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  • Every Team Wants Zack Wheeler


    Cody Christie

    Zack Wheeler is one of the most sought after free agents this off-season and there will be not shortage of teams interested in his services. Minnesota has been connected to Wheeler, but there is no guarantee that he will wind up in a Twins uniform. Let’s dive into the Wheeler market and see what could separate the Twins from his other offers.

    Image courtesy of © Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

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    Minnesota’s Advantages

    The Twins certainly seem to be on the cusp of something big with a rising young core and other supplemental veteran pieces. Last season, the team had a historically good offense and better pitching could have been the difference between a first-round exit and a long playoff run. Minnesota has Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi penciled into the rotation and this could be intriguing to perspective pitchers.

    Wheeler could view the Twins as launching point for the rest of his career. He could sign a short-term deal for a significant amount of money to help build his value. He won’t turn 30 until next May and some pitchers continue pitch well into their mid- to late-30s. Wheeler could improve himself in Minnesota before moving onto another club.

    Other Team’s Advantages

    Minnesota hasn’t made it out of the first round of the playoff since 2002 so a pitcher might want to sign on with a different team to have the opportunity move further into the playoffs. Also, the Twins don’t exactly have a lot of starting pitching depth at this point. There are plenty of minor league pitchers that earned opportunities last season, but there weren’t any pitchers that proved they should be guaranteed a rotation spot.

    The American League Central Division is also at a crossroads after dominating years from the Cleveland Indians. Cleveland won three consecutive division titles on the heels of a Kansas City World Series title and four straight Detroit division titles. Minnesota had been irrelevant for most of the decade and this might not exactly attract free agent arms to the Twin Cities.

    Free Agent Fit

    There are much bigger names on the free agent market like Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg. While the other teams are fighting over those two pitchers, the Twins could sweep in and sign Wheeler. Cole and Strasburg are coming off historically good seasons and they will get paid like front-line starters. However, Wheeler might not be seen as on the same level and this could allow other teams to sign him for a lesser value.

    According to reports, the Twins have already begun discussions with Wheeler and his camp. Wheeler averaged a career-high 96.1 mph with his fastball, and this helped him to collect nearly 200 strikeouts and a career-high 3.9 strikeout-to-walk ratio. With the help of Minnesota’s coaches, he might be able to make the next step and become an All-Star caliber pitcher.

    His strikeout percentage was lower than pitchers like Jose Berrios, Zack Greinke, and Hyun-Jin Ryu, but all of those players made an All-Star appearance. Fangraphs believes his fastball has more potential because of its horizontal break and his slider is also has room to grown. The potential is there for Wheeler to become the ace of a staff or at minimum, supplement the other pitchers that are already at the top of a rotation.

    Is Wheeler someone the Twins like well enough to outbid other teams? Would Wheeler be willing to come to Minnesota? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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    Wheeler chose Philly. That's where my daughter lives. Her fiance commutes an hour each day to work in New Jersey, where Wheeler's wife's family lives.

     

    You can decide to believe money was the only factor Wheeler considered. You can decide that the Twins should have stunned him with an offer Wheeler could not refuse. You can decide location had nothing to do with his decision.

     

    Evidence suggests NYY, TEX, NYM were out of the running before the Twins, who were apparently eliminated about the same time as CWS were. CIN missed out too.

     

    You can decide the Twins were low bidders. You can decide they were cheap and low-balled Wheeler just to create the false appearance that they tried.

     

    I'm looking forward to hearing all of these criticisms.  :D

     

    Cute side story for the signing. Makes you wonder if they offered 5/$100, and he had another offer of 5/$120 from the Reds, would he have accepted?

     

    All I know is this morning Buster Olney published the Phillies are seen as TOP BIDDER for Zack Wheeler. 

     

    But hey, what do I know? 

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    sorry again for not knowing to how to post tweets.

     

    from ken rosenthal: 

     

    #WhiteSox’s offer to Wheeler was for MORE than the $118M he will receive from the #Phillies, sources tell The Athletic. As @MarcCarig said, Wheeler’s wife is from New Jersey, and that proximity was an important consideration in his decision.

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    darren wolfson via mlbtraderumors:

     

    Meanwhile, Darren Wolfson of 1500 SKOR North in Minneapolis tweets that the Twins, too, made a five-year offer to Wheeler and that money wasn’t the ultimate factor in rejecting that bid.

     

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    sorry again for not knowing to how to post tweets.

     

    from ken rosenthal: 

     

    #WhiteSox’s offer to Wheeler was for MORE than the $118M he will receive from the #Phillies, sources tell The Athletic. As @MarcCarig said, Wheeler’s wife is from New Jersey, and that proximity was an important consideration in his decision.

     

    I've got a plan to make this start working in the Twins favor.

     

    Minnesota needs to start producing more baseball wives. How about Target Field hosts a singles mixer for the away players the first night of every series?

