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  • Every Team Wants Zack Wheeler


    Cody Christie

    Zack Wheeler is one of the most sought after free agents this off-season and there will be not shortage of teams interested in his services. Minnesota has been connected to Wheeler, but there is no guarantee that he will wind up in a Twins uniform. Let’s dive into the Wheeler market and see what could separate the Twins from his other offers.

    Image courtesy of © Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

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    Minnesota’s Advantages

    The Twins certainly seem to be on the cusp of something big with a rising young core and other supplemental veteran pieces. Last season, the team had a historically good offense and better pitching could have been the difference between a first-round exit and a long playoff run. Minnesota has Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi penciled into the rotation and this could be intriguing to perspective pitchers.

    Wheeler could view the Twins as launching point for the rest of his career. He could sign a short-term deal for a significant amount of money to help build his value. He won’t turn 30 until next May and some pitchers continue pitch well into their mid- to late-30s. Wheeler could improve himself in Minnesota before moving onto another club.

    Other Team’s Advantages

    Minnesota hasn’t made it out of the first round of the playoff since 2002 so a pitcher might want to sign on with a different team to have the opportunity move further into the playoffs. Also, the Twins don’t exactly have a lot of starting pitching depth at this point. There are plenty of minor league pitchers that earned opportunities last season, but there weren’t any pitchers that proved they should be guaranteed a rotation spot.

    The American League Central Division is also at a crossroads after dominating years from the Cleveland Indians. Cleveland won three consecutive division titles on the heels of a Kansas City World Series title and four straight Detroit division titles. Minnesota had been irrelevant for most of the decade and this might not exactly attract free agent arms to the Twin Cities.

    Free Agent Fit

    There are much bigger names on the free agent market like Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg. While the other teams are fighting over those two pitchers, the Twins could sweep in and sign Wheeler. Cole and Strasburg are coming off historically good seasons and they will get paid like front-line starters. However, Wheeler might not be seen as on the same level and this could allow other teams to sign him for a lesser value.

    According to reports, the Twins have already begun discussions with Wheeler and his camp. Wheeler averaged a career-high 96.1 mph with his fastball, and this helped him to collect nearly 200 strikeouts and a career-high 3.9 strikeout-to-walk ratio. With the help of Minnesota’s coaches, he might be able to make the next step and become an All-Star caliber pitcher.

    His strikeout percentage was lower than pitchers like Jose Berrios, Zack Greinke, and Hyun-Jin Ryu, but all of those players made an All-Star appearance. Fangraphs believes his fastball has more potential because of its horizontal break and his slider is also has room to grown. The potential is there for Wheeler to become the ace of a staff or at minimum, supplement the other pitchers that are already at the top of a rotation.

    Is Wheeler someone the Twins like well enough to outbid other teams? Would Wheeler be willing to come to Minnesota? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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    With all due respect, Van, I think you'd be more accurate if you said that 27 out of 30 teams have offered Wheeler less that the Twins.

     

    Okay. How many of those teams are coming off 101 wins and a 1st round playoff exit? And how many of those teams' leadership team made the bold proclamation they are targeting "impact pitching"?

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    this might be crazy, but hear me out....

     

    maybe zack wheeler doesn't want to pitch in minnesota.  maybe it doesn't matter how much money or years the twins offer.

     

    i never see it mentioned in these conversations, but the players ultimately choose where they want to go.  if wheeler or yu darvish or whoever else the twins have tried and failed to sign didn't want to play in minnesota, not much the FO can do about that. 

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    Putting pieces of the puzzle together. Doogie tweeted the Twins have offered Wheeler a contract, willing to go 5 years. Rosenthal and Ulney didn't have the Twins listed as a team in contention for Wheeler. Other Twins reporters on Twitter are saying the Twins are basically out of the running. 

     

    What does that mean to you? 

     

    That they there were at least six teams trying to get Wheeler and the Twins are one of the 5 that won't get him?

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    If I'm being honest, I'm ready for the Twins to pay someone stupid money - be it Wheeler or someone else.

     

    The reality is that they're going to have to overpay. Minnesota isn't a glamorous destination, so it's going to take something extra to do it. And I actually don't even care if it doesn't pan out, It would suck if it didn't, but I just want to see that they're willing to spend the money and take an actual risk to get someone to come here that isn't battling injuries or on the back 9 of their career.

     

    It's great that they're "in the running" on some of these guys, but as a fan it's tough to spend my money on them when they seemingly don't want to spend theirs on the product they're putting on the field.

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    this might be crazy, but hear me out....

     

    maybe zack wheeler doesn't want to pitch in minnesota.  maybe it doesn't matter how much money or years the twins offer.

