Examining Arbitration-Eligible Players

Tomorrow we’ll examine all the pre-arbitration players. Today, we’re going to focus only on the arbitration-eligible players. Unlike the pre-arbitration players, who all make the minimum or near the minimum, you have to weigh how much these players - who are eligible for arbitration and whose salaries are yet to be decided - are worth in regards to salary to the organization.

40-MAN SITUATION

The Twins currently have 38 players on their 40-man roster with two players on the 60-day disabled list that will need to be reinstated. Kurt Suzuki is the only pending free agent, so as the roster currently stands the Twins essentially go into the off-season with only one open roster spot.

5+ PLAYERS (will be free agents following the 2017 season)

Trevor Plouffe, 3B. Plouffe is entering his fourth (thanks to being a Super 2 player) and final year of arbitration and stands to make around $10 million. Plouffe is currently the 11th highest-paid third baseman ($7.25m) and there are eight third baseman currently under contract for $10m or more next season. With both Miguel Sano and Jorge Polanco under control for around 5% each of what Plouffe would make, it would make no sense to tender Plouffe a contract (unless they’re positive they could trade him). The Twins should shop Plouffe aggressively as soon as the World Series concludes, knowing that he has to be removed from the roster one or the other before they have to add players to their roster.

Hector Santiago, LSP. The Twins worked out a deadline deal to acquire Santiago and included money so their financial impact - if they keep Santiago - would remain unchanged. Doing some simple subtraction indicates that the Twins expect Santiago to cost between $8-9m in his final year of arbitration. While Santiago should be tendered a contract, the Twins - with their new GM hopefully leading the charge - should go to the Winter Meetings knowing how bare the pitching market is and listen to any and all offers on Santiago. The likelihood, though, is that Santiago will be wearing a Twins uniform when next April rolls around.

Brandon Kintzler, RP. Kintzler will probably fail to make $1m this year as the team’s primary closer, but saves do matter when it comes to the arbitration process. Kintzler will be an interesting case, but he shouldn’t see his salary increase more than a couple million dollars. It would make sense to keep him around at that price. (I would be shopping him aggressively now through this winter, without a doubt.) Hopefully the new GM doesn’t buy into the old strategy of extending players like this, because Kintzler fits that mold perfectly. But at a couple million dollars, he’s a bargain.

4-5 PLAYERS (will be free agents after the 2018 season)

Tommy Milone, LSP. Now that Milone is hurt and can’t do anything for his already barren trade value, he’ll enter September as a member of the organization. And then he’ll enter the off-season on the roster. And then the Twins should non-tender him. He’d be in line to make around $7m (and that’s not far off from a back-end guy in the market), but he’s as fungible as they come.

Eduardo Escobar, SS. Escobar could get a jump to between $3-4m and the Twins will make him that guarantee. I’m not sure there would be a market for him that would return great value if the Twins called around looking to move him, but you don’t find guys that can play shortstop and have a decent bat just walking around the street. I’ll pencil him into the utility role, knowing he can be an everyday shortstop if needed.

3-4 PLAYERS (first-year arbitration-eligible)

Kyle Gibson, SP. There’s the really good Gibson and the really bad Gibson, but not really any in-between Gibson. Of course, the Kyle Gibson that pitched in Atlanta on Wednesday night was really good and the Twins don’t have an abundance of pitchers that can be really good. He’ll probably cost at least $4m in his first year or arbitration (and he’s a great extension candidate) but, without a question, the Twins need to commit to him.

Ryan Pressly, RP. Pressly has demonstrated some nasty stuff and has been both durable and reliable this season. He isn’t likely to make more than $1m this upcoming season, so there’s no reason to jettison him.

CONCLUSION

If this scenario played out, the Twins would only add two additional openings (Plouffe and Milone) to the roster.

What would you do with the arbitration-eligible players?