Economics, Baseball, and the Value of Pitching

Excellent article!  Sadly you used the term economics and too many will be confused by the lack of a lazy, false  argument about 'cheap Pohlads'.

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

High demand, low supply, high injury frequency will produce incredible costs to acquire very little. 

The Twins currently have 9 decent starters. Other teams are stock piling starters beyond 5 because nobody can keep them healthy. 

This just increases the demand and lowers the supply even more. 

If you are going to corner a market... this is the corner to focus on. 

This sounds like insanity! Are pitchers being coached to stress their arms and bodies beyond what is physically sustainable? I don't have any knowledge on the matter, just putting the question out there.

This sounds like insanity! Are pitchers being coached to stress their arms and bodies beyond what is physically sustainable? I don't have any knowledge on the matter, just putting the question out there.

Ummm.....yes

15 minutes ago, miracleb said:

This sounds like insanity! Are pitchers being coached to stress their arms and bodies beyond what is physically sustainable? I don't have any knowledge on the matter, just putting the question out there.

 

Ummm.....yes

I truly believe that injuries are up, have not done the full research just basic observation.  It could be that we only hear more about it because back in the day if you tore your UCL in the minors or early in career, you were basically done, now it is the norm to get the surgery and come back.  The guys that could pitch at high level that did not tear it were the ones we saw.  I cannot say pitchers are doing more than the prior generations have been asked to do.  It would be interesting to look back years ago and see how many people tore the UCL and we just never heard of them because they never made it to majors.  

The other reason I believe so is that overall velo is up.  I remember when average FB was like 89 to 90, back in the 90's.  Then you had guys like Ryan and Clemons that were throwing much faster, and many more pitches per outing.  I remember when a guy throwing 95 was heat, and if they could get to upper 90's it was rare.  Now, if you cannot hit 100 or more you are not a power FB guy.  I believe this is leading to additional stress on arms that lead to more injuries.  The moment a guy loses 1 or 2 MPH on FB their careers are considered over, unless they become a junk baller that still can get outs, but they normally get passed on for high velo guys. 

The art of pitching has changed, for better or worse, and we just need to adjust to it.  I remember the old school guys would talk about trying to get that little extra when needed, but would really try to coast by when could.  Now, it seems every inning they are going for that extra, and the Twins are basically preaching to go all out for 5 innings, and then turn over to pen.  

In part I think pitchers are so concerned about K's per 9 because that is what people are looking at for effectiveness.  It also affects FIP so much and teams are paying for FIP more than ERA now.  So why take it easy on a light hitting guy using 1 pitch to get him out by throwing it over hoping they get the quick out, when using 6 or 7 pitches to get the K will get you paid more. 

1 hour ago, NotAboutWinning said:

This sounds like insanity! Are pitchers being coached to stress their arms and bodies beyond what is physically sustainable? I don't have any knowledge on the matter, just putting the question out there.

That is an excellent question NotAbout. I have been thinking that also. In fact I posted something about that yesterday.

27 minutes ago, Trov said:

I truly believe that injuries are up, have not done the full research just basic observation.  It could be that we only hear more about it because back in the day if you tore your UCL in the minors or early in career, you were basically done, now it is the norm to get the surgery and come back.  The guys that could pitch at high level that did not tear it were the ones we saw.  I cannot say pitchers are doing more than the prior generations have been asked to do.  It would be interesting to look back years ago and see how many people tore the UCL and we just never heard of them because they never made it to majors.  

The other reason I believe so is that overall velo is up.  I remember when average FB was like 89 to 90, back in the 90's.  Then you had guys like Ryan and Clemons that were throwing much faster, and many more pitches per outing.  I remember when a guy throwing 95 was heat, and if they could get to upper 90's it was rare.  Now, if you cannot hit 100 or more you are not a power FB guy.  I believe this is leading to additional stress on arms that lead to more injuries.  The moment a guy loses 1 or 2 MPH on FB their careers are considered over, unless they become a junk baller that still can get outs, but they normally get passed on for high velo guys. 

The art of pitching has changed, for better or worse, and we just need to adjust to it.  I remember the old school guys would talk about trying to get that little extra when needed, but would really try to coast by when could.  Now, it seems every inning they are going for that extra, and the Twins are basically preaching to go all out for 5 innings, and then turn over to pen.  

In part I think pitchers are so concerned about K's per 9 because that is what people are looking at for effectiveness.  It also affects FIP so much and teams are paying for FIP more than ERA now.  So why take it easy on a light hitting guy using 1 pitch to get him out by throwing it over hoping they get the quick out, when using 6 or 7 pitches to get the K will get you paid more. 