     

    i never see it mentioned in these conversations, but the players ultimately choose where they want to go.  if wheeler or yu darvish or whoever else the twins have tried and failed to sign didn't want to play in minnesota, not much the FO can do about that. 

     

    its self defeating for us to say things like this, but its the grim truth....this isnt a desirable loacation/attractive location compared to most other MLB cities. We all can regurgitate the many reasons. Nothing is going to change that though. 

     

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    this might be crazy, but hear me out....

     

    maybe zack wheeler doesn't want to pitch in minnesota.  maybe it doesn't matter how much money or years the twins offer.

     

    i never see it mentioned in these conversations, but the players ultimately choose where they want to go.  if wheeler or yu darvish or whoever else the twins have tried and failed to sign didn't want to play in minnesota, not much the FO can do about that. 

    Isn't that a problem in and of itself? That players, free agents, DON'T want to come to Minnesota, no matter the years and money?

     

    Sorry pal, but that is an issue. It shouldn't be looked at as some comforting excuse or reason why the Twins can't land what people consider the "top" free agent(s) available.

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    The problem is, if you pass on all the other pitchers waiting around for Cole and A ) his offer ends up being something crazy like 275M or B ) he doesn't have interest in coming here, the team is screwed.

     

    As much as I want Cole, the Twins have to make sure they secure pitching help, and gambling that they can get the best pitcher in the game when he's ready to negotiate in February risks securing nothing.

    I am a realist and realize we will more than likely not end up with Cole. But for some reason, it feels like this is a year we have a chance. There are a lot of really good FA out there, both pitching and position-wise. Would not be surprised if the Yankees sign Cole. But I would also not be surprised if they signed Rendon or Castellanos/Didi instead...or went the Strasburg route instead.

     

    There are only so many teams that afford Cole right now. We are one. If we are ever going to throw an offer out there for an elite ace, now is the time to do it. There are not many opportunities like this.

     

    If Wheeler signs before Cole does, we add other pieces. Bumgarner, Ryu, Keuchel, Gausman, Aaron Sanchez, ect. I do not see a huge difference between Wheeler and those others. I see a HUGE difference between Cole and everyone else. Like, the difference between winning playoff series and not.

     

    *I am leaving Strasburg out, not because I do not like him, but because I am paranoid of his injury history. 

     

     

     

     

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    Isn't that a problem in and of itself? That players, free agents, DON'T want to come to Minnesota, no matter the years and money?

     

    Sorry pal, but that is an issue. It shouldn't be looked at as some comforting excuse or reason why the Twins can't land what people consider the "top" free agent(s) available.

     

    I didnt see the original post as an excuse, but more so a reality of the situation at large. I think we all on some level or another acknowledge this fact. How often do you hear Minnesotans THEMSELVES complaining about where they live? I rest my case. 

     

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    this might be crazy, but hear me out....

     

    maybe zack wheeler doesn't want to pitch in minnesota. maybe it doesn't matter how much money or years the twins offer.

     

    i never see it mentioned in these conversations, but the players ultimately choose where they want to go. if wheeler or yu darvish or whoever else the twins have tried and failed to sign didn't want to play in minnesota, not much the FO can do about that.

    I would love to hear one example of a player who turned down more money from the Twins to sign elsewhere. Though I think I may be dead before that happens.

     

    Free agency is really simple. Offer the most total money. You win the services of that player! Crazy concept.

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    Okay. How many of those teams are coming off 101 wins and a 1st round playoff exit? And how many of those teams' leadership team made the bold proclamation they are targeting "impact pitching"?

     

     

    Irrelevant to your earlier comment, which was I assume an understandable cocktail of sarcasm, frustration, snark, and belief, and not necessarily meant to be factual.

     

    I'm not defending Falvey because it's silly to either defend or criticize something that's in the future. They said they're pursuing impact pitching. We might be justified in criticizing them some time in the future for failing to execute. But I think it's entirely uncharitable to castigate them as "low bid again" villains, and that's kind of how you portrayed things based on the Wheeler tweets. A bit unfair, I say.

     

    Thad made a rather matter-of-fact comment, not some bold proclamation. He was pretty restrained, I thought, and maybe we should return that favor. I'm gonna wait before heating up the tar.

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    Low bid was my exact term, not least money. And they are the low bid if they’re out of the running.

     

    You don't know that. The Rangers were out before the Twins. There will soon be 29 teams out of the running. We likely will never know all of the offers and we will likely never know all of Wheeler's preferences and demands.

     

    If the Twins don't get Wheeler, can't we just be disappointed that we didn't get him without having to over-villainize someone?

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    You don't know that. The Rangers were out before the Twins. There will soon be 29 teams out of the running. We likely will never know all of the offers and we will likely never know all of Wheeler's preferences and demands.

