions.

    Through the GM Meetings, Rule 5 Draft, Winter Meetings, and Free Agency as a whole, it will be worth dissecting what each decision is actually telling us. Rather than wondering what a certain player brings to the Twins, trying to understand what Falvey and Levine see as the play could be just as beneficial. In an uncapped sport with each team having access to the same commodities, it’s on the Twins to continue to carve out a competitive advantage. Whether or not we know now that Falvey has his sights set on the next Corey Kluber, trying to understand the thought process is half of the excitement.

    Indirectly, we’ve been told an incredible amount by the Twins new front office over the course of their first year. While the moves have not been plentiful, the process has been put in motion to bear fruit at a very respectable rate. In a thinking man’s game, it’s hard not to be on board with what seems like a brain trust that is aimed toward sustainability as opposed to immediacy.

    Ideally, I’d love to see the Twins open 2018 with names like Darvish, Santana, Cobb, Lynn and Shaw on their roster. Not knowing what will take place however, I’m equally excited to embark fully upon an offseason that has the chance to be one of the most intriguing in Twins franchise history. Smart people generally surround themselves with those who will challenge them, and help the overall growth of an organization. It’s fair to suggest that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have accomplished that, and the next question is; where do they go from here?

    MORE FROM TWINS DAILY
    — Latest Twins coverage from our writers
    — Recent Twins discussion in our forums
    — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
    — Become a Twins Daily Caretaker

     Share


    User Feedback

    Recommended Comments



    Featured Comments

     

    Losing Jaime Garcia for the rest of 2017 was more than made up by Bartolo Colon.

    I know others may laugh and point and mock, but there is a part of me that would love to see Colon come back.  Maybe as a long reliever with an occasional spot start?

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    It's as simple as, a team doesn't go from in contention, to not in contention, in 6 days in the middle of the season.

    It was a strange sequence of decisions. They hit a moment of truth and waffled and punted. Made Terry Ryan look committed and decisive!

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    It's as simple as, a team doesn't go from in contention, to not in contention, in 6 days in the middle of the season.

    maybe there are more data points that go into the decision other than contention

    Also, the term "contention" is a fuzzy one. A great many arguments arise from people assigning different meanings to words. Maybe Falvey and Levine had in mind some threshold, like 10% odds of reaching the post-season, and decided to make a middling move such as for Garcia. A mere 6 days later, the same calculation looked more like 4% to them, and they went with their convictions.

     

    Chief likes Texas Hold 'Em. I'm sure he's had plenty of hands where his first two cards were worth betting but then he rightly folded when the flop came down, and then (against the odds) exactly the right turn card came which would have made the hand worth seeing through after all. Unlike poker, baseball doesn't require (or allow) you to completely fold, on the other hand after a certain point not very near the end you can't make meaningful additional bets. But under baseball-like rules, maybe you'd like to re-open that folded poker hand and pay to see the river card. I don't know poker well enough to construct a very good analogy, but that's how I see it. Each card that gets played gives you new information and new odds. That one week in July, five very poor "cards" were revealed to the Twins and they took a little bit out of the pot. It happened that the remaining cards for the rest of the season were a lot better. That's cards; that's baseball.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Argh, in poker you don't pay to try to obtain better cards, you pay to go to the next reveal. Not to mention that all players' cards are more or less face up in baseball - no one is wondering "maybe the Twins have Mike Trout". :) So it's not a good analogy, and I give up on that.

     

    But the point is the improved information at each reveal and a revised estimate of your chances - that's where there's a similarity, and where there can be a sudden turn for the worse in your calculation of your chances that (later on with hindsight) turns out not to be decisive after all. You still have to make your decision at the time, with much still uncertain. And if the decision at one stage is close, the next card will easily reverse that decision.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

     

    Yeah but that's only because of that time your wife talked you into 37 for a Power Ball Number when your heart was screaming 29.

     

    As a result... when you go out with your wife to Chili's for Supper. You decide that you will have the Guacamole Burger around 3PM and you start looking forward to it. 