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    Hamels is also gone now. Cole and Strasburg will go to east coast and west coast teams. Madbum and Ryu are there best chances, but with how many were in on Wheeler, I'd say Twins will get smoked on them as well. 

     

    Thanks Dougie for the tweet backing up the Twins. I will wait to hear LaVelle's as well patting them on the back for "trying". LOL

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    Thanks Dougie for the tweet backing up the Twins. I will wait to hear LaVelle's as well patting them on the back for "trying". LOL

     

    yes, the fact that wheeler wanted to stay near new jersey and turned down more money from the white sox to do so, clearly shows that the twins didn't do enough to sign him.  perhaps they should have offered $30 mil a year to try and change his mind?

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    yes, the fact that wheeler wanted to stay near new jersey and turned down more money from the white sox to do so, clearly shows that the twins didn't do enough to sign him.  perhaps they should have offered $30 mil a year to try and change his mind?

     

    "He was asking too much", "We tried", "He didn't want to play here", "He wanted to stay closer to home"

     

    Carl's ghost thanks you and is in your corner. 

     

    What will they say when Madbum turns them down?

     

     

     

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    Yah those were superstar pitchers....except for year 1 of Santana.

    2014 Phil Hughes Threw 209 innings, struck out 186 and walked 16. 11.63 strike out to walk ratio. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2210967-twins-phil-hughes-sets-mlb-record-for-strikeout-to-walk-ratio-in-a-season

     

    Lance Lynn was poor for the Twins, however was fantastic for the Rangers https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/8/13/20803129/lance-lynn-texas-rangers-american-league-cy-young-leader

     

    Joe Mauer was an extension but still 184 mil.

     

    It is false that the Twins don’t sign high end free agents.

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    I've got a plan to make this start working in the Twins favor.

     

    Minnesota needs to start producing more baseball wives. How about Target Field hosts a singles mixer for the away players the first night of every series?

     

    "Are you saying my daughter is not good enough to be a baseball wife?" - Farmer in Waseca, MN

     

    1ohflg.jpg

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    2014 Phil Hughes Threw 209 innings, struck out 186 and walked 16. 11.63 strike out to walk ratio. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2210967-twins-phil-hughes-sets-mlb-record-for-strikeout-to-walk-ratio-in-a-season

    Lance Lynn was poor for the Twins, however was fantastic for the Rangers https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/8/13/20803129/lance-lynn-texas-rangers-american-league-cy-young-leader

    Joe Mauer was an extension but still 184 mil.

    It is false that the Twins don’t sign high end free agents.

     

    The season before signing with the Twins, Phil Hughes pitched to a 5.19 ERA in 145 innings. I'd scratch that example from the high end free agent report. 

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    Ken Rosenthal reports that Wheeler turned down a more lucrative offer from the White Sox, because he and his wife wanted to be near her family in New Jersey. No word on the dollar figure offered by the Twins.

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    Hamels is also gone now. Cole and Strasburg will go to east coast and west coast teams. Madbum and Ryu are there best chances, but with how many were in on Wheeler, I'd say Twins will get smoked on them as well. 

     

    Thanks Dougie for the tweet backing up the Twins. I will wait to hear LaVelle's as well patting them on the back for "trying". LOL

     

    Geez, how'd Wolfson get the Rangers, Astros, White Sox and Ken Rosenthal to all get in on this con?

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    "Are you saying my daughter is not good enough to be a baseball wife?" - Farmer in Waseca, MN

     

    1ohflg.jpg

     

    Hold on to this contact Van. I was honestly worried about getting Bumgarner to Minnesota because he strikes me as a Dukes of Hazard kind of guy. You might have a trump card here though. Any idea if his daughter's Daisy Dukes are store bought or hand crafted?

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    If I'm being honest, I'm ready for the Twins to pay someone stupid money - be it Wheeler or someone else.

     

    The reality is that they're going to have to overpay. Minnesota isn't a glamorous destination, so it's going to take something extra to do it. And I actually don't even care if it doesn't pan out, It would suck if it didn't, but I just want to see that they're willing to spend the money and take an actual risk to get someone to come here that isn't battling injuries or on the back 9 of their career.

     

    It's great that they're "in the running" on some of these guys, but as a fan it's tough to spend my money on them when they seemingly don't want to spend theirs on the product they're putting on the field.

     

    Why do you want to see that they will pay whatever it takes. What proof do you have that this practice will result in success for a team that profiles (in terms of revenue) like the twins. Show me two examples of teams with equal or less revenue where they signed a FA starting pitcher to 5 or more years at $100M+ and went on to make it to the world series. Not win, just make it. There is a lot of protest here based on an assumption this would result in success.

     

    Prove it! Show me a team that has done it in the last 20 years.

