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While payroll discussions dominate every Minnesota Twins offseason. It seems Eddie Rosario comes in as a close second in recent years when it comes to offseason conversation starters. The Puerto Rican has the unique ability of polarizing the baseball traditionalists against the more analytic concerned fans like no other.
While Rosario continues to be one of the most popular players on the Twins roster. He faces an offseason that could see him jettisoned in favor of a number of cheaper and younger outfielders. The crazy thing is, in a day before analytics, the Twins have had to essentially make this decision before. Was a popular, good hitting outfielder with some defensive limitations and a free swinging spirit worth the money it would take to keep him around?
It was 2005 and the Terry Ryan led Twins had just finished 3rd in the AL Central after going 83-79. Jacque Jones was set to be a free agent. The Twins had to decide if the fan favorite was worth the money it would take to keep him around. That is the same question facing Falvey and Levine this offseason and the cases for both players is eerily similar.
For starters, here are the two outfielders’ career numbers:
Almost identical. Jones was slightly better at getting on base, while Rosario has displayed slightly more power. All in all, very similar.
Both players also struggled to take walks until they both saw an uptick in their walk rates right before the offseason in question.
Defensively, both could in theory play center field but had elite defensive center fielders lining up next to them (Torii Hunter and Byron Buxton). Ultimately, neither versions of the Twins would have wanted Rosario or Jones to line up in center too often. Their defensive WAR was very similar with Jones through his first seven seasons sitting at -1.3 and Rosario through his first six at -1.5 defensive WAR.
Defensive analytics are alway a bit tricky to navigate. Interestingly, while the two are similar in defensive WAR, DRS favors Rosario considerably.
In his pre-analytic world, Jones was beloved with little questioning of his abilities in comparison to the critiques that Rosario goes up against. Now it is worth mentioning that after the Twins decided not to offer more than a one year deal to Jones, his career took a considerable dip with the Cubs.
Meanwhile the 2006 Twins were able to field a team that would go on to take first in the AL Central. They moved Michael Cuddyer more permanently to the outfield and weathered a Shannon Stewart injury by playing Lew Ford in left and giving Jason Kubel more DH at-bats. The 2006 team was able to find success and the 2021 Twins, even without any moves, looks much better prepared to withstand losing their veteran outfielder with all the young outfield talent seemingly waiting in the wings.
If there is a case to signing Rosario that differentiates him from Jones it is his charisma. Rosario has that fire and energy that while the going is good seems to energize a squad. With Cruz potentially leaving and Josh Donaldson seemingly always a wrong step away from that calf acting up, maybe that charisma quality is worth enough to consider a different path for Rosario than the one taken with Jones.
Should the Twins follow the Jones route with a similar player in Rosario or should it be a priority to tender or even extend Rosario this offseason?
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