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Pre-arbitration extensions have been pretty popular around the league. There have been eight such deals in baseball since the end of the winter meetings. Though the Twins, who have a whole nucleus of players that fit in that pre-arb category, were not one of those teams.
That should change with Sano.
Currently, Sano is a 1+ player, which means that he’ll be a pre-arbitration (near minimum) player again in 2018. He’ll enter his first of three arbitration years in 2019 and will first be eligible to be a free agent after the 2021 season.
Looking specifically at deals of players with 1+ year of experience, we need to look no further to find one than the most recent extension that was signed: The Cardinals and outfielder Stephen Piscotty. The two parties entered into an agreement that will earn Piscotty $1 million in each of the 2017 and 2018 seasons. He will earn $7 million in each of his first two scheduled arbitration years and $7.25 in what would be his final arbitration year and his first free agent season. The Cardinals hold an option at $15 million for the 2023 season with a $1 million buyout. Piscotty also got a $2 million signing bonus and is three years older than Sano. The formatting of this deal - the large jump into arbitration and the small jump into free agency - is definitely unique. He also was given a $2 million signing bonus. His guarantee is $32.5 million over the six years that begin next season.
We can look further though to see, perhaps, a better comparison: Christian Yelich of the Marlins. Yelich was 24 when he signed his deal, a year older than Sano is currently. Yelich also holds an advantage in bWAR, both career-wise and in head-to-head seasons. Any potential deal should probably follow the Yelich framework. Scheduled to receive $570,000 and $1 million in his final two pre-arb years, Yelich will get a big bump during his arbitration years, earning $3.5 million, $7 million and $9.75 million. His first two free agent years are bought out at $12 million and $14 million. Then there is a team option for $15 million with a $1.25 million buyout. All told, Yelich is guaranteed $49 million from his 2+ year through two years of free agency plus an option (seven years).
Using those two as models, what would an offer to Sano potentially look like?
It would be fair to assume that the bump he’ll receive in his final pre-arb year (‘18) will be $1 million. Piscotty’s deal gives a significant bump in the first year of arbitration, but not the first year of free agency, which makes Yelich’s a more believable model.
Looking at the Twins pre-arb extensions, they’ve used even jumps from arbitration years to the next. (Span was $1.75m and Dozier was $3m.) Using $3 million as a good starting point with $3.5 million increases, Sano would make $3 million, $6.5 million and $10 million.
The part that I will always feel the Twins screwed up with Dozier’s deal was not buying out any free agent years. The Twins can’t make that mistake with Sano.
Though the Marlins got two years of Yelich plus an option, I’m not going to suggest the Twins do the same with Sano. Mostly because I don’t think his reps would go for it. But my contention has always been that the tradeoff of cost-certainty for the team and guaranteed money for a young player isn’t fair. There has to be an added benefit for the team. And that comes in the form of a free agent year and a team option.
The $12 million that Yelich is getting for his first free agent year is fair and the $15 million option that the teams are getting on both players are getting is also fair. As an added bonus for Sano, the team’s buyout will be $2.5 million, increasing the guarantee.
Here’s the breakdown:
2018: $1 million
2019: $3 million (would be first arbitration year)
2020: $6.5 million
2021: $10 million
2022: $12 million (would be first free agent year)
2023: $15 million or $2.5 million buyout
Six years and $35 million.
Would you?
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