     

    If the Twins don't get Wheeler, can't we just be disappointed that we didn't get him without having to over-villainize someone?

     

    Like I said, just putting pieces of the puzzle together. I'll keep repeating this. Free agency is really simple! Offer the most total money, and the player will sign. Just ask the Cincinnati Reds. 

     

    Also, hey, if it makes you feel better that the Twins finished 3rd in the Wheeler sweepstakes I'm not going to stop you! I'm so very tired of just being "in" on a player. I'd very much like to sign one to help win games. 

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    Like I said, just putting pieces of the puzzle together. I'll keep repeating this. Free agency is really simple! Offer the most total money, and the player will sign. Just ask the Cincinnati Reds. 

     

    Also, hey, if it makes you feel better that the Twins finished 3rd in the Wheeler sweepstakes I'm not going to stop you! I'm so very tired of just being "in" on a player. I'd very much like to sign one to help win games. 

     

    You're missing 90% of the pieces, and free agency is not that simple. 

     

    And it doesn't make me feel better. I wan't Wheeler, but I'm not going to go pointing fingers when we know nothing about what's going on.

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    I would love to hear one example of a player who turned down more money from the Twins to sign elsewhere. Though I think I may be dead before that happens.

    Free agency is really simple. Offer the most total money. You win the services of that player! Crazy concept.

     

     

    IMO, this is simply a false argument. It's fair to say that most athletes, in most sports, are conditioned to take the most money almost regardless of location, but it's naive to think money is the ONLY factor. Players take less money to go to a more highly preferred destination all the time.

     

    If all they cared about was the money, why would no-trade clauses even exist? Agents drive the process of course, so they're motivated to steer athletes to the most cash and to use the tactic of "you deserve more than X player", but players and their families think about other things. Hamels signed a one year deal. Why? His choice. He has said he wants a year at a time because he doesn't want the guilt of underperforming should another injury come along. He was projected by MLBTradeRumors to be in line for 2/42 IIRC.

     

    The Twins do not use geography as an excuse, thankfully, and most of us don't either. But the point is, it's crazier to think these decisions are simple and only come down to money. If it did, even for Wheeler, he would have looked at his caller ID and ignored the phone when Baldelli called him. As an aside, I guess it's too bad Martin Perez picked up the phone and then took a low bid from the Twins.

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    Like whom in trade? Because there aren't many good pitchers on bad teams, not that will be available

     

    Yeah, going with conventional trade targets may not open many doors, might have to be quite a bit outside the box to entice a less predictable trade partner. I'm still interested in guys with top end stuff who maybe haven't reached their potential.

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    i don't know how to post tweets or i would, but marc craig at the athletic tweeted that wheeler signed with the phillies and specifically mentioned staying near new jersey where wheeler's wife is from.

     

    seems to me, that's a non-monetary consideration.

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    Wheeler chose Philly. That's where my daughter lives. Her fiance commutes an hour each day to work in New Jersey, where Wheeler's wife's family lives.

     

    You can decide to believe money was the only factor Wheeler considered. You can decide that the Twins should have stunned him with an offer Wheeler could not refuse. You can decide location had nothing to do with his decision.

     

    Evidence suggests NYY, TEX, NYM were out of the running before the Twins, who were apparently eliminated about the same time as CWS were. CIN missed out too.

     

    You can decide the Twins were low bidders. You can decide they were cheap and low-balled Wheeler just to create the false appearance that they tried.

     

    I'm looking forward to hearing all of these criticisms.  :D

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    Wheeler chose Philly. That's where my daughter lives. Her fiance commutes an hour each day to work in New Jersey, where Wheeler's wife's family lives.

     

    You can decide to believe money was the only factor Wheeler considered. You can decide that the Twins should have stunned him with an offer Wheeler could not refuse. You can decide location had nothing to do with his decision.

     

    Evidence suggests NYY, TEX, NYM were out of the running before the Twins, who were apparently eliminated about the same time as CWS were. CIN missed out too.

     

    You can decide the Twins were low bidders. You can decide they were cheap and low-balled Wheeler just to create the false appearance that they tried.

     

    I'm looking forward to hearing all of these criticisms. :D

    criticisms in the eyes of some.

     

    Just like we'll see what are considered excuses by others.

     

    It's another failure to address the pitching, if you ask me. "Circumstances" matter not, in the end.

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    Teams don’t offer $100 million contracts for optics.

     

    And I’ve been a fan since the early 90s.

    I’d be willing to wager a decent amount that Johan Santana, given the perspective of history, wishes he had accepted the Twins’ 5/100 offer.

     

    Things could have turned out a lot differently for him if he had stayed with the Twins.

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