     

    You finally get to Chili's with your lovely wife and the server tells you about the Endless Mix and Match Ribs special for less than the price of the Guacamole Burger. You look around the restaurant and you see incredible looking ribs everywhere and you almost order them... but then you remember the Power Ball number thing and you decide that it is best to stay with the original plan through hell or high water and you order the Guacamole Burger that you have been looking forward to for the past 3 hours.  

     

    The burger ends up being OK but your wife was making multiple "These are delicious comments" while enjoying the endless ribs. 

     

    You could have had those ribs but the Power Ball number ended up being 28 and 29 would have been damn close.  

     

     

     

    I give them credit... It takes a special kind of pluck to change your mind out of necessity in front of many people who will claim a lack of confidence because of the indecision.  

     

    Those who can't change their minds... can't change anything. 

     

    a normal male would eat a few of his wife's endless ribs when no one is looking... just sayin...

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Let me fumble through this Texas Holdem poker analogy...

     

    After the All Star break, every team got to peek at the flop (difficulty of schedule). The Twins were scheduled to play Houston, the Yankees, and the Dodgers, also Detroit and Oakland. Those are tough cards to play. 

     

    But even before peeking at the flop and playing the flop, every team also got a very quick peek at the turn and river and burn cards, too. That is the "difficulty of schedule after the All Star Break trade deadline" cards. Those last two cards looked much more playable for the Twins, and didn't match the hands as well for the other teams. 

     

    While the Twins were getting swept against the Dodgers in late July, the Royals were winning 9 straight games against the Tigers and the White Sox.

     

    You might say that the Royals win streak bluffed the Twins front office out of the card game. I certainly feel that way. 

    Edited by Hosken Bombo Disco
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Also, the term "contention" is a fuzzy one. A great many arguments arise from people assigning different meanings to words. Maybe Falvey and Levine had in mind some threshold, like 10% odds of reaching the post-season, and decided to make a middling move such as for Garcia. A mere 6 days later, the same calculation looked more like 4% to them, and they went with their convictions.

     

    Chief likes Texas Hold 'Em. I'm sure he's had plenty of hands where his first two cards were worth betting but then he rightly folded when the flop came down, and then (against the odds) exactly the right turn card came which would have made the hand worth seeing through after all. Unlike poker, baseball doesn't require (or allow) you to completely fold, on the other hand after a certain point not very near the end you can't make meaningful additional bets. But under baseball-like rules, maybe you'd like to re-open that folded poker hand and pay to see the river card. I don't know poker well enough to construct a very good analogy, but that's how I see it. Each card that gets played gives you new information and new odds. That one week in July, five very poor "cards" were revealed to the Twins and they took a little bit out of the pot. It happened that the remaining cards for the rest of the season were a lot better. That's cards; that's baseball.

    one major difference: baseball GMs get to change the cards they hold during the game. They get to add to, or subtract from the roster.

     

    I still don't think the Twins playoff chances changed significantly because of a rough series in LA. If they were adding before that, they shouldn't be subtracting after

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    The Kintzler trade was not a bad thing. The Twins ended up with a 20 year old with some upside and money to get another player. For Kintzler it was a legitimate shot for a deep playoff run. With or without Kintzler the Twins playoff run was destined to be short.  

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    It's also possible that they acquired Jaime Garcia in mind knowing the possibility that they would move him (pay his salary and obtain a better return) was very high.  The Twins scuffled at the same time the Indians and the Royals (who faded down the stretch) got very hot.   I doubt its a case of the Falvey/Levine changing their minds about the Twins ability to contend, so much as certain contingency came about which they had anticipated and made good on. 

     

    Swapping Ynoa for Little and Enns, acquired two near ready arms for one not ready anytime soon arm.  That outcome wasn't possible without Jaime Garcia and his salary--regardless of the Twins likelihood of contention at the time of either move.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

     

    Also, the term "contention" is a fuzzy one. A great many arguments arise from people assigning different meanings to words. Maybe Falvey and Levine had in mind some threshold, like 10% odds of reaching the post-season, and decided to make a middling move such as for Garcia. A mere 6 days later, the same calculation looked more like 4% to them, and they went with their convictions.