Plus there are less contact hitters and more guys getting paid big bucks to hit home runs. We have HR derbies. We do not have derbies  for singles hitters to slap balls into circles in the OF. More and more now, pitch to contact  results in a homerun.

Good post Andrew. I received my economics degree from the University of North Carolina. Unlike many of the other subjects which I took in college, economics just always made sense to me. And so did your fine article. Thank you for writing it. 

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I was sleeping in med school so I really can't answer this question... However, my assumption is yes. 

People like to talk about the old days and how pitchers used to be able to throw a million innings a year but we are at a whole new level now from the old days. 

It was celebrated decades ago if the rare pitcher hit 97 mph. 100... maybe 1 or 2. We got a bunch of those guys now. Is this more than the human body is capable of sustaining? ... like I said... I was sleeping in med school but my assumption is Yes. 

If we have seen an increase in the 100 mph arms... you have to assume that everyone has bumped up their ceilings.

The 94 mph guy from yesteryear is throwing 100 now. The 87 MPH guy from yesteryear is hitting 93MPH and maybe that is beyond his sustainability. 

Today's play throws harder, runs faster, jumps higher than the player from past decades. Maybe we have crossed a line. 

Just spitballing because I was sleeping in med school.  

Good points River.  Speaking of sleeping during med school, at my last colonoscopy, the doctor walked into the operating room before I was put to sleep. He asked me how I was doing. I said I was doing fine. He proceeded to tell he he had been up all night drinking. I guess that is an old  gastroenterologist joke. 

6 hours ago, Trov said:

I truly believe that injuries are up, have not done the full research just basic observation.  It could be that we only hear more about it because back in the day if you tore your UCL in the minors or early in career, you were basically done, now it is the norm to get the surgery and come back.  The guys that could pitch at high level that did not tear it were the ones we saw.  I cannot say pitchers are doing more than the prior generations have been asked to do.  It would be interesting to look back years ago and see how many people tore the UCL and we just never heard of them because they never made it to majors.  

The other reason I believe so is that overall velo is up.  I remember when average FB was like 89 to 90, back in the 90's.  Then you had guys like Ryan and Clemons that were throwing much faster, and many more pitches per outing.  I remember when a guy throwing 95 was heat, and if they could get to upper 90's it was rare.  Now, if you cannot hit 100 or more you are not a power FB guy.  I believe this is leading to additional stress on arms that lead to more injuries.  The moment a guy loses 1 or 2 MPH on FB their careers are considered over, unless they become a junk baller that still can get outs, but they normally get passed on for high velo guys. 

The art of pitching has changed, for better or worse, and we just need to adjust to it.  I remember the old school guys would talk about trying to get that little extra when needed, but would really try to coast by when could.  Now, it seems every inning they are going for that extra, and the Twins are basically preaching to go all out for 5 innings, and then turn over to pen.  

In part I think pitchers are so concerned about K's per 9 because that is what people are looking at for effectiveness.  It also affects FIP so much and teams are paying for FIP more than ERA now.  So why take it easy on a light hitting guy using 1 pitch to get him out by throwing it over hoping they get the quick out, when using 6 or 7 pitches to get the K will get you paid more. 

The major surgeries are up, probably partly because they're getting better and more reliable and maybe because there are more injuries because larger guys are closer to the extremes of what the body can do. Some we will never know for sure.

But there is injury data to be had that's pretty cool. I included the link below on a different thread around here a week or two ago and you should go out and look through it. 

Quote

Jon Roegele, a SABR researcher writing for the Hardball Times in 2018, did an article on Tommy John surgery that said 26 percent of major league pitchers used in 2017 had undergone Tommy John surgery.  Today that percentage is 34%, and that's only the most serious elbow work, not shoulder, back, knee or hand injuries. His updated raw data is online here and it's fascinating. He's got every TJ surgery that he can confirm for MLB and MiLB players, including a list of unconfirmed and pending surgeries.  Pitchers break, and break badly, all the time. 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gQujXQQGOVNaiuwSN680Hq-FDVsCwvN-3AazykOBON0/edit#gid=0

3 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Good points River.  Speaking of sleeping during med school, at my last colonoscopy, the doctor walked into the operating room before I was put to sleep. He asked me how I was doing. I said I was doing fine. He proceeded to tell he he had been up all night drinking. I guess that is an old  gastroenterologist joke. 

About a year after my first colonoscopy I happened to encounter the gastroenterologist who performed the procedure. I introduced myself and told him how I knew who he was. He said he was sorry that he didn't recognize me because he was not very good at remembering faces. (His emphasis, not mine.) I'm sure that having a sense of humor is helpful if you are a gastroenterologist.