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    Why do you want to see that they will pay whatever it takes. What proof do you have that this practice will result in success for a team that profiles (in terms of revenue) like the twins. Show me two examples of teams with equal or less revenue where they signed a FA starting pitcher to 5 or more years at $100M+ and went on to make it to the world series. Not win, just make it. There is a lot of protest here based on an assumption this would result in success.

     

    Prove it! Show me a team that has done it in the last 20 years.

     

     

    This team, according to you on other posts, should be signing a big time pitcher this year. So I'm not sure what you are arguing here.

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    criticisms in the eyes of some.

    Just like we'll see what are considered excuses by others.

    It's another failure to address the pitching, if you ask me. "Circumstances" matter not, in the end.

     

     

    Chief, they didn't fail to address the pitching. They were outbid for one free agent, and one who was the beneficiary of the most interest of any free agent in the market.

     

    In the end, they will deserve criticism if they fail to address pitching. But not for missing out on Wheeler. Fairness requires consideration of the circumstances. Consideration and excusing are not the same thing.

     

    Let's talk in mid-February and hope we're happy campers. I do understand the skepticism. Honest.

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    i don't know how to post tweets or i would, but marc craig at the athletic tweeted that wheeler signed with the phillies and specifically mentioned staying near new jersey where wheeler's wife is from.

     

    seems to me, that's a non-monetary consideration.

    Sure. That and the 5/118 that the Phillies gave him. Rumor has it that only the White Sox offered more.

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    Ken Rosenthal reports that Wheeler turned down a more lucrative offer from the White Sox, because he and his wife wanted to be near her family in New Jersey. No word on the dollar figure offered by the Twins.

    Maybe the Sox went 5/120 and he still went with the Phillies. I bet the Twins, like many teams were in the 5/90 - 5/100 range. Not that it would ever happen, or that it should happen, but if the Twins (or any team) offered 5/140-150, his wife would have been okay with it.

     

    Take the "wife" stuff in context and with a grain of salt.

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    "He was asking too much", "We tried", "He didn't want to play here", "He wanted to stay closer to home"

     

    Carl's ghost thanks you and is in your corner. 

     

    What will they say when Madbum turns them down?

     

     

    Let's get you prepared to do even MORE lamenting:

     

    MLB TradeRumors projected MadBum to fetch $72M in a frothy market, and now the tweets are swirling around that stupid money will find him for something over $100M.

     

    So yeah, I gotta hunch Falvey has a lower number on the spreadsheet by MadBum's name and will look elsewhere.

     

    Not an excuse or a criticism here. I defer to others for that.

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    Let's get you prepared to do even MORE lamenting:

     

    MLB TradeRumors projected MadBum to fetch $72M in a frothy market, and now the tweets are swirling around that stupid money will find him foe something over $100M.

     

    So yeah, I gotta hunch Falvey has a lower number on the spreadsheet by MadBum's name and will look elsewhere.

     

    Not an excuse or a criticism here. I defer to others for that.

     

    LOL.

     

    I've just seen it for too many years. We all watched the last core of great Twins turn into nothing but a few division championships and playoff sweeps.

     

    We saw the core before that turn in one playoff series win. All the while they protected their pocketbooks and prospects and just ended up with a bunch of losing sandwiched between those division titles. 

     

    I prefer to go for it. We all know the time is now. Why not us?

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    This team, according to you on other posts, should be signing a big time pitcher this year. So I'm not sure what you are arguing here.

     

    Yes. I do believe the Twins are positioned to acquire a top SP without creating a situation where the team can’t be kept together as the cost of some of the key players increases. (Berrios / Sano / Buxton / Garver / Rodgers and perhaps even Duffy) I gave some specifics on that a couple weeks ago.

     

    Wheeler was the guy I wanted so I am disappointed. However, my point of contention here is that a fair number of posters subscribe to the do it any cost philosophy. It’s unrealistic and exceptionally poor management practice. His price is already so high it becomes quite questionable to match the Phillies much less “blow him away” with something beyond that amount.

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    Maybe the Sox went 5/120 and he still went with the Phillies. I bet the Twins, like many teams were in the 5/90 - 5/100 range. Not that it would ever happen, or that it should happen, but if the Twins (or any team) offered 5/140-150, his wife would have been okay with it.

     

    Take the "wife" stuff in context and with a grain of salt.

    I'm just reporting what Rosenthal said. I think it's perfectly plausible and likely that Wheeler gives a crap what his wife thinks. 

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    LOL.

     

    I've just seen it for too many years. We all watched the last core of great Twins turn into nothing but a few division championships and playoff sweeps.

     

    We saw the core before that turn in one playoff series win. All the while they protected their pocketbooks and prospects and just ended up with a bunch of losing sandwiched between those division titles. 

     

    I prefer to go for it. We all know the time is now. Why not us?