     

    Chief likes Texas Hold 'Em. I'm sure he's had plenty of hands where his first two cards were worth betting but then he rightly folded when the flop came down, and then (against the odds) exactly the right turn card came which would have made the hand worth seeing through after all. Unlike poker, baseball doesn't require (or allow) you to completely fold, on the other hand after a certain point not very near the end you can't make meaningful additional bets. But under baseball-like rules, maybe you'd like to re-open that folded poker hand and pay to see the river card. I don't know poker well enough to construct a very good analogy, but that's how I see it. Each card that gets played gives you new information and new odds. That one week in July, five very poor "cards" were revealed to the Twins and they took a little bit out of the pot. It happened that the remaining cards for the rest of the season were a lot better. That's cards; that's baseball.

     

    At the All Star Break

     

    Twins: 8C 8H

    Rays:  AH 10D

    Royals: JD 9D

    Rangers: KS 2S

    Angels: 10H 7D

    Mariners: 9H 4D

     

    The Flop Was 6H 5H 4C a week later

     

    The Twins made a small bet

     

    The Turn was a jack of clubs a week after that

     

    The Twins Checked

     

    The Riverbrian was 7 of Spades a month after that

     

    We hit a gut shot

     

    GUT SHOT BABY!!!! 

     

     

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    At the All Star Break

     

    Twins: 8C 8H

    Rays: AH 10D

    Royals: JD 9D

    Rangers: KS 2S

    Angels: 10H 7D

    Mariners: 9H 4D

     

    The Flop Was 6H 5H 4C a week later

     

    The Twins made a small bet

     

    The Turn was a jack of clubs a week after that

     

    The Twins Checked

     

    The Riverbrian was 7 of Spades a month after that

     

    We hit a gut shot

     

    GUT SHOT BABY!!!!

    Twins had the best hand preflop, best hand after the flop. Should have pushed all in!
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

     

    Twins had the best hand preflop, best hand after the flop. Should have pushed all in!

    And this demonstrates why I didn't even bother constructing sample hands. :)

     

    Next analogy I'm working on: Hannibal crossing the Alps. It'll be a good one, if I can just work out a couple of pesky final details about what elephants eat. Stay tuned.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

     

    They went too light in their offseason additions and were too cautious at the deadline. At the very least they could have held.

    It wasn't a travesty, but they were wrong evaluating their talent relative to the league at all points so far.

    I'm optimistic about a good offseason, but that is based more on hope and a general trusting of their process, not based on anything they have actually done with the roster.

    I guess I see your point but disagree that the front office was wrong in anything but results. Even if you expected an 85 win team to make the postseason (and expecting every team to essentially collapse in one variety or another), the Twins were pretty unlikely to reach that very modest win total (a total that usually leaves your team 2-3 games out of the second WC spot).

     

    And, to me, what matters is process. You can't predict anomalous results so you go with the numbers. Going with the numbers may result in minor losses over the short term but in the long term, you'll come out ahead.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

     

    I guess I see your point but disagree that the front office was wrong in anything but results. Even if you expected an 85 win team to make the postseason (and expecting every team to essentially collapse in one variety or another), the Twins were pretty unlikely to reach that very modest win total (a total that usually leaves your team 2-3 games out of the second WC spot).

     

    And, to me, what matters is process. You can't predict anomalous results so you go with the numbers. Going with the numbers may result in minor losses over the short term but in the long term, you'll come out ahead.

     

    Sure, and I understand this position.

     

    I really thought they should have aimed higher in the offseason for a better reliever and I thought they should have done a soft add at the deadline. If you do little and stay conservative it does become a self-fulfilling plan. Even if they wouldn't have made the playoffs at 85 wins, which is a not unreasonable position to have, I would argue there was benefit to have the young guys play meaningful games until the end of the year as they attempt to build on it going forward. There was no reason to buy hard, and I wasn't especially offended by the Garcia transactions, but the Kintzler trade seemed so pointless.

     

    I'm actually quite impressed they didn't go sideways after selling at the deadline. If they had kind of went in the tank, especially by blowing 3-4 late games out of the deadline, it would have been a missed opportunity.

