Ervin Santana: To Trade Or Not To Trade?

Dozier is not all the expendable though, at least not until mid next year.

Can the Twins win without Dozier? I think they can. This makes him expendable in my view.

How much worse do you think the Twins would be without him?

Few people want to trade Dozier but when your rotation includes Gibson and Turley and your MI depth includes Escobar and Adrianza in addition to a top prospect in AA. If I can land a good SP'ing prospect or two for Dozier then I would seriously consider the deal.

Gibson and Turley are not even the worst of the problem. You still have Santiago and Hughes to contend with.

The problem is what has changed since last winter in the trade market for 2B? If only one team was interested and set the price at De Leon, who else is going to pay more when there hasn't been a significant injury to a star 2B? 

That's the past. There is no telling what will be on the table in the future.

Imagine if a baseball GM spent his time second guessing everything as you are now.

which is why you call him up in a year you aren't a real contender, to get him exposure.

 

Going to count on Gonsalves or anyone else next year from AA? Get them up this year to get a taste. Otherwise, you think they'll go with 2 rookies?

Prospect promotion shouldn't be determined by MLB need. I would feel confident that neither has developed enough to be ready to promote. For example, neither Gonsalves nor Romero have pitched a full season in AA yet and they aren't elite so skipping AAA would likely be a setback this year AND next year.

Optimistically they are the AAA pitchers that replace whichever injured/ineffective pitchers the Twins have next year. Promoting them doesn't really speed up that timetable. The Twins will likely have to look elsewhere to fill the rotation imo. But at least there is the prospect of a pair of pretty good prospects coming up at some point next season.

I would like to see one or both brought up in the bullpen at the end of the season to get an MLB taste and potentially add a useful arm down the stretch. I wish they had done this with Berrios also.

The problem is what has changed since last winter in the trade market for 2B? If only one team was interested and set the price at De Leon, who else is going to pay more when there hasn't been a significant injury to a star 2B? 

So far this is true but I am just saying that Dozier is somewhat expendable to the Twins while Ervin is at a position of dire need.

Alternatively they could trade Escobar to a team needing a SS. The potential for that trade isn't as high but maybe a team offers a Nunez/Mejia type of trade for him. I think Escobar is better than Nunez but I think the Giants overpayed for Nunez so maybe that balances it out.

so where do you get your 2nd or 3rd pitcher for next year, then?

Pitching is a big problem and that is why I don't trade Ervin away now (unless blown away). I don't try to make the problem even worse.

You hit on the biggest problem with this whole thought experiment.

 

A trade of Santana for prospects that are going to step in and perform sounds lovely, but breaks down when you have to match that an actual team with the actual assets that have and are willing to move, while also keeping in mind that there are other pitchers going to be floating out there.

Who are they signing in FA to solidify this staff?

How long does Ervin pitch like a Cy Young candidate?

Are we counting on him to pitch like this at 36 years of age in 2019?

Which direction does Mejia go?

Hughes and Gibson may potentially have to contribute as starters?

Romero and Gonsalves haven't spent a full season at AA yet but one may be starting the season with the Twins?

The questions and uncertainty that are causing a break down are abundant on both sides. 

I struggle to see a team that would trade a current mlb pitcher for a 2b, even one as solid as Dozier. That exists even less than a team that would give 1 or 2 pitchers for Ervin.

But trading Dozier for a P prospect makes more sense. Santana can stick around while the prospect learns the ropes.

Trading Santana for a prospect is moving backward.

Absolutely. But those are performance based things rather than theoretical trade returns that won't actually exist.

Both are theoretical scenarios. A return for Santana exists, the question is whether the Twins can make a deal happen. The same goes for all the above pitching scenarios and whether they work out in the Twins favor. 

I still don't like subtracting from a first place team for prospects. Perhaps they could pull off a three team trade.

I see your point, and a three team trade might do the trick.

We'll see.

A return for Santana does exist, but not one that is going to put meaningful pitching in the org by next year. If you trade Santana, you are kicking back your window for a couple of seasons, and that is only if the acquired asset (or assets) work out. And for that to be successful even then, you would need most of that above list of scenarios (outside of Santana's continued success) to happen anyways.

 

This isn't either make a trade or a bunch of stuff has to happen scenario. A bunch of stuff is going to have to happen for sustained/significant success either way.

We'll disagree on the first sentence and agree on the last paragraph.

I struggle to see a team that would trade a current mlb pitcher for a 2b, even one as solid as Dozier. That exists even less than a team that would give 1 or 2 pitchers for Ervin.

I still don't like subtracting from a first place team for prospects. Perhaps they could pull off a three team trade.

In general yes but the need for pitching is so dire this year and next year that downgrading to Escobar and getting back 1-2 very good AA pitching prospects is defensible imo. I can understand your stance also but this team needs pitching really bad.