     

    You are not alone. Many fans subscribe to the push all in theory and there were more GMs in the past who subscribed albeit to a lesser degree. The new breed of baseball executive has a background that precludes this type of immediate term decision making. They are paid to sustain success. We don't expect players to accept less pay when the team is bad so we should not expect teams to manage in a manner that will lead to bad teams in the future.

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    LOL.

     

    I've just seen it for too many years. We all watched the last core of great Twins turn into nothing but a few division championships and playoff sweeps.

     

    We saw the core before that turn in one playoff series win. All the while they protected their pocketbooks and prospects and just ended up with a bunch of losing sandwiched between those division titles. 

     

    I prefer to go for it. We all know the time is now. Why not us?

     

     

    I feel your pain, pal. I cried into my morning Wheaties in 1965 because of Sandy Koufax and Don Drysdale. Calvin Griffith was so cheap we had to settle for Jim Friggin' Kaat.  ;)

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    LOL.

     

    I've just seen it for too many years. We all watched the last core of great Twins turn into nothing but a few division championships and playoff sweeps.

     

    We saw the core before that turn in one playoff series win. All the while they protected their pocketbooks and prospects and just ended up with a bunch of losing sandwiched between those division titles.

     

    I prefer to go for it. We all know the time is now. Why not us?

    The core that got swept in the ALDS with Johan Santana and Francisco Liriano leading the rotation, you mean?

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    Why do you want to see that they will pay whatever it takes. What proof do you have that this practice will result in success for a team that profiles (in terms of revenue) like the twins. Show me two examples of teams with equal or less revenue where they signed a FA starting pitcher to 5 or more years at $100M+ and went on to make it to the world series. Not win, just make it. There is a lot of protest here based on an assumption this would result in success.

     

    Prove it! Show me a team that has done it in the last 20 years.

     

    I don't know it will work. But you know what doesn't work? Doing nothing. 

     

    If you want to sit through another season of guys like Martin Perez, Devin Smeltzer, Randy Dobnak, etc. that's on you. 

     

    For once - JUST ONCE - I want to see them evaluate a guy the same as everyone else does, identify them as their top choice, and go after them hard. That might mean having to outbid the big boys. That might mean overpaying. That might mean making everyone in the front office nervous. I don't care. I want to see this team win at a high level and I want to see people stop giving them a free pass for "trying really hard" or for "coming in second."

     

    I'm not saying Wheeler is that guy. But someone has to be that guy for them and they need to go get him

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    I don't know it will work. But you know what doesn't work? Doing nothing. 

     

    If you want to sit through another season of guys like Martin Perez, Devin Smeltzer, Randy Dobnak, etc. that's on you. 

     

    For once - JUST ONCE - I want to see them evaluate a guy the same as everyone else does, identify them as their top choice, and go after them hard. That might mean having to outbid the big boys. That might mean overpaying. That might mean making everyone in the front office nervous. I don't care. I want to see this team win at a high level and I want to see people stop giving them a free pass for "trying really hard" or for "coming in second."

     

    I'm not saying Wheeler is that guy. But someone has to be that guy for them and they need to go get him

     

     

    My two least favorite whiney phrases: "doing nothing" and "not trying hard". Such nonsense!  ;)

     

    If you want to live in a myopic fantasy where the FO has "done nothing" and isn't really "trying hard"? That's on you.

     

    Ignore the fact that by doing nothing the team became THE organization to raid for management and coaching talent. Thank God Falvey said no thanks to Boston.

     

    Ignore that by doing nothing they ranked #4 in SI's power rankings, won 101 games, kept a top farm system intact, and, unlike teams like Boston, had the ability ("financial flexibility") and the will to be in the hunt to the end for Wheeler, albeit, according to you, without trying hard. Do we know anyone who expected them to win 100 games?

     

    We all want a big win here in FA, and that includes Falvine. Winning these bidding auctions is hard! If I have a criticism of Falvey, it's that MAYBE he's guilty of thinking it would be easier than it is to execute an off-season strategy of adding "impact pitching", their stated goal.

     

    Wheeler just wasn't the guy. Let's see what Falvey does next. It's his first rodeo of going after impact pitching in an off-season. There's a chance he miscalculates, but it won't be because he does nothing or doesn't try. If he fails, criticize the guy for the right reason.

     

    If you want to criticize him in advance, great, but expect guys like me to call you on it. In a friendly, respectful, but personal way.  ;)

     

    And recognize that you can count on two hands the examples where they got outbid by the "big boys" for a player who worked out, and you need a friggin' super computer to track the number of FA signings for where, given our revenues, we dodged a bullet that would have set the team back a couple spots in the standings for a couple of years at least.

     

    BTW, I'll sit through a season of 101 wins with a story like Randy Dobnak or Delvin Smeltzer every time! Just not both stories in one season please. ;)

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