     

    To me it wasn't just the results, I thought there was secondary gain to be had by having competitive games through the end of the season. And I don't think the modest gain of the Kintzler trade was enough to potentially sacrifice that. And I would have reinforced that potential gain with a modest buy.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Falvey's objective is to build a sustainable, championship-caliber team season after season. People seem to be under the impression that World Series appearances are a given--False. Don't count on the Yankees, Red Sox, Indians and other teams folding up when they see what a great process the Twins are following.

     

    Even during these future glory years, the Twins will many times find themselves playing for a wild card berth anyway.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Houston and Cleveland had the best hands and it wasn't even close.

    The post in question had zero to do with Clevelanf or Houston. It referenced the Twins and 5 other wild card contenders.

     

    And said post gave the Twins pockets 8s, which was the best hand pre flop, and ended up winning the pot, as the best hand preflop often does.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

     

    The post in question had zero to do with Clevelanf or Houston. It referenced the Twins and 5 other wild card contenders.

    And said post gave the Twins pockets 8s, which was the best hand pre flop, and ended up winning the pot, as the best hand preflop often does.

    I merely pointed out the fatal flaw in the whole line of thinking.  The game had other players

     

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    I think this offseason will tell us a lot about the new FO but I don't think we can give them a lot of credit for what they've done so far. Some credit, sure.

    Yeah. Most of the changes they’ve made are either hard to quantify (coaching changes/additions) or won’t impact the MLB team for years (the draft).
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

     

    I really thought they should have aimed higher in the offseason for a better reliever and I thought they should have done a soft add at the deadline. 

    I absolutely agree with the bolded. It would have made the latter unnecessary, too.

     

    At least it would have made a "soft add" unnecessary. The Twins would likely have been in the driver's seat for the second Wild Card (maybe even the first Wild Card) had they picked up a quality reliever, which would only have set them back $8m a season for 2-3 seasons.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

     

    In a very short period of time.

     

    They showed me that they are willing to support a team worth supporting and willing to rebuild a team worth rebuilding. 

     

    After the year after year of my foot has fallen asleep trade deadlines under Terry Ryan and staff.

     

    How this can be seen by anyone as anything other than refreshing is beyond me.  

     

    I have been in enough board room meetings to recognize something that would come up and be heavily discussed/scrutinized. Buying and then selling within a few days of one another would be one of those things.

     

    But it's a learning process. They will learn to not have these knee jerk reactions in the future. If they are truly not sure if they are ready to buy, they won't. And they certainly won't sell after a bad road series against the best team in the NL a few days later.

     

    Would Ryan buy/sell so quickly? No, he would just sell or do nothing. :P But is "different" necessarily better? Of course not. Buying followed by selling is the same as doing nothing!

    Edited by Doomtints
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

     

    I'm optimistic this offseason, but the front office really hasn't shown much other than the ability to continually underestimate and misjudge the talent on the roster relative to the rest of the league.

    Can you share specific examples with the board? Off hand, I can't think of one.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

     

    They went too light in their offseason additions and were too cautious at the deadline. At the very least they could have held.

    It wasn't a travesty, but they were wrong evaluating their talent relative to the league at all points so far.

    I'm optimistic about a good offseason, but that is based more on hope and a general trusting of their process, not based on anything they have actually done with the roster.

    This is simply not true and do you really believe you have the time and expertise necessary to judge our favorite team vs. the rest of the league?   Easy to say, impossible to prove.

    Edited by howieramone2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

     

    This is simply not true and do you really believe you have the time and expertise necessary to judge our favorite team vs. the rest of the league?   Easy to say, impossible to prove.

    I do think it's fair to argue that the Twins FO underestimated its chances when it moved Kintzler, for example. I like Tyler Watson but it's not like he's an elite prospect. He's probably not in our top 20. And for that, the FO saved a few bucks for ownership and ran up the white flag. I think it's fair to criticize them for that.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites




    Join the conversation

    You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
    Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

    Guest
    Add a comment...

    ×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

      Only 75 emoji are allowed.

    ×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

    ×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

    ×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

    Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...